A thread of optimism: why do you think Trump will win in 2020?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Those who think Trump will win again in 2020 (a hex on your souls):

What do you make of the 2018 midterms? Do you think that they weren't quire as good for Democrats as the Democrats and regular analysis seems to think?

Do you think that was an anomaly but the women who voted in Democrats in the midterms will come home to the Republican party in 2020 - and if so why?

You don't need to say the word "borders" or "wall" or "ILLEGALS" because I will just assume that is part of your reasoning. I'd really just like to hear how you incorporate the 2018 blue wave into your analysis.

Not as complex as you seem to believe.

Obama had much more of a thumping in 2010, and still won in 2012.

Same with Clinton if I recall.

The mid-terms tend to have lower participation rates and different dynamics than presidential elections.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I predict Trump will win the electoral college and lose the popular vote again.

Not with approval never crossing 43% since he took over.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

And certainly not when his approval has fallen in every single state since he took over. He is deeply negative in PA,WI,MI,IA,AZ and behind in NC,FL and up by slim margin in GA and TX. Can you imagine that the battle is gonna be fought in TX?
https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

I doubt he was much more popular before the election and still he won.

Sometimes voters vote to the lesser of two evils, even if they don't fully "approve" either.

Thats the kind of BS only the "poorly educated" cult 45 members could believe in.

If not for Comey opening Hillary email case 10 days before election, we would have been saved from the worst "precedent" in American history. No such luck this time. Hillary isn't on the ballot and pretty much any top dem candidate is beating the conman, especially Biden.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Those who think Trump will win again in 2020 (a hex on your souls):

What do you make of the 2018 midterms? Do you think that they weren't quire as good for Democrats as the Democrats and regular analysis seems to think?

Do you think that was an anomaly but the women who voted in Democrats in the midterms will come home to the Republican party in 2020 - and if so why?

You don't need to say the word "borders" or "wall" or "ILLEGALS" because I will just assume that is part of your reasoning. I'd really just like to hear how you incorporate the 2018 blue wave into your analysis.

Not as complex as you seem to believe.

Obama had much more of a thumping in 2010, and still won in 2012.

Same with Clinton if I recall.

The mid-terms tend to have lower participation rates and different dynamics than presidential elections.

You are wrong about participation, as the "poorly educated" often are. 2018 midterm participation was the highest in over a century.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/23/trumps-midterm-rebuke-came-most-diverse-electorate-history/?utm_term=.01052bb38f24

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Those who think Trump will win again in 2020 (a hex on your souls):

What do you make of the 2018 midterms? Do you think that they weren't quire as good for Democrats as the Democrats and regular analysis seems to think?

Do you think that was an anomaly but the women who voted in Democrats in the midterms will come home to the Republican party in 2020 - and if so why?

You don't need to say the word "borders" or "wall" or "ILLEGALS" because I will just assume that is part of your reasoning. I'd really just like to hear how you incorporate the 2018 blue wave into your analysis.

Not as complex as you seem to believe.

Obama had much more of a thumping in 2010, and still won in 2012.

Same with Clinton if I recall.

The mid-terms tend to have lower participation rates and different dynamics than presidential elections.

You are wrong about participation, as the "poorly educated" often are. 2018 midterm participation was the highest in over a century.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/23/trumps-midterm-rebuke-came-most-diverse-electorate-history/?utm_term=.01052bb38f24

Still lower than 2016, right?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Those who think Trump will win again in 2020 (a hex on your souls):

What do you make of the 2018 midterms? Do you think that they weren't quire as good for Democrats as the Democrats and regular analysis seems to think?

Do you think that was an anomaly but the women who voted in Democrats in the midterms will come home to the Republican party in 2020 - and if so why?

You don't need to say the word "borders" or "wall" or "ILLEGALS" because I will just assume that is part of your reasoning. I'd really just like to hear how you incorporate the 2018 blue wave into your analysis.

Good luck trying to have a reasonable, factual debate with the cult 45 idiots. They don't even agree that Russia helped Trump elect and that Trump admin didn't report to FBI the multiple invitations from Russia to collude.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Those who think Trump will win again in 2020 (a hex on your souls):

What do you make of the 2018 midterms? Do you think that they weren't quire as good for Democrats as the Democrats and regular analysis seems to think?

Do you think that was an anomaly but the women who voted in Democrats in the midterms will come home to the Republican party in 2020 - and if so why?

You don't need to say the word "borders" or "wall" or "ILLEGALS" because I will just assume that is part of your reasoning. I'd really just like to hear how you incorporate the 2018 blue wave into your analysis.

Not as complex as you seem to believe.

Obama had much more of a thumping in 2010, and still won in 2012.

Same with Clinton if I recall.

The mid-terms tend to have lower participation rates and different dynamics than presidential elections.

You are wrong about participation, as the "poorly educated" often are. 2018 midterm participation was the highest in over a century.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/23/trumps-midterm-rebuke-came-most-diverse-electorate-history/?utm_term=.01052bb38f24

Still lower than 2016, right?

But how do you account for Democrats also having likely higher turnout in 2020? Democrats are - as far as I can see - super motivated this time around.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Those who think Trump will win again in 2020 (a hex on your souls):

What do you make of the 2018 midterms? Do you think that they weren't quire as good for Democrats as the Democrats and regular analysis seems to think?

Do you think that was an anomaly but the women who voted in Democrats in the midterms will come home to the Republican party in 2020 - and if so why?

You don't need to say the word "borders" or "wall" or "ILLEGALS" because I will just assume that is part of your reasoning. I'd really just like to hear how you incorporate the 2018 blue wave into your analysis.

Not as complex as you seem to believe.

Obama had much more of a thumping in 2010, and still won in 2012.

Same with Clinton if I recall.

The mid-terms tend to have lower participation rates and different dynamics than presidential elections.

You are wrong about participation, as the "poorly educated" often are. 2018 midterm participation was the highest in over a century.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/23/trumps-midterm-rebuke-came-most-diverse-electorate-history/?utm_term=.01052bb38f24

Still lower than 2016, right?

How does that matter? You compare midterms with midterms. Rest assured 2020 will be the highest in presidential election history in a long time. And the electorate is 2-3% fewer whites and the same level increase in hispanic-Asian votes. It doesn't look for someone who lost by 3 million votes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Those who think Trump will win again in 2020 (a hex on your souls):

What do you make of the 2018 midterms? Do you think that they weren't quire as good for Democrats as the Democrats and regular analysis seems to think?

Do you think that was an anomaly but the women who voted in Democrats in the midterms will come home to the Republican party in 2020 - and if so why?

You don't need to say the word "borders" or "wall" or "ILLEGALS" because I will just assume that is part of your reasoning. I'd really just like to hear how you incorporate the 2018 blue wave into your analysis.

Not as complex as you seem to believe.

Obama had much more of a thumping in 2010, and still won in 2012.

Same with Clinton if I recall.

The mid-terms tend to have lower participation rates and different dynamics than presidential elections.

You are wrong about participation, as the "poorly educated" often are. 2018 midterm participation was the highest in over a century.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/23/trumps-midterm-rebuke-came-most-diverse-electorate-history/?utm_term=.01052bb38f24

Still lower than 2016, right?

But how do you account for Democrats also having likely higher turnout in 2020? Democrats are - as far as I can see - super motivated this time around.

I don't have a crystal ball, it's way too early to even try to predict turnout.

Imagine for example it's Bernie vs. Trump. I suspect many moderate Dems would remain home, and most center to right voters would show up to vote Trump.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Those who think Trump will win again in 2020 (a hex on your souls):

What do you make of the 2018 midterms? Do you think that they weren't quire as good for Democrats as the Democrats and regular analysis seems to think?

Do you think that was an anomaly but the women who voted in Democrats in the midterms will come home to the Republican party in 2020 - and if so why?

You don't need to say the word "borders" or "wall" or "ILLEGALS" because I will just assume that is part of your reasoning. I'd really just like to hear how you incorporate the 2018 blue wave into your analysis.

Not as complex as you seem to believe.

Obama had much more of a thumping in 2010, and still won in 2012.

Same with Clinton if I recall.

The mid-terms tend to have lower participation rates and different dynamics than presidential elections.

You are wrong about participation, as the "poorly educated" often are. 2018 midterm participation was the highest in over a century.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/23/trumps-midterm-rebuke-came-most-diverse-electorate-history/?utm_term=.01052bb38f24

Still lower than 2016, right?

But how do you account for Democrats also having likely higher turnout in 2020? Democrats are - as far as I can see - super motivated this time around.

I don't have a crystal ball, it's way too early to even try to predict turnout.

Imagine for example it's Bernie vs. Trump. I suspect many moderate Dems would remain home, and most center to right voters would show up to vote Trump.

But that's what I'm asking - how those who do predict Trump winning again (NO NO NO NO) incorporate 2018 into their analysis.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:No POC will vote for t-Rump in 2020. Same goes for women.

I'm a person of color and I will be voting for Trump in 2020. My wife, who I can assure you is an actual woman as she gave birth to our children, is also voting for Trump in 2020.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No POC will vote for t-Rump in 2020. Same goes for women.

I'm a person of color and I will be voting for Trump in 2020. My wife, who I can assure you is an actual woman as she gave birth to our children, is also voting for Trump in 2020.

Well you are one of the small minority. Vote for the conman, white supremacist all you want but he won't respect you.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No POC will vote for t-Rump in 2020. Same goes for women.

I'm a person of color and I will be voting for Trump in 2020. My wife, who I can assure you is an actual woman as she gave birth to our children, is also voting for Trump in 2020.

Well you are one of the small minority. Vote for the conman, white supremacist all you want but he won't respect you.

I suspect Trump respects PP more than you do.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Those who think Trump will win again in 2020 (a hex on your souls):

What do you make of the 2018 midterms? Do you think that they weren't quire as good for Democrats as the Democrats and regular analysis seems to think?

Do you think that was an anomaly but the women who voted in Democrats in the midterms will come home to the Republican party in 2020 - and if so why?

You don't need to say the word "borders" or "wall" or "ILLEGALS" because I will just assume that is part of your reasoning. I'd really just like to hear how you incorporate the 2018 blue wave into your analysis.

Not as complex as you seem to believe.

Obama had much more of a thumping in 2010, and still won in 2012.

Same with Clinton if I recall.

The mid-terms tend to have lower participation rates and different dynamics than presidential elections.

You are wrong about participation, as the "poorly educated" often are. 2018 midterm participation was the highest in over a century.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/23/trumps-midterm-rebuke-came-most-diverse-electorate-history/?utm_term=.01052bb38f24

Still lower than 2016, right?

But how do you account for Democrats also having likely higher turnout in 2020? Democrats are - as far as I can see - super motivated this time around.

Give it time. They are super motivated now because they are idealistic, and they've conjured up an image of what an ideal candidate the eventual Democratic nominee will be. They believe that man/woman is going to embody all that is good and wholesome about the intentions of the left. Just wait until the actual final candidates emerge. If 2016 is any indication, the potential nominees will tear each other apart and the corrupt Democratic party machine will all but ensure that the wrong candidate gets nominated. As we head into election day with a Democratic candidate with utterly no redeeming quality other than he/she is not Trump, any residual energy that Democratic voters feel will only keep them awake long enough to seek that Trump has won, again.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No POC will vote for t-Rump in 2020. Same goes for women.

I'm a person of color and I will be voting for Trump in 2020. My wife, who I can assure you is an actual woman as she gave birth to our children, is also voting for Trump in 2020.

Well you are one of the small minority. Vote for the conman, white supremacist all you want but he won't respect you.

I suspect Trump respects PP more than you do.

Oh yeah I don't respect any of the cult 45 members who care not about his constant lies, fraud, temper tantrum worse than a two year old, or his uncouth behavior. But race has nothing to do with it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Those who think Trump will win again in 2020 (a hex on your souls):

What do you make of the 2018 midterms? Do you think that they weren't quire as good for Democrats as the Democrats and regular analysis seems to think?

Do you think that was an anomaly but the women who voted in Democrats in the midterms will come home to the Republican party in 2020 - and if so why?

You don't need to say the word "borders" or "wall" or "ILLEGALS" because I will just assume that is part of your reasoning. I'd really just like to hear how you incorporate the 2018 blue wave into your analysis.

Not as complex as you seem to believe.

Obama had much more of a thumping in 2010, and still won in 2012.

Same with Clinton if I recall.

The mid-terms tend to have lower participation rates and different dynamics than presidential elections.

You are wrong about participation, as the "poorly educated" often are. 2018 midterm participation was the highest in over a century.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/23/trumps-midterm-rebuke-came-most-diverse-electorate-history/?utm_term=.01052bb38f24

Still lower than 2016, right?

But how do you account for Democrats also having likely higher turnout in 2020? Democrats are - as far as I can see - super motivated this time around.

Give it time. They are super motivated now because they are idealistic, and they've conjured up an image of what an ideal candidate the eventual Democratic nominee will be. They believe that man/woman is going to embody all that is good and wholesome about the intentions of the left. Just wait until the actual final candidates emerge. If 2016 is any indication, the potential nominees will tear each other apart and the corrupt Democratic party machine will all but ensure that the wrong candidate gets nominated. As we head into election day with a Democratic candidate with utterly no redeeming quality other than he/she is not Trump, any residual energy that Democratic voters feel will only keep them awake long enough to seek that Trump has won, again.

Not PP. Keep believing that. The dems came out and voted in droves in 2018 even before Mueller confirmed that the conman is a Russian puppet. 2018 was the highest participation in over 100 years of mid term elections. And the result was a 9% win and 45 seats gained.

2020 will be very similar. With the liar already a negative 3 million, and deep negative in PA,WI,MI,IA,AZ and it seems TX and GA are the new battle ground states.