Reply to A thread of optimism: why do you think Trump will win in 2020?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Those who think Trump will win again in 2020 (a hex on your souls):

What do you make of the 2018 midterms? Do you think that they weren't quire as good for Democrats as the Democrats and regular analysis seems to think?

Do you think that was an anomaly but the women who voted in Democrats in the midterms will come home to the Republican party in 2020 - and if so why?

You don't need to say the word "borders" or "wall" or "ILLEGALS" because I will just assume that is part of your reasoning. I'd really just like to hear how you incorporate the 2018 blue wave into your analysis.[/quote]

Not as complex as you seem to believe.

Obama had much more of a thumping in 2010, and still won in 2012.

Same with Clinton if I recall.

The mid-terms tend to have lower participation rates and different dynamics than presidential elections.[/quote]

You are wrong about participation, as the "poorly educated" often are. 2018 midterm participation was the highest in over a century.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/23/trumps-midterm-rebuke-came-most-diverse-electorate-history/?utm_term=.01052bb38f24[/quote]

Still lower than 2016, right?[/quote]

But how do you account for Democrats also having likely higher turnout in 2020? Democrats are - as far as I can see - super motivated this time around.[/quote]

I don't have a crystal ball, it's way too early to even try to predict turnout.

Imagine for example it's Bernie vs. Trump. I suspect many moderate Dems would remain home, and most center to right voters would show up to vote Trump.[/quote]

But that's what I'm asking - how those who do predict Trump winning again (NO NO NO NO) incorporate 2018 into their analysis.[/quote]

I'll tell you why. Mid-year elections following a new president's election typically swing opposite of the new president's party. This is true of past presidents and it was true for Trump. I will concede that Republican's loses in 2018 were quite severe, even when put in historical context. I believe this was true because 2018 was the first opportunity that Democrats really got to act out what they believe was an unfathomable 2016 election result. Democrats were going strong on the Russian collusion theory, and Mueller was handing out indictments left and right.[/quote]

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