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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Those who think Trump will win again in 2020 (a hex on your souls):

What do you make of the 2018 midterms? Do you think that they weren't quire as good for Democrats as the Democrats and regular analysis seems to think?

Do you think that was an anomaly but the women who voted in Democrats in the midterms will come home to the Republican party in 2020 - and if so why?

You don't need to say the word "borders" or "wall" or "ILLEGALS" because I will just assume that is part of your reasoning. I'd really just like to hear how you incorporate the 2018 blue wave into your analysis.[/quote]

Not as complex as you seem to believe.

Obama had much more of a thumping in 2010, and still won in 2012.

Same with Clinton if I recall.

The mid-terms tend to have lower participation rates and different dynamics than presidential elections.[/quote]

You are wrong about participation, as the "poorly educated" often are. 2018 midterm participation was the highest in over a century.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/23/trumps-midterm-rebuke-came-most-diverse-electorate-history/?utm_term=.01052bb38f24[/quote]

Still lower than 2016, right?[/quote]

But how do you account for Democrats also having likely higher turnout in 2020? Democrats are - as far as I can see - super motivated this time around.[/quote]

The election is 1.5 years away. That's a long time for excitement to fizzle [/quote]

Not with the liar-in-chief reminding people how bad he is with every tweet, temper tantrums, constant stream of lies, and the Russian drip drip. [/quote]

Trump is the same person he was during the 2016 campaign.  Nothing new and was still elected.

Mueller Investigation is done. No impeachment on the horizon. You are dreaming [/quote]

1) Mueller CLEARLY SAID THE CONMAN isn't exonerated. 
2) Nationwide approval in low 40s
3) Statewide approval terrible in all the 3 states he won by grand total of 75k votes. 
4) He Lost the popular vote by 3 million votes. 
5) Hillary lost because of Comey announcing 10 days before election that the email case is re-opened. No such scenario again and Hillary not on the ballot.
6) Russia drip drip isn't over. Manafort,Stone cases continuing.
7) A dozen cases are going on about trump properties. His fraud charity shut down.
8) Tax return is coming out one way or another. NY state has cleared the path for release of state taxes.
9) Dems won 2018 by record margin with record turnout.
10) Since 2016 the electorate is 3% less white and the same percent more Asian-hispanic who vote over 70% for Dem.
11) Since 2016 the GOP voting silent gen(over 75) who vote over 66% GOP are replaced by GenZ voters who vote 66% for Dem.
12) The GOP has won the popular vote just once in over 30 years. Not a healthy party since Most Americans aren't backing the Fraud party.

Now let us see if you can rebut each one of those points by data and reasoning alone. 
[/quote]

DP: many of those points are quite infantile and still full of too much senseless name-calling, so I have zero interest in a point-by-point discussion.

Instead, let me ask you this: back in May of 2015, who did you think would win in November of 2016, and for what 12 reasons?

My point is, it's way too early in the process to engage in such nuanced analysis.

Now, a new factor at play, that many PPs have described very well, is that for a number of reasons Trump's results have so far been better than expected. I understand you believe the opposite, but I'd encourage you to use this thread to learn more about what other people think.

It should help you find the most appropriate Dem challenger and platform :-)
[/quote]

Yeah sure, infantile for the "poorly educated" that the conman loves. You have Zero interest in any discussion because all you and your cult can do is demean others BUT never can make a reasonable data based discussion. I can't learn much from the conned infantiles who support a conman, liar and destroyer of America and the worst "Precedent" in American history. Good Bye.

[/quote]

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