Who do you think is going to win and why?

[Anonymous]

I told my friend in Sept I thought Kamala would win by a landslide because of Roe v Wade.

Now moving into Nov, I think it'll be very close.

I think Kamala would've won if she stuck to hyping how great Kamala is v. how awful Trump is. Once she reverted back to the Dem playbook of fear, she slid.

She is a better candidate than Trump in many ways but I'm not sure if she deserves to win if she loses. This election was 100% hers to win or lose - she's running v a convicted felon. If she can't win, she deserves to lose.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

So... for the good of the country is a guy who had the job previously and while on the job he had the opportunity to step up and be the Commander-in-Chief he was elected to be during the most significant national security threat on our country's soil since 9/11. What did Trump do in that moment? He sat in The White House watching the event unfold on TV while ignoring all pleas for help and guidance for 187 minutes while a mob of hundreds that had stormed through security at the US Capitol Building were roaming the halls looking for prominent US leaders to "hang". For 187 minutes Trump did nothing. Sitting POTUS wouldn't take a phone call in that moment. You and your family moronically voted for a Coward-in-Chief. Pea-brained idiots.

Wow.
Here we go again ... the tolerant left.

His former staff, house members, military, VP, former president do not tolerate him and endorsed Harris.

Some endorse Harris and some who would otherwise support all GOP candidates are just refusing to support Trump due to his clear lack of integrity. Basically, no one with IQ over 90 is voting for Trump but it doesn't necessarily mean all of those folks are voting for Harris. I can tolerate those that vote for Harris and those that vote for neither Harris or Trump. Losing my patience with the rest of the crowd that can't see a truth as simple as 2 + 2 = 4.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think Trump is going to win:

- too much dissatisfaction on the left because of the lack of primaries / identity politics.
- the right is better at uniting behind one candidate, however distasteful.
- border issues: the cruelty of the POTUS, in itself, is viewed as a deterrent to migration, at least to some extent.
- the electoral system favors conservatives.

LOL, this is absolutely not a thing

This is why Harris is going to lose. Democrats exist in a bubble. Everyone can see the chaos of Democratic governance and people don’t like it. They don’t like the chaotic borders or prices under Biden. They don’t like what they’ve seen at colleges and universities. And they certainly don’t want what they see in SF and LA going national.

Democrats have become far, far too indulgent. Destroying the hard won Democratic brand of competent government at the feat of ideologically driven politics.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can Harris voters please get a grip? Also, don't count your chickens, MAGA. Seeing a lot of GOP who are not toeing the party line on this one.

I think this analysis is mistaken. I don't think that the issues that resonate in NC/GA are the same ones that resonate in WI/MI/PA or NV/AZ. It is entirely possible for NC/GA to go one way and NV/AZ to go the other, although I think that it is more likely than not that these groups of states will trend in the same direction (NC/GA will either go bluer than before or redder than before, for instance).

I agree with your general point and I personally don't think anyone will get over 300 electoral votes.

However statistically speaking the analysis is correct because there are 7 states where polls show the race as within the margin of error. Statistically if all or most of those states tip the same way one of the candidates could have an electoral "landslide" if not a popular vote landslide (in fact if it's Trump he would still likely lose the popular vote even if he managed to get a huge electoral win).

When this many states are on a knifes edge then there is always a reasonable likelihood that they will largely tip the same way even if the reasons for them to tip may be different from state to state. This is not political analysis but statistical prediction based on nothing more than running likelihood models. It's not someone sitting around and guessing which way all these states are going to go. It's just math.

[Anonymous]

She is going to lose all three rust belt states.

Teamsters poll their members. It went from Biden +8 before the debate to Trump +26.

This is somewhat expected: Biden was from Scranton, was generally seen as a moderate, and his Delaware ad buys spilled into PA for decades.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can Harris voters please get a grip? Also, don't count your chickens, MAGA. Seeing a lot of GOP who are not toeing the party line on this one.

I think this analysis is mistaken. I don't think that the issues that resonate in NC/GA are the same ones that resonate in WI/MI/PA or NV/AZ. It is entirely possible for NC/GA to go one way and NV/AZ to go the other, although I think that it is more likely than not that these groups of states will trend in the same direction (NC/GA will either go bluer than before or redder than before, for instance).

I agree with your general point and I personally don't think anyone will get over 300 electoral votes.

However statistically speaking the analysis is correct because there are 7 states where polls show the race as within the margin of error. Statistically if all or most of those states tip the same way one of the candidates could have an electoral "landslide" if not a popular vote landslide (in fact if it's Trump he would still likely lose the popular vote even if he managed to get a huge electoral win).

When this many states are on a knifes edge then there is always a reasonable likelihood that they will largely tip the same way even if the reasons for them to tip may be different from state to state. This is not political analysis but statistical prediction based on nothing more than running likelihood models. It's not someone sitting around and guessing which way all these states are going to go. It's just math.

Will be interesting to see which is the issue or incident which tips the balance.

I do not think it is abortion now; it was a few months back, that is all anyone could talk about.
The Haiti cats and dogs did change the conversation imo. People started taking a harder look at immigration.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:She is going to lose all three rust belt states.

Teamsters poll their members. It went from Biden +8 before the debate to Trump +26.

This is somewhat expected: Biden was from Scranton, was generally seen as a moderate, and his Delaware ad buys spilled into PA for decades.

Where is it for Harris and Trump now?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I told my friend in Sept I thought Kamala would win by a landslide because of Roe v Wade.

Now moving into Nov, I think it'll be very close.

I think Kamala would've won if she stuck to hyping how great Kamala is v. how awful Trump is. Once she reverted back to the Dem playbook of fear, she slid.

She is a better candidate than Trump in many ways but I'm not sure if she deserves to win if she loses. This election was 100% hers to win or lose - she's running v a convicted felon. If she can't win, she deserves to lose.

Yeah - drive home the stuff that rallies Dems incl pro-choice platform. Dems have way too many messages out there:
1. Trump is too scary to have in office
2. Trump is too scary to have in office
3. Trump is too scary to have in office
4. All sorts of I don't even know what they are talking about plans for economy
5. All sorts of I don't even know what they are talking about plans for immigration issues
6. All sorts of I don't even know what they are talking about plans for foreign policy

Why can't they just say to women really loudly and clearly and focused on this one topic for 3 days: Hey - the conservatives want to take away your rights of making decisions over your own body!

Why can't they focus instead of talk about so many things and most of all, about Trump?!!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:She's in trouble even putting RCP swing state Trump lead and early voting aside.

Gallup party ID has been right on top of popular vote the last 4 General Elections.

'08 GPID: D+8 / Obama won +7.2 pop vote
'12 GPID: D+4 / Obama won +3.9 pop vote
'16 GPID: D+3 / Clinton loss +2.1 pop vote
'20 GPID: D+5 / Biden win +4.5 pop vote
'24 GPID: R+3 /

Kamal needs to win pop vote by 2 or 3 to win.

No

Looking at national polling OR voter registration OR party affiliation is all meaningless in this stage of the election anyway.

National polls largely predict Harris will win the popular vote as Dems have in the last four elections and in 7 of the last 8 elections. Dems run up vote totals in cities and stronghold states like NY and CA and the GOP's more rural base can't keep up.

It will come down to outcomes in a small number of states where polls are a statistical dead heat. In some of these the GOP may have a registration advantage. In others they don't. And the swingy nature of these states makes the registration advantage less predictive -- enough R-registered voters in places like the Philly suburbs voted for Biden in 2020 that any advantage was overcome. That could easily happen this year. Or not! We won't know until they count the votes.

But looking at national polls or national registration or affiliation counts is a very stupid way to try and predict the outcome of the election at this point. This is no longer a national race because the outcome of the electoral votes in most states is already decided.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:She is going to lose all three rust belt states.

Teamsters poll their members. It went from Biden +8 before the debate to Trump +26.

This is somewhat expected: Biden was from Scranton, was generally seen as a moderate, and his Delaware ad buys spilled into PA for decades.

Where is it for Harris and Trump now?

As of Sept. 15 it was +27 Trump.

(unfortunately -- I'm a Harris supporter)

https://teamster.org/2024/09/teamsters-release-presidential-endorsement-polling-data/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:She is going to lose all three rust belt states.

Teamsters poll their members. It went from Biden +8 before the debate to Trump +26.

This is somewhat expected: Biden was from Scranton, was generally seen as a moderate, and his Delaware ad buys spilled into PA for decades.

Where is it for Harris and Trump now?

As of Sept. 15 it was +27 Trump.

(unfortunately -- I'm a Harris supporter)

https://teamster.org/2024/09/teamsters-release-presidential-endorsement-polling-data/

Thank you

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I told my friend in Sept I thought Kamala would win by a landslide because of Roe v Wade.

Now moving into Nov, I think it'll be very close.

I think Kamala would've won if she stuck to hyping how great Kamala is v. how awful Trump is. Once she reverted back to the Dem playbook of fear, she slid.

She is a better candidate than Trump in many ways but I'm not sure if she deserves to win if she loses. This election was 100% hers to win or lose - she's running v a convicted felon. If she can't win, she deserves to lose.

Yeah - drive home the stuff that rallies Dems incl pro-choice platform. Dems have way too many messages out there:
1. Trump is too scary to have in office
2. Trump is too scary to have in office
3. Trump is too scary to have in office
4. All sorts of I don't even know what they are talking about plans for economy
5. All sorts of I don't even know what they are talking about plans for immigration issues
6. All sorts of I don't even know what they are talking about plans for foreign policy

Why can't they just say to women really loudly and clearly and focused on this one topic for 3 days: Hey - the conservatives want to take away your rights of making decisions over your own body!

Why can't they focus instead of talk about so many things and most of all, about Trump?!!

This is happening where I live: all ad money is on abortion. I've never seen a Harris or Trump commercial.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can Harris voters please get a grip? Also, don't count your chickens, MAGA. Seeing a lot of GOP who are not toeing the party line on this one.

I think this analysis is mistaken. I don't think that the issues that resonate in NC/GA are the same ones that resonate in WI/MI/PA or NV/AZ. It is entirely possible for NC/GA to go one way and NV/AZ to go the other, although I think that it is more likely than not that these groups of states will trend in the same direction (NC/GA will either go bluer than before or redder than before, for instance).

I agree with your general point and I personally don't think anyone will get over 300 electoral votes.

However statistically speaking the analysis is correct because there are 7 states where polls show the race as within the margin of error. Statistically if all or most of those states tip the same way one of the candidates could have an electoral "landslide" if not a popular vote landslide (in fact if it's Trump he would still likely lose the popular vote even if he managed to get a huge electoral win).

When this many states are on a knifes edge then there is always a reasonable likelihood that they will largely tip the same way even if the reasons for them to tip may be different from state to state. This is not political analysis but statistical prediction based on nothing more than running likelihood models. It's not someone sitting around and guessing which way all these states are going to go. It's just math.

Will be interesting to see which is the issue or incident which tips the balance.

I do not think it is abortion now; it was a few months back, that is all anyone could talk about.
The Haiti cats and dogs did change the conversation imo. People started taking a harder look at immigration.

Everyone knows that the little ladies are easily bored and distracted. Yet another reason it’s better for stronger, smarter men, making the choices for everyone’s healthcare. The right kind of men know best. Even conservative women understand this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:She is going to lose all three rust belt states.

Teamsters poll their members. It went from Biden +8 before the debate to Trump +26.

This is somewhat expected: Biden was from Scranton, was generally seen as a moderate, and his Delaware ad buys spilled into PA for decades.

Has anyone told them Biden isn’t running anymore?
Someone should get on that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump will win. Because the country is filled with selfish people who don’t understand history, and who have forgotten about the common hood.

Trump would have lost in a landslide if the Biden administration hadn’t been captured by progressives.

Yup. Trump is going to win and it’s because Biden was too far gone to control his extreme progressive staffers, with the exception of Blinken, who went far on supporting Israel.

This is a good take. Ron Klain was probably Biden’s biggest mistake and he staffed the WH and administration when left wing ideologues.

Biden also made problems for himself by overlying promoting his loyal lieutenants, like Blinken. Blinken is not responsible for Israel. Blinken is a lightweight. Jake Sullivan is the one responsible for Israel policy. It’s always the so-called smart guys who believe their own hype that end up screwing up the worst.

That’s a reasonable take. In essence, the current Biden administration is staffed either with far left-wing ideologues or very pro-Israel foreign policy staff. Biden himself is too incapacitated to rein them in. That resulted in a president who campaigned as a moderate but who in practice went far left (except for Israel).

I’m not even opposed to keeping close ties with Israel — I don’t see viable alternatives in the Middle East for the US — but that doesn’t have to mean a blank check.