Forum Index
»
Political Discussion
Who do you think is going to win and why?
![[Post New]](/jforum/templates/default/images/icon_minipost_new.gif){kind=icon}
Anonymous
Aren’t you MAGAs all about telling it like it is? Why the sudden pearl-clutching? |
Anonymous
I would personally never have an elective abortion (raised Catholic and I just don't think I could do it) and I am pro-choice and pro-Roe because I think the government getting involved in that decision is dangerous and bleeds into other healthcare and reproductive rights issues. I think the decision of whether to terminate a pregnancy should be between a woman and her doctor and that states should not get involved. Even trying to carve out exceptions for rape or incest or the life of the mother is super thorny -- now you have to *prove* rape or incest or that a mother's life is in danger in order to get what might be needed medical care? No that is stupid. I think too about very young women and girls who get pregnant and how having those babies could be terrible for both the mother and the baby. I also think about women I've known in abusive relationships. I myself am a rape survivor. The idea of a state getting to decide what happens to women's bodies in these situations is really ridiculous to me. I also think that once you open the door to states legislating about abortion there are people who will start trying to include contraception as well. The morning after pill was so political and it took forever to get it made readily available to women who needed it. I don't want to roll that back. I've had to take the morning after pill (including after being raped) and I view it as my right. The people who want to restrict or eliminate abortion tend to also view something like Plan B as something they should have a say on. And then from there we're not very far from making other forms of birth control (especially any that need to be prescribed by a doctor) illegal. No thank you. I might not choose an abortion if it's not necessary but I still want the RIGHT to choose. |
Anonymous
This is straight up 🥜 |
Anonymous
|
Most people are not that bright, sorry.
Most people are easily entertained and swayed/manipulated. Intellectualism and principles is less appealing than straightforward practical common sense. Say it straightforward with 3 words v 10 words. Say what you mean. Talk about 2 ideas v 10 ideas. Focus on current issues, not historical ones. Nobody cares about the national debt if they can't afford groceries. Nobody cares about climate change if they don't have a job. This is not always good or right but it's reality. What Trump has that makes him so tough is that he gets this in spades. Whether you like him or not, he appeals because he markets to you in a way that you can understand. WTF is Harris about? Who cares about her economic plan with 100 parts. Nobody wants to think that much - just sell the parts that matter. She can't and doesn't do that. That's a real problem for Kamala that has nothing to do with Trump. |
Anonymous
To suggest that Trump is “likable” is just bonkers. I guess he is as likable as any sex offender. Trump is as likable as any convicted felon. I guess Trump is as likable as any bigot. Our country hates ambitious women. Name a female politician who ran for POTUS who is likable by the men of this country? |
Anonymous
|
I think this analysis is mistaken. I don't think that the issues that resonate in NC/GA are the same ones that resonate in WI/MI/PA or NV/AZ. It is entirely possible for NC/GA to go one way and NV/AZ to go the other, although I think that it is more likely than not that these groups of states will trend in the same direction (NC/GA will either go bluer than before or redder than before, for instance). |
Anonymous
|
I think Trump is going to win:
- too much dissatisfaction on the left because of the lack of primaries / identity politics. - the right is better at uniting behind one candidate, however distasteful. - border issues: the cruelty of the POTUS, in itself, is viewed as a deterrent to migration, at least to some extent. - the electoral system favors conservatives. |
Anonymous
There is definitely one much bigger issue. 10s of millions of misguided people are considering voting for a guy who had the job previously and while on the job cowered in a corner of The White House and refused to carry out the most basic and important duty of a POTUS during the one and only time he had a chance to step up in a big moment. A POTUS has to have courage to act immediately when the sovereignty of our country is under attack or else they are completely useless and they need to be tossed aside permanently. POTUS is simply too powerful and important of a job for one without courage to take on. |
Anonymous
|
She's in trouble even putting RCP swing state Trump lead and early voting aside.
Gallup party ID has been right on top of popular vote the last 4 General Elections. '08 GPID: D+8 / Obama won +7.2 pop vote '12 GPID: D+4 / Obama won +3.9 pop vote '16 GPID: D+3 / Clinton loss +2.1 pop vote '20 GPID: D+5 / Biden win +4.5 pop vote '24 GPID: R+3 / Kamal needs to win pop vote by 2 or 3 to win. |
Anonymous
I think this analysis is nuts Yes, the right is better at uniting behind one candidate - one extremely polarizing candidate who people not on the right by and large hate. What dissatisfaction on this mythical left? You mean the progressives who were out protesting "genocide Joe" and are threatening to vote for Jill Stein, the way they always do? The border does seem to favor Trump but I think at least as many people care about abortion. |
Anonymous
LOL, this is absolutely not a thing |
Anonymous
His former staff, house members, military, VP, former president do not tolerate him and endorsed Harris. |
Anonymous
You clearly do not understand the term "likable." Likable has NOTHING - say it with me - NOTHING - to do with what someone does or doesn't do, believes in, etc. It has to do with, for lack of a better term, energy. Some people are likeable. Some people aren't. It's not really definable. Trump has that likeability thing. What people don't like is what he does but that's a different thing altogether. He's funny as hell and he's very open. I hate him and am still entertained by him. I hate what he's done and continues to do. I think he's a MOFO and can't believe he's dumb enough to say the things he does. However, he is himself. That's a VERY VERY VERY likeable quality for most people. He is very straightforward - he's a genuine ass_ but genuine is the key word there. As for gender - I am a DEI female. I would LOVE LOVE LOVE more than anything to have a woman be respected as the leader of the free world. I'm proud of all women who are effective leaders. However, I'm not going to vote and suggest women deserve that role if they don't. I like smart people - I like competency in general. I like people I like whether man or woman but I don't like someone just because of their gender. That's not how likeability works. You overthink. That's the problem with a lot of people who don't get why Trump is so popular. Keep it simple. His wrongs are pretty bad but when the press keeps pounding at it and doesn't let it go, it only makes him more popular because it's the press that's disliked for being so annoyingly repetitive. When Kamala keeps harping on how terrible he is, she becomes more disliked because they like him and she's tearing that down for them. Better thing for her is get them to like her more for her not because he's so bad. Your whole platform about needing to dislike him because of all the bad things he has done doesn't alter how likeable he is. |
Anonymous
Anonymous
| Insightful take here. |