The problem with your analysis is that you assume: 1. Spirit DA is actually profitable. 2. Spirit overall is profitable. 3. The new owner even wants 2 DA's or any at all. (US Soccer will have their say but not every NWSL club has a GDA) |
Given the costs and overhead involved, Spirit DA is as likely as FCV DA to be solvent. Why don't you focus on FCV's viability for a few minutes? |
Because I don't necessarily believe any FCV involvement. I don't believe FCV wants what they already have. They would be just as happy if Spirit DA did not exist at all and the player pool was more concentrated. If there is any FCV involvement it will likely be FCV paying for some licensing agreement to put on a Spirit patch or whatever on their jersey while still keeping their own brand while offering a "pro club connection" to their players. I believe Spirit would rather sell access to the brand than do any of the actual work of running the DA. So if any relationship were to happen it would be a rather shallow arrangement and would have very little Spirit oversight. I do not believe that there will be an independent, Spirit run DA in VA next year. |
Why do you make the last comment? What are you basing it on? |
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^^ Because Larry’s reply is an odd way to answer a current or future customer if the VA DA is such a slam dunk cash cow as people here would have us believe.
Good news is easy to give. If the DA is a slam dunk money maker then there is no reason to be coy. If there are plans to improve the DA then that can be talked up without giving anything away. Nothing says “come to Washington Spirit DA!” more than “for the spring DA will be business as usual. |
Oh, so you’re basing it on a few words in an email. We’ll see what happens. |
My opinion is at least based on the CEO’s words. What is your opinion based on? |
Also the CEO's words (the ones you chose to ignore), as well as the success of the program, the implications of dropping hundreds of players and families/tickets, and the reputational hit. |
He comitted to the spring. I am inferring as much from what WAS said as I am from was was NOT said. |
It’s clear that Larry wants to review operations before finalizing a decision to continue as is. You seem to have an awful lot invested in spreading the rumor that the decision has been made with no actual information to support it. And this rumor has been spread even before Baldwin. Seems the rumor shifts to the facts instead of being based on any
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That a decision is even being made demonstrates that there is in fact reason to be concerned. There is a big difference in saying something like “we are evaluating pricing, coaching, partners and other ways to improve our DA’s” Instead he said, “for the spring DA is business as usual.” The tone of the email was not optimistic and did not instill confidence that the DA is a priority and will unquestionably continue next year. |
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It sounds like folks think there is tremendous value in VA DA families attending NWSL matches. I suspect that doesn't amount to nearly as much revenue or value as you think it does. And as long as they are renting fields it is unlikely that the DA operation generates much profit, especially considering the number of coaching resources they devote to it.
NWSL Academies are meant to form pipelines of talent and to expand your brand exposure. With the geography and competition present in the NoVA area for Elite players, I think the process will be decades long there. That is, unless they form a strategic partnership with another club like FCV. Barring that, I suspect there is minimal loss involved in dropping VA DA.It could well be that the bang for the buck just isn't there on the VA side. From FCV's perspective, I don't see the value in any sort of partnership with WS. They don't need the incremental talent, they can't afford all those coaches, WS brings no significant field access with them, it means a loss of control, and the pipeline to the pro's is there whether there is a partnership or not. Most girls are focused on college and not NWSL anyway. |
Again, so what? It’s clear they are looking at it as stated. There’s no evidence to support your confident statement. You’re just hoping. Sick stuff, but not surprising in this swamp of an area. |
Actually true revenue of just the DA piece is easily calculated. Roughly 100 players at $5k a pop is half a million dollars of guaranteed revenue year over year. One million when you include the MD side. That doesn’t include family and friend ticket sales, merchandise, concessions, and everything else that goes away when those families do. Good luck finding loyal Spirit fans after they are left out in the cold, if it were to come to that. |
While the revenue is important, the profit may not be there. That's really what I am focusing on. I don't think the family and friend ticket sales from the Virginia side amounts to much in the grand scheme of what it takes to break even. The attendance problem of NWSL goes way beyond any loss of revenue by shutting down a hundred families. If you're running an academy to sell tickets, that's not a very viable thing. |