Anyone else think schools will be virtual after Winter Break?

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:If posters on this thread who actually have school children want to minimize the virtual time in January, then practice maximum Covid precautions over the break. Avoid travel, wear your masks, skip the holiday gatherings, and don’t let your teens go to gatherings. Encourage your friends to do the same. I know it’s hard, but that’s what we have to do. Sometimes it’s hard to be the responsible adult, but it’s our job. Good luck.

I agree with you. Sadly however….

Making personal sacrifices in the name of public health and community-mindedness is not something we’ve collectively proven ourselves capable of doing.

This is ridiculous. Children around the country lost a over a year of education, many of whom will literally never recover. The harm from DL is documented, widespread, and hurts the most vulnerable children disproportionately. At the same time, women left the workforce in numbers not seen in modern times, and for many of them, they will take a lifelong hit to earnings and will not regain their careers.

People like you who whine on and on about how people don’t know how or can’t make personal sacrifices sound entitled, arrogant, and out of touch. Many, many people (disproportionately vulnerable children, service workers, and poorer women) showed they can make enormous sacrifices for society. But that’s not good enough for you. You aren’t getting exactly what you want, so you are throwing a tantrum and pretending nobody sacrificed enormously.

DP. Calm down. I suspect you are on the same side. Many people (including on this board) refuse to make “easy” sacrifices in terms of wearing masks (eg thread of posters looking for mask optional schools) or people threatening picket lines and moving to Florida if they have virtual school for even two weeks in January leading to the much starker sacrifices you speak of. We should ALL be willing to make the short term sacrifices so that we can avoid putting any of us in the position of having to make the long term ones.

No, we aren’t on the same side. I don’t believe in asking people to engage in performative virus theater that is not likely to have measurable public health benefit while at the same time lecturing others on how they aren’t willing to sacrifice. It is absurd to believe, this far into the pandemic, that closing schools for two weeks will have any real benefit that would prevent the enormous harms many people have already suffered.

Uh, future policies can't remedy past harms because of those two pesky words, PAST and FUTURE. Maybe that's why your crowd really doesn't grasp public policy and has to infantilize the concepts down to theatrical level to talk about it.

Sadly, lots of studies now show that no amount of information or emphasis on compassion is going to make any difference. You will be the ocean that this virus keeps swimming around in and mutating in so that it never really goes away.

That will change your kids' lives for good, not one episode when they were 16 or under. Well done.

So, here we have someone both clearly science-ignorant and overtly nasty who is lecturing others on incorrect science and compassion she clearly has no understanding of. The lack of self-awareness is striking.

Be better, PP. And learn a little basic epidemiology while you are at it.

Actual epidemiologist here; and also a new poster. Masks (of appropriate standards and worn correctly) ARE EFFECTIVE, just as rigorous testing and subsequent temporary closures where outbreaks are present, are appropriate. I am not sure what you attempt to get at above, but actual science backs all of that up.

Of course masks work. So does testing. I never said anything about those, that was all imagined commentary from the fever dreams of the nasty poster above. Short term school shut downs have not been proven to stop community covid spread, so that is an open debate.

That PP believes (as per her exact words, not the imaginary words she came up with) that a two week shut down will stop covid spread such that people don't have to make long term sacrifices. That is outright delusional and why she needs to learn basic epidemiology.

You are missing the point and sound like you are really a joy to boot.

Short term sacrifices for greater good have been an issue since day 1 of the pandemic. Our collective inability to make them led to all of the more serious issues you describe. Does a school going virtual in January for 10 days result in a woman leaving the workforce? I would doubt it. But it might prevent added omicron spread. That’s the point.

"Might?" That where you are? My God. I can't even. Covid theater indeed.

Epidemiologist back again. You are reading far too much into one word. Read this article.
https://www.science.org/content/article/does-closing-schools-slow-spread-novel-coronavirus

I’m pretty sure the PP will eventually tell you too to learn some basic epidemiology. You know, like she has.

The epidemiologist needs to learn the difference between a study and a random interview.

I think her source was “dumbed down” for you sweetie.

Fine. Post the good studies that demonstrate that short term school closures have a significant impact on reducing community covid spread. You are advocating for them so strongly that you must have evidence.

I have advanced STEM degrees and am fine reading and analyzing studies. I don’t need a useless speculative interview. We have two years of school closures. There should be many studies showing that short term school closures reduce community spread in a measurable way.

What studies out there conclusively demonstrate that closing schools for two weeks in January will have beneficial impact?

NP but I am not in favor of closing schools for two weeks, however I am in favor if schools testing everyone prior to coming back in person .

[Anonymous]

Fine. Post the good studies that demonstrate that short term school closures have a significant impact on reducing community covid spread. You are advocating for them so strongly that you must have evidence.

I have advanced STEM degrees and am fine reading and analyzing studies. I don’t need a useless speculative interview. We have two years of school closures. There should be many studies showing that short term school closures reduce community spread in a measurable way.

What studies out there conclusively demonstrate that closing schools for two weeks in January will have beneficial impact?

NP.

1. Notice how Mr. "advanced STEM degrees" is already moving the goalposts to make it impossible to satisfy his request for studies? They need to be academic studies, not just summaries from WHO or CDC or other experts. And the need to be "good" studies, which apparently is an advanced STEM term meaning ones that PP likes. And then they need to "conclusively" show what will happen if we close schools "for two weeks in January." I suspect they also need to be based on data from the Washington DC area, and have been published in the six weeks since Omicron first appeared. All this seems designed to allow him to dismiss the evidence that disagrees with his prior conclusions.

2. The interview another poster provided has several links to academic papers addressing the topic. Below are links to others. I'm sure PP will find them unsatisfactory though, because they don't support his predetermined conclusion.

Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic
"School closure during the peak of a pandemic can reduce peak attack rates by up to 40% .... Given enough drugs for 50% of the population, household-based prophylaxis coupled with reactive school closure could reduce clinical attack rates by 40–50%."
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature04795

Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Implemented by US Cities During the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic
"School closure and public gathering bans activated concurrently represented the most common combination implemented in 34 cities (79%); this combination had a median duration of 4 weeks (range, 1-10 weeks) and was significantly associated with reductions in weekly EDR."
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/208354

The impact of regular school closure on seasonal influenza epidemics: a data-driven spatial transmission model for Belgium
"An extension of the Christmas holiday of 1 week may further mitigate the epidemic. Changes in the way individuals establish contacts during holidays are the key ingredient explaining the mitigating effect of regular school closure."
https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12879-017-2934-3

Association Between Statewide School Closure and COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality in the US
"In this US population–based time series analysis conducted between March 9, 2020, and May 7, 2020, school closure was associated with a significant decline in both incidence of COVID-19 (adjusted relative change per week, −62%) and mortality (adjusted relative change per week, −58%)."
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2769034

Timing of Community Mitigation and Changes in Reported COVID-19 and Community Mobility ― Four U.S. Metropolitan Areas, February 26–April 1, 2020
"Public policies to increase compliance with social distancing, including limits on mass gatherings, school closures, business restrictions, and stay-at-home or shelter-in-place orders appear to be associated with decreases in mobility. Policies related to specific locations or community organizations (e.g., mass gatherings, schools, restaurants, and bars) were often implemented within one or two weeks of mid-March, likely a result of increased awareness and concern about the potential scope of the outbreak in the absence of mitigation. This awareness and concern also likely impacted the public, potentially leading to further decreases in mobility."
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7755061/

Scientific and ethical basis for social-distancing interventions against COVID-19
The combined intervention, in which quarantine, school closure, and workplace distancing were implemented, was the most effective: compared with the baseline scenario of no interventions, the combined intervention reduced the estimated median number of infections by 99·3% (IQR 92·6–99·9) when R0 was 1·5, by 93·0% (81·5–99·7) when R0 was 2·0, and by 78·2% (59·0–94·4) when R0 was 2·5.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30190-0/fulltext

Simulating the effect of school closure during COVID-19 outbreaks in Ontario, Canada
Our study demonstrates that while SC (school closure) will mitigate disease transmission during the COVID-19 pandemic when combined by other social distancing measures, it may have markedly lower effectiveness in reducing attack rates and hospitalizations compared to SI (social isolation). [Ed: In other words, close schools and also keep your kids at home!]
https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-020-01705-8

Substantial Impact of School Closure on the Transmission Dynamics during the Pandemic Flu H1N1-2009 in Oita, Japan
"School closure is considered as an effective measure to prevent pandemic influenza. ... School closure was an effective intervention for mitigating the spread of influenza and should be implemented for more than 4 days. School closure has a remarkable impact on decreasing the number of infected students at the peak, but it does not substantially decrease the total number of infected students [because of a lack of social isolation during school closure]."
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0144839

The impact of unplanned school closure on children’s social contact: rapid evidence review
"During a major infectious disease outbreak, school closure has the potential to slow the spread of infection. However, the effects of a closure will be attenuated if children continue to mix."
https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.13.2000188;jsessionid=MD6pjqtq_JZDJAf4Z3ZG6kXw.i-0b3d9850f4681504f-ecdclive

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If posters on this thread who actually have school children want to minimize the virtual time in January, then practice maximum Covid precautions over the break. Avoid travel, wear your masks, skip the holiday gatherings, and don’t let your teens go to gatherings. Encourage your friends to do the same. I know it’s hard, but that’s what we have to do. Sometimes it’s hard to be the responsible adult, but it’s our job. Good luck.

I agree with you. Sadly however….

Making personal sacrifices in the name of public health and community-mindedness is not something we’ve collectively proven ourselves capable of doing.

This is ridiculous. Children around the country lost a over a year of education, many of whom will literally never recover. The harm from DL is documented, widespread, and hurts the most vulnerable children disproportionately. At the same time, women left the workforce in numbers not seen in modern times, and for many of them, they will take a lifelong hit to earnings and will not regain their careers.

People like you who whine on and on about how people don’t know how or can’t make personal sacrifices sound entitled, arrogant, and out of touch. Many, many people (disproportionately vulnerable children, service workers, and poorer women) showed they can make enormous sacrifices for society. But that’s not good enough for you. You aren’t getting exactly what you want, so you are throwing a tantrum and pretending nobody sacrificed enormously.

DP. Calm down. I suspect you are on the same side. Many people (including on this board) refuse to make “easy” sacrifices in terms of wearing masks (eg thread of posters looking for mask optional schools) or people threatening picket lines and moving to Florida if they have virtual school for even two weeks in January leading to the much starker sacrifices you speak of. We should ALL be willing to make the short term sacrifices so that we can avoid putting any of us in the position of having to make the long term ones.

No, we aren’t on the same side. I don’t believe in asking people to engage in performative virus theater that is not likely to have measurable public health benefit while at the same time lecturing others on how they aren’t willing to sacrifice. It is absurd to believe, this far into the pandemic, that closing schools for two weeks will have any real benefit that would prevent the enormous harms many people have already suffered.

Uh, future policies can't remedy past harms because of those two pesky words, PAST and FUTURE. Maybe that's why your crowd really doesn't grasp public policy and has to infantilize the concepts down to theatrical level to talk about it.

Sadly, lots of studies now show that no amount of information or emphasis on compassion is going to make any difference. You will be the ocean that this virus keeps swimming around in and mutating in so that it never really goes away.

That will change your kids' lives for good, not one episode when they were 16 or under. Well done.

So, here we have someone both clearly science-ignorant and overtly nasty who is lecturing others on incorrect science and compassion she clearly has no understanding of. The lack of self-awareness is striking.

Be better, PP. And learn a little basic epidemiology while you are at it.

Actual epidemiologist here; and also a new poster. Masks (of appropriate standards and worn correctly) ARE EFFECTIVE, just as rigorous testing and subsequent temporary closures where outbreaks are present, are appropriate. I am not sure what you attempt to get at above, but actual science backs all of that up.

Of course masks work. So does testing. I never said anything about those, that was all imagined commentary from the fever dreams of the nasty poster above. Short term school shut downs have not been proven to stop community covid spread, so that is an open debate.

That PP believes (as per her exact words, not the imaginary words she came up with) that a two week shut down will stop covid spread such that people don't have to make long term sacrifices. That is outright delusional and why she needs to learn basic epidemiology.

You are missing the point and sound like you are really a joy to boot.

Short term sacrifices for greater good have been an issue since day 1 of the pandemic. Our collective inability to make them led to all of the more serious issues you describe. Does a school going virtual in January for 10 days result in a woman leaving the workforce? I would doubt it. But it might prevent added omicron spread. That’s the point.

"Might?" That where you are? My God. I can't even. Covid theater indeed.

Epidemiologist back again. You are reading far too much into one word. Read this article.
https://www.science.org/content/article/does-closing-schools-slow-spread-novel-coronavirus

I’m pretty sure the PP will eventually tell you too to learn some basic epidemiology. You know, like she has.

The epidemiologist needs to learn the difference between a study and a random interview.

I think her source was “dumbed down” for you sweetie.

But no one is able to make the short-term sacrifice. Close the schools for two weeks and all your buddies will head to well-known international travel destinations. And spread whatever they have and catch whatever is out there. You can cite any study you want but when the population of your school is so used to having and doing what they want when they want, it won’t work.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Fine. Post the good studies that demonstrate that short term school closures have a significant impact on reducing community covid spread. You are advocating for them so strongly that you must have evidence.

I have advanced STEM degrees and am fine reading and analyzing studies. I don’t need a useless speculative interview. We have two years of school closures. There should be many studies showing that short term school closures reduce community spread in a measurable way.

What studies out there conclusively demonstrate that closing schools for two weeks in January will have beneficial impact?

NP.

1. Notice how Mr. "advanced STEM degrees" is already moving the goalposts to make it impossible to satisfy his request for studies? They need to be academic studies, not just summaries from WHO or CDC or other experts. And the need to be "good" studies, which apparently is an advanced STEM term meaning ones that PP likes. And then they need to "conclusively" show what will happen if we close schools "for two weeks in January." I suspect they also need to be based on data from the Washington DC area, and have been published in the six weeks since Omicron first appeared. All this seems designed to allow him to dismiss the evidence that disagrees with his prior conclusions.

2. The interview another poster provided has several links to academic papers addressing the topic. Below are links to others. I'm sure PP will find them unsatisfactory though, because they don't support his predetermined conclusion.

Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic
"School closure during the peak of a pandemic can reduce peak attack rates by up to 40% .... Given enough drugs for 50% of the population, household-based prophylaxis coupled with reactive school closure could reduce clinical attack rates by 40–50%."
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature04795

Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Implemented by US Cities During the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic
"School closure and public gathering bans activated concurrently represented the most common combination implemented in 34 cities (79%); this combination had a median duration of 4 weeks (range, 1-10 weeks) and was significantly associated with reductions in weekly EDR."
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/208354

The impact of regular school closure on seasonal influenza epidemics: a data-driven spatial transmission model for Belgium
"An extension of the Christmas holiday of 1 week may further mitigate the epidemic. Changes in the way individuals establish contacts during holidays are the key ingredient explaining the mitigating effect of regular school closure."
https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12879-017-2934-3

Association Between Statewide School Closure and COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality in the US
"In this US population–based time series analysis conducted between March 9, 2020, and May 7, 2020, school closure was associated with a significant decline in both incidence of COVID-19 (adjusted relative change per week, −62%) and mortality (adjusted relative change per week, −58%)."
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2769034

Timing of Community Mitigation and Changes in Reported COVID-19 and Community Mobility ― Four U.S. Metropolitan Areas, February 26–April 1, 2020
"Public policies to increase compliance with social distancing, including limits on mass gatherings, school closures, business restrictions, and stay-at-home or shelter-in-place orders appear to be associated with decreases in mobility. Policies related to specific locations or community organizations (e.g., mass gatherings, schools, restaurants, and bars) were often implemented within one or two weeks of mid-March, likely a result of increased awareness and concern about the potential scope of the outbreak in the absence of mitigation. This awareness and concern also likely impacted the public, potentially leading to further decreases in mobility."
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7755061/

Scientific and ethical basis for social-distancing interventions against COVID-19
The combined intervention, in which quarantine, school closure, and workplace distancing were implemented, was the most effective: compared with the baseline scenario of no interventions, the combined intervention reduced the estimated median number of infections by 99·3% (IQR 92·6–99·9) when R0 was 1·5, by 93·0% (81·5–99·7) when R0 was 2·0, and by 78·2% (59·0–94·4) when R0 was 2·5.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30190-0/fulltext

Simulating the effect of school closure during COVID-19 outbreaks in Ontario, Canada
Our study demonstrates that while SC (school closure) will mitigate disease transmission during the COVID-19 pandemic when combined by other social distancing measures, it may have markedly lower effectiveness in reducing attack rates and hospitalizations compared to SI (social isolation). [Ed: In other words, close schools and also keep your kids at home!]
https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-020-01705-8

Substantial Impact of School Closure on the Transmission Dynamics during the Pandemic Flu H1N1-2009 in Oita, Japan
"School closure is considered as an effective measure to prevent pandemic influenza. ... School closure was an effective intervention for mitigating the spread of influenza and should be implemented for more than 4 days. School closure has a remarkable impact on decreasing the number of infected students at the peak, but it does not substantially decrease the total number of infected students [because of a lack of social isolation during school closure]."
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0144839

The impact of unplanned school closure on children’s social contact: rapid evidence review
"During a major infectious disease outbreak, school closure has the potential to slow the spread of infection. However, the effects of a closure will be attenuated if children continue to mix."
https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.13.2000188;jsessionid=MD6pjqtq_JZDJAf4Z3ZG6kXw.i-0b3d9850f4681504f-ecdclive

Will you also advocate for a hard lockdown of all travel, restaurants, bars, cafes, gyms, salons, etcetcetc.

Or just schools?

[Anonymous]

Yes of course they will be. If apple stores are closing you can bet schools will too.

[Anonymous]

My gym is open.

[Anonymous]

Uh anyone watching the slow mental breakdown of kids due to virtual learning? Don’t let people eat or drink or workout inside before schools close. That would actually put the kids first.

[Anonymous]

It doesn't need to be 2 plus weeks or nothing. Private schools should close for 1-2 days next week to test everyone before return. This will not avoid all cases, because it's in the environment, but it will help reducing bringing in some positives right at the start.

[Anonymous]

Will you also advocate for a hard lockdown of all travel, restaurants, bars, cafes, gyms, salons, etcetcetc. Or just schools?

PP with the academic links responding: Yes, yes, yes. I think all those should be imposed. I’ve posted that same view here many times over the past 18 months. Unfortunately, it’s really hard for any local government (or federal govt) to impose domestic travel limits. Local governments have imposed shutdowns of places like bars, restaurants, gyms, etc, with lots of success. But as you see in some states like Texas and Florida, the Trumpers in government will try to block localities from self-government and prevent them from shutting down.

The reason we are one of the hottest hotspots for the vaccine is because people refuse to take basic precautions. I get that everyone is tired. But we need to quit allowing the selfish to ruin our community.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Will you also advocate for a hard lockdown of all travel, restaurants, bars, cafes, gyms, salons, etcetcetc. Or just schools?

PP with the academic links responding: Yes, yes, yes. I think all those should be imposed. I’ve posted that same view here many times over the past 18 months. Unfortunately, it’s really hard for any local government (or federal govt) to impose domestic travel limits. Local governments have imposed shutdowns of places like bars, restaurants, gyms, etc, with lots of success. But as you see in some states like Texas and Florida, the Trumpers in government will try to block localities from self-government and prevent them from shutting down.

The reason we are one of the hottest hotspots for the vaccine is because people refuse to take basic precautions. I get that everyone is tired. But we need to quit allowing the selfish to ruin our community.

Then you get back to me once everything else is closed and then we can talk about schools.

[Anonymous]

That’s a shitty response. Shut it all down. You have to start somewhere; schools are what’s on the table.

Ask yourselves why the US has so many more cases than everywhere else. Maybe some is more robust testing, but that only explains a small part. It’s because many are shitty at sacrificing for the common good. Make some sacrifice so we can get this under control. Five days of school is a small price to pay.

[Anonymous]

With so many colleges having delayed/virtual start, we are preparing for a delayed or virtual high school start.

[Anonymous]

I think it should be delayed until the test everyone within the school community. And then continue with weekly testing at minimum for the time being. This is possible at independent schools in dc. None are huge.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think it should be delayed until the test everyone within the school community. And then continue with weekly testing at minimum for the time being. This is possible at independent schools in dc. None are huge.

I'm the PP who posted the academic study links, and who thinks major shutdowns are warranted, and even I agree that what you describe is a reasonable middle-ground. Make Monday a test-everyone day, where students come in at predetermined times for testing. Since everyone should be back from their travels, this will catch most (not all but most) of the virus kids have picked up on travel. Tuesday is a virtual school day while we await results. On Wednesday, those kids to tested negative can come to school. Those who tested positive get to quarantine until five days after a negative test. Schools should re-impose weekly testing over the next month or so, to match the Omicron surge.

[Anonymous]

Quarantine for 5 days after a negative test? That doesn’t make sense and is not what the CDC is saying. You can return 5 days after your positive test if you are asymptotic.