Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don’t know about PA. Those Trump rallies were massive. Is there indeed a large uncounted vote there?

Trumpies like to point out

There's a number of Trumpheads who will travel 3-4 hours to watch their Leader, their Guide, speaking. If you're arguing that finding 10,000 Trumpheads within 4 hours of just about anywhere in PA is a sign of extensive Trump strength, I'm not sure what to say here.

Polls can't measure:
1) Pro-life folks who just can't bring themselves to pull the "D" lever. They might not vote for President, they might pull the lever for Trump, but they changed their mind at the last minute (likewise for pro-gun folks, although I think most regular gun owners are more reachable than the most pro-life people. Copy for other issues.)
2) Intimidation and frivolous lawsuits that somehow get the light of day (e.g. the "toss out 100k votes in Harris County TX)" lawsuit.) Ironically, if the militias show up in great force, they're likely to scare off their own team members, since I though the election day electorate was more R-leaning than the general election electorate. I suppose they could show up in Philadelphia, Milwaukee, etc., and hope there's a number of III Percent and Oath Keepers among the Philadelphia police or that intimidated grannies don't call in THEIR grandkids.
3) I suspect you've got a few remaining low/medium info, paranoid folks that are convinced that unless they vote in person on election day itself their vote just won't count. Or they tried looking at the early voting and just saw (what was to them) a wall of text, or heard about the post office shenanigans, and decided to either not vote or just vote in person on E-day. This is just conjecture.
4) New and low-turnout voters that haven't voted since 2008 that decide now is a good time to vote. I also don't know how much juice the Trump Signal has in pulling out voters that didn't vote in 2016.

Each of these can swing things maybe 0.5-1% apiece, tops, but it could swing things 2-4% either way.

As to (3):

I have a Republican wife (so weekend and after hours stuff is just out of the question) and work in a secure facility (so bringing in my laptops and cell phones isn't going to work either, and I'm not hanging around Starbucks for 2 hours to do phone banking, etc.) I went to the websites and found weekend/after hours stuff, and other stuff I couldn't do.

Only a call from a volunteer Friday PM helped me find something I *could* do during the day, which I'll do Monday.

Now extrapolate that to someone trying to figure out how voting is going to work in 2020.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don’t know about PA. Those Trump rallies were massive. Is there indeed a large uncounted vote there?

In the runup to the 1980 Jamaica General Election, the PM at the time (Michael Manley) had a big rally. He decided the turnout and enthusiasm was such that an early election would be needed. Basically he said, "150,000 strong can't be wrong."

There were strikes, lay-offs of public workers, IMF austerity, and the such.

800+ murders and one election later, he went from a 47-13 majority to a 51-9 defeat.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t know about PA. Those Trump rallies were massive. Is there indeed a large uncounted vote there?

If you read articles about the rallies, you learn that they are sort of like Grateful Dead concerts. There are people who travel around from show to show. Yes, of course locals come out because its always exciting to see a president of the US live and in person, but a few thousand people at a superspreader event is not the same as ensuring the millions of votes needed to win a state or country.

Bernie also had a lot of packed rallies. Biden won the nomination. I think you can read enthusiasm into those rallies, but not necessarily numbers.

Anyway, all we can do now is one last GOVT push, and hope.

No Bernie did not have a “lot” of “packed” rallies, at least by Trump standards. Trump had four rallies yesterday in PA alone. There were 57,000 people at ONE of them.

Bernie had nothing of the sort, ever in his wildest dreams.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t know about PA. Those Trump rallies were massive. Is there indeed a large uncounted vote there?

If you read articles about the rallies, you learn that they are sort of like Grateful Dead concerts. There are people who travel around from show to show. Yes, of course locals come out because its always exciting to see a president of the US live and in person, but a few thousand people at a superspreader event is not the same as ensuring the millions of votes needed to win a state or country.

Bernie also had a lot of packed rallies. Biden won the nomination. I think you can read enthusiasm into those rallies, but not necessarily numbers.

Anyway, all we can do now is one last GOVT push, and hope.

No Bernie did not have a “lot” of “packed” rallies, at least by Trump standards. Trump had four rallies yesterday in PA alone. There were 57,000 people at ONE of them.

Bernie had nothing of the sort, ever in his wildest dreams.

57000 people at a rally during a pandemic? Thanks for reminding me that the Republican Party is a death cult.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t know about PA. Those Trump rallies were massive. Is there indeed a large uncounted vote there?

Trumpies like to point out

There's a number of Trumpheads who will travel 3-4 hours to watch their Leader, their Guide, speaking. If you're arguing that finding 10,000 Trumpheads within 4 hours of just about anywhere in PA is a sign of extensive Trump strength, I'm not sure what to say here.

Polls can't measure:
1) Pro-life folks who just can't bring themselves to pull the "D" lever. They might not vote for President, they might pull the lever for Trump, but they changed their mind at the last minute (likewise for pro-gun folks, although I think most regular gun owners are more reachable than the most pro-life people. Copy for other issues.) [...]

Just as an anecdote, my very very incredibly conservative and “pro life” uncle has realized that the GOP isn’t actually doing anything to reduce abortion or improve the life and health of anyone. He left his 2016 presidential vote blank because he couldn’t excuse Trump’s behavior, but he is voting Biden this year because he says that Biden actually wants a culture of life.

Which is not your larger point, I know, but it’s just a point that yeah, no one knows where some people’s breaking point is.

[Anonymous]

WaPo poll finds both PA and FL at a virtual dead heat.

[Anonymous]

Biden isn’t holding huge rallies because that’s not safe right now. Trump is still holding them because he doesn’t care. This isn’t like 2016 where Trump really did have the momentum on his side and that was reflected in bigger rallies. You can’t compare Trump and Biden right now because they’re not campaigning in the same way at all.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:WaPo poll finds both PA and FL at a virtual dead heat.

Seven points is a “virtual dead heat” in your world?

[Anonymous]

Florida is like that redneck who comes drunk to a party and shits in the middle if the living room. They always pick the worst. I have no hope for Florida.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:WaPo poll finds both PA and FL at a virtual dead heat.

Seven points is a “virtual dead heat” in your world?

You can’t chaos troll if you don’t lie. The “virtual dead heat” pp is just another con.

[Anonymous]

Final NBC/WSJ national poll:

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:WaPo poll finds both PA and FL at a virtual dead heat.

Yes, this makes me nervous, especially PA:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/11/01/post-abc-polls-biden-has-slight-lead-pennsylvania-florida-toss-up/?arc404=true


If Biden picks up GA and NC won't matter but Trump definitely has a path.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Final NBC/WSJ national poll:

National polls are meaningless, only state polls matter.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:WaPo poll finds both PA and FL at a virtual dead heat.

Yes, this makes me nervous, especially PA:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/11/01/post-abc-polls-biden-has-slight-lead-pennsylvania-florida-toss-up/?arc404=true


If Biden picks up GA and NC won't matter but Trump definitely has a path.

51-44 in PA doesn’t make me nervous. Democrats ran the table in PA in 2018 and things have only gotten worse since then. I’m no longer caring about Florida. Biden doesn’t need it and it’s not worth worrying about a total shitshow.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Final NBC/WSJ national poll:

National polls are meaningless, only state polls matter.

You're wrong. They have utility.