Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:2016 strikes again.

Not really.

[Anonymous]

Trump could still win without both PA and MI. not sure why he campaign so hard there.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Trump could still win without both PA and MI. not sure why he campaign so hard there.

Chart the path - it's a very thin one without PA.

[Anonymous]

Ugh, don’t have a good feeling about this ....

[Anonymous]

Why are the polls tightening after half of us have voted?

[Anonymous]

Of course I'll still be watching the polls that come out, but it probably doesn't matter much at this point. Joe Biden is likely to win, but a legit Trump win is still well within the realm of possibility.

[Anonymous]

Trump is no more likely to win Iowa by 7 points than Biden is to win Wisconsin by 17 (per the ABC WaPo poll). These are outliers. They could be right, but more likely Selzer just got an unusual number of Trump voters in the 800 person sample.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Of course I'll still be watching the polls that come out, but it probably doesn't matter much at this point. Joe Biden is likely to win, but a legit Trump win is still well within the realm of possibility.

It is, but the chances are dwindling. They’re not zero, but they’re not huge.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Of course I'll still be watching the polls that come out, but it probably doesn't matter much at this point. Joe Biden is likely to win, but a legit Trump win is still well within the realm of possibility.

It is, but the chances are dwindling. They’re not zero, but they’re not huge.

How are they dwindling?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Of course I'll still be watching the polls that come out, but it probably doesn't matter much at this point. Joe Biden is likely to win, but a legit Trump win is still well within the realm of possibility.

It is, but the chances are dwindling. They’re not zero, but they’re not huge.

How are they dwindling?

Sorry. Yes, Trump’s are dwindling.

[Anonymous]

NYT/Siena polls will be accurate to the extent they don't take suppression and cheating into play.

[Anonymous]

I don’t know about PA. Those Trump rallies were massive. Is there indeed a large uncounted vote there?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don’t know about PA. Those Trump rallies were massive. Is there indeed a large uncounted vote there?

If you read articles about the rallies, you learn that they are sort of like Grateful Dead concerts. There are people who travel around from show to show. Yes, of course locals come out because its always exciting to see a president of the US live and in person, but a few thousand people at a superspreader event is not the same as ensuring the millions of votes needed to win a state or country.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t know about PA. Those Trump rallies were massive. Is there indeed a large uncounted vote there?

If you read articles about the rallies, you learn that they are sort of like Grateful Dead concerts. There are people who travel around from show to show. Yes, of course locals come out because its always exciting to see a president of the US live and in person, but a few thousand people at a superspreader event is not the same as ensuring the millions of votes needed to win a state or country.

Bernie also had a lot of packed rallies. Biden won the nomination. I think you can read enthusiasm into those rallies, but not necessarily numbers.

Anyway, all we can do now is one last GOVT push, and hope.