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Reply to "Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread"
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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I don’t know about PA. Those Trump rallies were massive. Is there indeed a large uncounted vote there?[/quote] Trumpies like to point out There's a number of Trumpheads who will travel 3-4 hours to watch their Leader, their Guide, speaking. If you're arguing that finding 10,000 Trumpheads within 4 hours of just about anywhere in PA is a sign of extensive Trump strength, I'm not sure what to say here. Polls can't measure: 1) Pro-life folks who just can't bring themselves to pull the "D" lever. They might not vote for President, they might pull the lever for Trump, but they changed their mind at the last minute (likewise for pro-gun folks, although I think most regular gun owners are more reachable than the most pro-life people. Copy for other issues.) 2) Intimidation and frivolous lawsuits that somehow get the light of day (e.g. the "toss out 100k votes in Harris County TX)" lawsuit.) Ironically, if the militias show up in great force, they're likely to scare off their own team members, since I though the election day electorate was more R-leaning than the general election electorate. I suppose they could show up in Philadelphia, Milwaukee, etc., and hope there's a number of III Percent and Oath Keepers among the Philadelphia police or that intimidated grannies don't call in THEIR grandkids. 3) I suspect you've got a few remaining low/medium info, paranoid folks that are convinced that unless they vote in person on election day itself their vote just won't count. Or they tried looking at the early voting and just saw (what was to them) a wall of text, or heard about the post office shenanigans, and decided to either not vote or just vote in person on E-day. This is just conjecture. 4) New and low-turnout voters that haven't voted since 2008 that decide now is a good time to vote. I also don't know how much juice the Trump Signal has in pulling out voters that didn't vote in 2016. Each of these can swing things maybe 0.5-1% apiece, tops, but it could swing things 2-4% either way. As to (3): I have a Republican wife (so weekend and after hours stuff is just out of the question) and work in a secure facility (so bringing in my laptops and cell phones isn't going to work either, and I'm not hanging around Starbucks for 2 hours to do phone banking, etc.) I went to the websites and found weekend/after hours stuff, and other stuff I couldn't do. Only a call from a volunteer Friday PM helped me find something I *could* do during the day, which I'll do Monday. Now extrapolate that to someone trying to figure out how voting is going to work in 2020. [/quote]
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