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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]starting to look bleak for Blair[/quote]

Are you at the canvassing site?

Otherwise, we don't know anything until this evening.    I project that Blair will win provisional ballots by a margin of 216, based on the percentage spread between the two candidates during early voting and election day (Blair won both by signifcant margins).  There are about 7,200 of those.

If Blair can close his deficit a bit more this evening, he has a great chance of winning.  But if the gap widens substantially this evening, he is in trouble.

Either way, expect a recount.  [/quote]

I agree it is a tossup, and I think if Blair makes any meaningful gains with this evening’s count, then he is likely to win. However, I don’t think provisionals are a given to go in his favor any more than any other batch. Republicans and Independents switching to Democrats to vote for Blair/against Elrich knew to do so the whole time, unlike in 2018, and they likely did so before the deadline and didn’t need to vote provisionally. This time around, provisional ballots are more likely people who requested a mail-in and went to vote in person. These could go either way. [/quote]

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