Ukraine war - which side is winning?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:First of all, the era of dollar-dominated “financing” is drawing to a close.

Second, to the extent that a default says anything at all about a nations’ trustworthiness, it’s pretty obvious to everyone that the United States froze the assets of the Russian government. Not sure how that really effects Russia’s creditworthiness.

Has Russia restarted their stock exchange yet? Or is it still closed?

Reopened awhile back.

The Russian economy is smoke and mirrors. They can no longer make good on their obligations.

Yes let’s handcuff you and then mock you for not being able to throw punches. Moron.

Yeah, sorry, when you get arrested by the police and handcuffed, you are not able to throw punches. Or pay bills. Do the crime, pay the time.

No one in finance thinks Russia is unable to pay their bills.

There is no police and no time.

So they didn't default? Or are those debt-holders not in finance...

They defaulted purely because sanctions bar them from making their bond interest payments. They have roughly $600 billion in foreign currency reserves, so the issue is not money.

They cannot transact in dollars or euros, due to sanctions. They submitted the payment prior to the original May 27th deadline in rubles. Rubles can’t be transacted internationally due to sanctions, so the payment was not processed. There was a 30-day grace period on the bonds in question, which expired on Sunday night. Therefore, they defaulted.

But let’s be very clear that the Russian economy is not smoke and mirrors. They can meet their obligations. In addition to their foreign currency reserves, they make about $1 billion per day in oil and gas sales. Access to cash is not their problem; sanctions are their problem, because they decided to go and invade Ukraine, like nationalistic psychos.

[Anonymous]

Reality is starting to settle in... hopefully Ukraine can keep some of its resource and industrial assets that remain.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/28/politics/white-house-ukraine-projection/index.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Reality is starting to settle in... hopefully Ukraine can keep some of its resource and industrial assets that remain.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/28/politics/white-house-ukraine-projection/index.html

They doubt that Ukraine can win back all its territory? Welcome to earth, guys! That was fantasy all along.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Reality is starting to settle in... hopefully Ukraine can keep some of its resource and industrial assets that remain.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/28/politics/white-house-ukraine-projection/index.html

They doubt that Ukraine can win back all its territory? Welcome to earth, guys! That was fantasy all along.

Is it too early to remind people about my earlier post betting the final settlement would be close to the Istanbul talks?

[Anonymous]

this thread is so stupid. nobody is going to win. there will just be different degrees os l8sing. at least the Ukrainians can due with their heads held high. the Russians will die knowing they are the new nazis

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Reality is starting to settle in... hopefully Ukraine can keep some of its resource and industrial assets that remain.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/28/politics/white-house-ukraine-projection/index.html

They doubt that Ukraine can win back all its territory? Welcome to earth, guys! That was fantasy all along.

The ultimate question is "How much Russian territory will Moscow be able to keep, after they lose the war with Ukraine?"

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Reality is starting to settle in... hopefully Ukraine can keep some of its resource and industrial assets that remain.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/28/politics/white-house-ukraine-projection/index.html

They doubt that Ukraine can win back all its territory? Welcome to earth, guys! That was fantasy all along.

The ultimate question is "How much Russian territory will Moscow be able to keep, after they lose the war with Ukraine?"

It’s not the ultimate question because they probably will not lose.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:First of all, the era of dollar-dominated “financing” is drawing to a close.

Second, to the extent that a default says anything at all about a nations’ trustworthiness, it’s pretty obvious to everyone that the United States froze the assets of the Russian government. Not sure how that really effects Russia’s creditworthiness.

Has Russia restarted their stock exchange yet? Or is it still closed?

Reopened awhile back.

The Russian economy is smoke and mirrors. They can no longer make good on their obligations.

Yes let’s handcuff you and then mock you for not being able to throw punches. Moron.

Yeah, sorry, when you get arrested by the police and handcuffed, you are not able to throw punches. Or pay bills. Do the crime, pay the time.

No one in finance thinks Russia is unable to pay their bills.

There is no police and no time.

So they didn't default? Or are those debt-holders not in finance...

They defaulted purely because sanctions bar them from making their bond interest payments. They have roughly $600 billion in foreign currency reserves, so the issue is not money.

They cannot transact in dollars or euros, due to sanctions. They submitted the payment prior to the original May 27th deadline in rubles. Rubles can’t be transacted internationally due to sanctions, so the payment was not processed. There was a 30-day grace period on the bonds in question, which expired on Sunday night. Therefore, they defaulted.

But let’s be very clear that the Russian economy is not smoke and mirrors. They can meet their obligations. In addition to their foreign currency reserves, they make about $1 billion per day in oil and gas sales. Access to cash is not their problem; sanctions are their problem, because they decided to go and invade Ukraine, like nationalistic psychos.

Also, Russia can deal with China+India. The U.S. FP/NatSec establishment hasn’t really figured out how much the global balance of power has shifted. And we have a President who was at best a careerist turd and is now just a glue horse. This is shaping to be another epic disaster, another bipartisan descent into foolishness, as if the COVID response (yes, I know it’s another thing/disaster) wasn’t a big enough descent into foolishness.

Shorter: smart people in the US should see that continued war is a staggeringly bad thing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:First of all, the era of dollar-dominated “financing” is drawing to a close.

Second, to the extent that a default says anything at all about a nations’ trustworthiness, it’s pretty obvious to everyone that the United States froze the assets of the Russian government. Not sure how that really effects Russia’s creditworthiness.

Has Russia restarted their stock exchange yet? Or is it still closed?

Reopened awhile back.

The Russian economy is smoke and mirrors. They can no longer make good on their obligations.

Yes let’s handcuff you and then mock you for not being able to throw punches. Moron.

Yeah, sorry, when you get arrested by the police and handcuffed, you are not able to throw punches. Or pay bills. Do the crime, pay the time.

No one in finance thinks Russia is unable to pay their bills.

There is no police and no time.

So they didn't default? Or are those debt-holders not in finance...

They defaulted purely because sanctions bar them from making their bond interest payments. They have roughly $600 billion in foreign currency reserves, so the issue is not money.

They cannot transact in dollars or euros, due to sanctions. They submitted the payment prior to the original May 27th deadline in rubles. Rubles can’t be transacted internationally due to sanctions, so the payment was not processed. There was a 30-day grace period on the bonds in question, which expired on Sunday night. Therefore, they defaulted.

But let’s be very clear that the Russian economy is not smoke and mirrors. They can meet their obligations. In addition to their foreign currency reserves, they make about $1 billion per day in oil and gas sales. Access to cash is not their problem; sanctions are their problem, because they decided to go and invade Ukraine, like nationalistic psychos.

Also, Russia can deal with China+India. The U.S. FP/NatSec establishment hasn’t really figured out how much the global balance of power has shifted. And we have a President who was at best a careerist turd and is now just a glue horse. This is shaping to be another epic disaster, another bipartisan descent into foolishness, as if the COVID response (yes, I know it’s another thing/disaster) wasn’t a big enough descent into foolishness.

Shorter: smart people in the US should see that continued war is a staggeringly bad thing.

Indian is doing a great job buying Russian oil at basement prices. That's good for India, not bad for the global economy, but bad for Russia.

Mass starvation is a staggeringly bad thing, I agree with you there.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think ukraine will be able to stop the offensive and also get some of its lands back. But not the whole lot gained by Russia since February.
The conflict will then freeze, Russia trying to keep what it gained and Ukraine trying to bring as much pain and chaos as possible to the newly Russian territories.
It will go on for years.
I don’t see how any truce is possible right now.

Russia has taken over territory equal to all of Denmark and Austria combined.

Odessa will be fully russian by 2030

I think ukraine will be able to gain some of it back. Russia is stretched thin. And they will have trouble controlling the new lands

They have no trouble controlling Crimea, do they.

You will note they are quite careful to target only the areas they'd be comfortable holding. Remember Donbass and the east of Ukraine in general was vehemently opposed to Maidan and everything that came in 2014. Odessa too. That's where 40+ people burned alive in a building during protests - something Zelensky promised to investigate but never did.

Of course, an unexpected consequence of the Russian invasion was that even pro-Russian areas have turned against Russia somewhat.

Crimea is controllable yes, and they now need a land “bridge” to it. However the way things are going, it seems like they are trying to bite more than they can chew. The most they are able to keep I would say would be Donetsk and Luhansk in their entirety (regions), as well as swaths of Kherson and Zaporozhie.
And it will be dangerous land, everyone in the new administration will need to watch their backs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:But would you not agree that it appers to be Russia is winning more battles and gaining more land in eastern Ukraine?

NP. Yes. But was that the ultimate goal? No. It was a quick, special operation to decapitate.

They didn't do that.

OP here. Yes, I do agree Russia has not achieved their initial objectives but at the end of the day, it's all about control and Russia seems to gaining control over eastern Ukraine (and paying heavy price for it). I don't see the weapons we are sending now helping Ukraine regaining lost areas do you? US is too slow to act, it seems.

Wasn't much of the area that looks to soon be firmly under Russian control very much under Russian control before February? It seems possible that when fighting eases Russia will have taken Mariupol and little else that wasn't very much under its thumb already.

Or am I incorrect?

oh please. To win some villages in Ukraine and one port, but lose all the important markets for your oil and to become international pariahs like N. Korea? That is not winning.

Today they are international pariahs. In 50 years? The world isn’t static.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:But would you not agree that it appers to be Russia is winning more battles and gaining more land in eastern Ukraine?

NP. Yes. But was that the ultimate goal? No. It was a quick, special operation to decapitate.

They didn't do that.

OP here. Yes, I do agree Russia has not achieved their initial objectives but at the end of the day, it's all about control and Russia seems to gaining control over eastern Ukraine (and paying heavy price for it). I don't see the weapons we are sending now helping Ukraine regaining lost areas do you? US is too slow to act, it seems.

Wasn't much of the area that looks to soon be firmly under Russian control very much under Russian control before February? It seems possible that when fighting eases Russia will have taken Mariupol and little else that wasn't very much under its thumb already.

Or am I incorrect?

oh please. To win some villages in Ukraine and one port, but lose all the important markets for your oil and to become international pariahs like N. Korea? That is not winning.

Today they are international pariahs. In 50 years? The world isn’t static.

Sorry, Sergei. In 50 years, Russian atrocities in Bucha and elsewhere will definitely still be remembered and held against you.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:First of all, the era of dollar-dominated “financing” is drawing to a close.

Second, to the extent that a default says anything at all about a nations’ trustworthiness, it’s pretty obvious to everyone that the United States froze the assets of the Russian government. Not sure how that really effects Russia’s creditworthiness.

Has Russia restarted their stock exchange yet? Or is it still closed?

Reopened awhile back.

The Russian economy is smoke and mirrors. They can no longer make good on their obligations.

Yes let’s handcuff you and then mock you for not being able to throw punches. Moron.

Yeah, sorry, when you get arrested by the police and handcuffed, you are not able to throw punches. Or pay bills. Do the crime, pay the time.

No one in finance thinks Russia is unable to pay their bills.

There is no police and no time.

So they didn't default? Or are those debt-holders not in finance...

They defaulted purely because sanctions bar them from making their bond interest payments. They have roughly $600 billion in foreign currency reserves, so the issue is not money.

They cannot transact in dollars or euros, due to sanctions. They submitted the payment prior to the original May 27th deadline in rubles. Rubles can’t be transacted internationally due to sanctions, so the payment was not processed. There was a 30-day grace period on the bonds in question, which expired on Sunday night. Therefore, they defaulted.

But let’s be very clear that the Russian economy is not smoke and mirrors. They can meet their obligations. In addition to their foreign currency reserves, they make about $1 billion per day in oil and gas sales. Access to cash is not their problem; sanctions are their problem, because they decided to go and invade Ukraine, like nationalistic psychos.

Also, Russia can deal with China+India. The U.S. FP/NatSec establishment hasn’t really figured out how much the global balance of power has shifted. And we have a President who was at best a careerist turd and is now just a glue horse. This is shaping to be another epic disaster, another bipartisan descent into foolishness, as if the COVID response (yes, I know it’s another thing/disaster) wasn’t a big enough descent into foolishness.

Shorter: smart people in the US should see that continued war is a staggeringly bad thing.

Indian is doing a great job buying Russian oil at basement prices. That's good for India, not bad for the global economy, but bad for Russia.

Mass starvation is a staggeringly bad thing, I agree with you there.

I don't think this is a bad war at all. It has inflicted significant attrition on Russia's military capabilities and is grinding Russia down. They are becoming weaker and weaker to their neighbors as a geopolitical threat by the week.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:But would you not agree that it appers to be Russia is winning more battles and gaining more land in eastern Ukraine?

NP. Yes. But was that the ultimate goal? No. It was a quick, special operation to decapitate.

They didn't do that.

OP here. Yes, I do agree Russia has not achieved their initial objectives but at the end of the day, it's all about control and Russia seems to gaining control over eastern Ukraine (and paying heavy price for it). I don't see the weapons we are sending now helping Ukraine regaining lost areas do you? US is too slow to act, it seems.

Wasn't much of the area that looks to soon be firmly under Russian control very much under Russian control before February? It seems possible that when fighting eases Russia will have taken Mariupol and little else that wasn't very much under its thumb already.

Or am I incorrect?

oh please. To win some villages in Ukraine and one port, but lose all the important markets for your oil and to become international pariahs like N. Korea? That is not winning.

Today they are international pariahs. In 50 years? The world isn’t static.

Sorry, Sergei. In 50 years, Russian atrocities in Bucha and elsewhere will definitely still be remembered and held against you.

I’m a black American but thanks for calling me Sergei.

Just like how today we remember the atrocities that our government committed against my people — my great grandfather was a slave in Lynchburg VA — I’m sure you simultaneously acknowledge how awful this was of our government while also believing that the US are the “good guys” and anyone who who points out that they are in fact just as culpable for historical death and destruction as Russia is a “Sergei”.

Also, I know the internet emboldens you, but you really should speak to others how you would in person. You wouldn’t call me, a 6’3 black dude from DC, “Sergei” in person, would you? Be civil even though this is anonymous.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:But would you not agree that it appers to be Russia is winning more battles and gaining more land in eastern Ukraine?

NP. Yes. But was that the ultimate goal? No. It was a quick, special operation to decapitate.

They didn't do that.

OP here. Yes, I do agree Russia has not achieved their initial objectives but at the end of the day, it's all about control and Russia seems to gaining control over eastern Ukraine (and paying heavy price for it). I don't see the weapons we are sending now helping Ukraine regaining lost areas do you? US is too slow to act, it seems.

Wasn't much of the area that looks to soon be firmly under Russian control very much under Russian control before February? It seems possible that when fighting eases Russia will have taken Mariupol and little else that wasn't very much under its thumb already.

Or am I incorrect?

oh please. To win some villages in Ukraine and one port, but lose all the important markets for your oil and to become international pariahs like N. Korea? That is not winning.

Today they are international pariahs. In 50 years? The world isn’t static.

Sorry, Sergei. In 50 years, Russian atrocities in Bucha and elsewhere will definitely still be remembered and held against you.

I’m a black American but thanks for calling me Sergei.

Just like how today we remember the atrocities that our government committed against my people — my great grandfather was a slave in Lynchburg VA — I’m sure you simultaneously acknowledge how awful this was of our government while also believing that the US are the “good guys” and anyone who who points out that they are in fact just as culpable for historical death and destruction as Russia is a “Sergei”.

Also, I know the internet emboldens you, but you really should speak to others how you would in person. You wouldn’t call me, a 6’3 black dude from DC, “Sergei” in person, would you? Be civil even though this is anonymous.

I don’t know, I think it would be funny to see him call you Sergei; maybe Vladimir.

Listen up Dimitri — the USA is always the good goys! American F yeah! Zomg Russia killing all those people in that one village is a genocide (please ignore our firebombing of Tokyo and Dresden). Those darn Russian war criminals! Why can’t they just drop nuclear bombs and vaporize hundreds of thousands of civilians like us? We and our allies—like the raping, murderous communists of Soviet Union—are ALWAYS the good guys, bucko! One need look no farther than our “closest ally” Israel today to see our firm commitment to human rights.

So everyone needs to put down the vodka, raise the blue and yellow flag, and push the world to the brink of nuclear annihilation because Putin bad and Ukraine good. What could go wrong? We got this! America F yeah!!!!