Ukraine war - which side is winning?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm not sure that we could describe either side as "winning" since the objectives were never clear from the Russian side.

In the early days of the invasion, media outlets were predicting the extremely short timeline (a few days) where they predicted Kyiv would fall. That...obviously hasn't happened. Are we to then assume that any outcome where Kyiv doesn't fall into the hands of the Russians a win for Ukrainians?

Yes. Absolutely yes.

I think most observers understand that this will not end in a full military victory for Ukraine, in that they will almost certainly end the war with less territory than they had in 2014 and maybe even less than they had on February 23, 2022. But they will also exist as a potential EU candidate and a full member of Europe in all other sense.

To the degree that Russia's stated objective was regime change, they've lost. To the extent that Russia wanted a show of military force, they've lost. To the extent that Russia wanted to have any operational readiness for the next five years, they've lose. To the extent that Russia wanted a "rally around the flag" phenomenon to carry Russia past Putin's upcoming demise, I suspect they've lost as well.

Your last point, the Russian people are losing patience with the conflict?

It's SO HARD to tell, but yes. You have to understand that Russia's been lying about the war domestically since the outset, and claiming that conscripts would not be sent to Ukraine. The number of 100% confirmed deaths is around 3,000. The real numbers are expected to be about treble that if not more. Russia is also losing very senior military leadership. Taken together, you are going to have the truth trickling out, either from families who lost their sons or from "political society" who starts noticing some folks missing from the meetings.

If you take a historical lens, I think there's an analogy here to Chernobyl. The Chernobyl meltdown and the associated mishandling/obfuscation by the Soviet government, didn't lead to immediate public opinion changes but in the longer-term they wildly undermined faith in the regime.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think this is a stunning loss for Russia. I do not think that Ukraine will concede any territory. Not when they still have willing fighters and the world willing to arm them. And I think that this war has decimated the Russian war machine and also destroyed its economy for the long term. The only countries who will be trading with Russia in a few years will be other countries like China that should be next on our list to cut off from world trade anyway.

This invasion was a very bad mistake from Russia. Hopefully China is watching closely.

I too believe Ukraine will fight until there's no more soliders left. My biggest concern, however, is not Ukraine's resolve, it's whether west's unity and willingness to provide weapons will last. We are already beginning to see fractures - France and Germany in particular. This plays into Putin's calculus on how the war will play out. Even here in US, Ukraine is no longer evening news headlines. West has very short memories.

I think you are right to raise the attention span question, but I think you are overestimating the role of public opinion. At this point, it really matters less what leads the evening news so long as policymakers understand the threat that Russia represents to the world order.

You've also seen sanctions moving forward even as public attention has drifted. The EU tightened oil sanctions this week, banning Russian oil imports that arrive by sea. Meanwhile other countries, including Germany, have said they will also stop importing Russian oil by land. That basically decimates Russia's oil exports to Europe, leaving them with Hungary and Slovakia.

Finally, I think public attention is going to swing back once the criminal tribunals get going with presentation of war crimes evidence. It's pretty harrowing, and the brutality of the Russian occupiers is going to shock the imaginations of a lot of folks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think this is a stunning loss for Russia. I do not think that Ukraine will concede any territory. Not when they still have willing fighters and the world willing to arm them. And I think that this war has decimated the Russian war machine and also destroyed its economy for the long term. The only countries who will be trading with Russia in a few years will be other countries like China that should be next on our list to cut off from world trade anyway.

This invasion was a very bad mistake from Russia. Hopefully China is watching closely.

I too believe Ukraine will fight until there's no more soliders left. My biggest concern, however, is not Ukraine's resolve, it's whether west's unity and willingness to provide weapons will last. We are already beginning to see fractures - France and Germany in particular. This plays into Putin's calculus on how the war will play out. Even here in US, Ukraine is no longer evening news headlines. West has very short memories.

I think you are right to raise the attention span question, but I think you are overestimating the role of public opinion. At this point, it really matters less what leads the evening news so long as policymakers understand the threat that Russia represents to the world order.

You've also seen sanctions moving forward even as public attention has drifted. The EU tightened oil sanctions this week, banning Russian oil imports that arrive by sea. Meanwhile other countries, including Germany, have said they will also stop importing Russian oil by land. That basically decimates Russia's oil exports to Europe, leaving them with Hungary and Slovakia.

Finally, I think public attention is going to swing back once the criminal tribunals get going with presentation of war crimes evidence. It's pretty harrowing, and the brutality of the Russian occupiers is going to shock the imaginations of a lot of folks.

As far as resolve goes, these weapons are killing russian soldiers and destroying russian armored vehicles. That is what they were designed to do, and it's much better for the west if it's Ukrainian troops risking their lives to do it not NATO troops. As far as sanctions go, there isn't much reason to expect that they'll be lifted- they have their own inertia once in place. Look at all the tariffs that Trump instituted against China. At the time, democrats railed against them, yet they are still in place with no real movement on lifting them

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm not sure that we could describe either side as "winning" since the objectives were never clear from the Russian side.

In the early days of the invasion, media outlets were predicting the extremely short timeline (a few days) where they predicted Kyiv would fall. That...obviously hasn't happened. Are we to then assume that any outcome where Kyiv doesn't fall into the hands of the Russians a win for Ukrainians?

Yes. Absolutely yes.

I think most observers understand that this will not end in a full military victory for Ukraine, in that they will almost certainly end the war with less territory than they had in 2014 and maybe even less than they had on February 23, 2022. But they will also exist as a potential EU candidate and a full member of Europe in all other sense.

To the degree that Russia's stated objective was regime change, they've lost. To the extent that Russia wanted a show of military force, they've lost. To the extent that Russia wanted to have any operational readiness for the next five years, they've lose. To the extent that Russia wanted a "rally around the flag" phenomenon to carry Russia past Putin's upcoming demise, I suspect they've lost as well.

Your last point, the Russian people are losing patience with the conflict?

It's SO HARD to tell, but yes. You have to understand that Russia's been lying about the war domestically since the outset, and claiming that conscripts would not be sent to Ukraine. The number of 100% confirmed deaths is around 3,000. The real numbers are expected to be about treble that if not more. Russia is also losing very senior military leadership. Taken together, you are going to have the truth trickling out, either from families who lost their sons or from "political society" who starts noticing some folks missing from the meetings.

If you take a historical lens, I think there's an analogy here to Chernobyl. The Chernobyl meltdown and the associated mishandling/obfuscation by the Soviet government, didn't lead to immediate public opinion changes but in the longer-term they wildly undermined faith in the regime.

3k ??

Try 10 times that number killed in action:

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:But would you not agree that it appers to be Russia is winning more battles and gaining more land in eastern Ukraine?

NP. Yes. But was that the ultimate goal? No. It was a quick, special operation to decapitate.

They didn't do that.

OP here. Yes, I do agree Russia has not achieved their initial objectives but at the end of the day, it's all about control and Russia seems to gaining control over eastern Ukraine (and paying heavy price for it). I don't see the weapons we are sending now helping Ukraine regaining lost areas do you? US is too slow to act, it seems.

Wasn't much of the area that looks to soon be firmly under Russian control very much under Russian control before February? It seems possible that when fighting eases Russia will have taken Mariupol and little else that wasn't very much under its thumb already.

Or am I incorrect?

oh please. To win some villages in Ukraine and one port, but lose all the important markets for your oil and to become international pariahs like N. Korea? That is not winning.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:But would you not agree that it appers to be Russia is winning more battles and gaining more land in eastern Ukraine?

NP. Yes. But was that the ultimate goal? No. It was a quick, special operation to decapitate.

They didn't do that.

OP here. Yes, I do agree Russia has not achieved their initial objectives but at the end of the day, it's all about control and Russia seems to gaining control over eastern Ukraine (and paying heavy price for it). I don't see the weapons we are sending now helping Ukraine regaining lost areas do you? US is too slow to act, it seems.

Wasn't much of the area that looks to soon be firmly under Russian control very much under Russian control before February? It seems possible that when fighting eases Russia will have taken Mariupol and little else that wasn't very much under its thumb already.

Or am I incorrect?

oh please. To win some villages in Ukraine and one port, but lose all the important markets for your oil and to become international pariahs like N. Korea? That is not winning.

Plus, the Russians haven’t even “won” these areas. To “win” Mariupol, the Russians had to literally flatten it. The Russians may physically control Kherson and Melitopol, but there is an active resistance that is blowing up collaborators and hitting Russian military in the occupied territories.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/06/05/ukraines-partisans-are-hitting-russian-soldiers-behind-their-own-lines

Russia will not “win” this war.

Yes, the US and Europe have been too slow to comprehend Putin’s real aims, but we are sending better weapons now (still too slowly), and I’ve no doubt the Ukrainians will make good use of them.

[Anonymous]

Ukraine is going to end up a landlocked, utterly destroyed wasteland. Russia will capture all of Ukraine’s industry, coastline, and harbors and thereby control the lion’s share of the world‘s wheat, fertilizer, oil, and gas.

America will pretend that the fact Russia didn’t capture all of Ukraine is a “victory” for Ukraine and America. And the credulous American public will swallow and accept this rubbish just like many of you believed the foolish lie that there was ever a chance that the oligarchs whom Putin made would overthrow him….

[Anonymous]

I don’t trust anything these days w/o seeing with mine own eyes
This is the TikTok war

[Anonymous]

Russia is “winning” small territorial gains and losing them because they are unable to consolidate their gains. The major advantage the Russians have is longer range artillery and a rear support area(Russian territory) that are safe.

I wish the US would supply the Ukrainians with the weapons they need to take out the Russian artillery and hit Russian is the rear areas. 4 MLRS does not cut it.

The US is supplying weapons. We have not supplied them with enough or with the type that would break the Russian assault. That is the only way to stop the war quickly. If things continue as is the war continues which favors the Russians as European bail out.

[Anonymous]

Another point is what will happen inside Russian control areas. Will areas like Chechnya and Georgia receive arms and support from the Ukraine? That will happened.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Ukraine is going to end up a landlocked, utterly destroyed wasteland. Russia will capture all of Ukraine’s industry, coastline, and harbors and thereby control the lion’s share of the world‘s wheat, fertilizer, oil, and gas.

America will pretend that the fact Russia didn’t capture all of Ukraine is a “victory” for Ukraine and America. And the credulous American public will swallow and accept this rubbish just like many of you believed the foolish lie that there was ever a chance that the oligarchs whom Putin made would overthrow him….

This is nonsense. Did you forget the "/s"?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ukraine is going to end up a landlocked, utterly destroyed wasteland. Russia will capture all of Ukraine’s industry, coastline, and harbors and thereby control the lion’s share of the world‘s wheat, fertilizer, oil, and gas.

America will pretend that the fact Russia didn’t capture all of Ukraine is a “victory” for Ukraine and America. And the credulous American public will swallow and accept this rubbish just like many of you believed me the foolish lie that there was ever a chance that the oligarchs whom Putin made would overthrow him….

This is nonsense. Did you forget the "/s"?

Riiiight. The Ukrainian govt did NOT just admit that Russia is poised to control all of the Donbas and southeastern Ukraine. It’s NOT true that Russian control of those areas would leave Ukraine landlocked and Russia in control of Ukraine’s harbors. It’s all a lie. Mmmhmm. Keep your eyes and ears closed tight now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
Ukraine is going to end up a landlocked, utterly destroyed wasteland. Russia will capture all of Ukraine’s industry, coastline, and harbors and thereby control the lion’s share of the world‘s wheat, fertilizer, oil, and gas.

America will pretend that the fact Russia didn’t capture all of Ukraine is a “victory” for Ukraine and America. And the credulous American public will swallow and accept this rubbish just like many of you believed the foolish lie that there was ever a chance that the oligarchs whom Putin made would overthrow him….

Just a reality check here. The "lion's share of the word's oil and gas"?? Lots of oil and gas is here in North America, in the Middle East, and in places like Venezuela and in the North Sea. What are you talking about?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Ukraine is going to end up a landlocked, utterly destroyed wasteland. Russia will capture all of Ukraine’s industry, coastline, and harbors and thereby control the lion’s share of the world‘s wheat, fertilizer, oil, and gas.

America will pretend that the fact Russia didn’t capture all of Ukraine is a “victory” for Ukraine and America. And the credulous American public will swallow and accept this rubbish just like many of you believed the foolish lie that there was ever a chance that the oligarchs whom Putin made would overthrow him….

Just a reality check here. The "lion's share of the word's oil and gas"?? Lots of oil and gas is here in North America, in the Middle East, and in places like Venezuela and in the North Sea. What are you talking about?

Yes crazy

Oil Reserves (barrels)

1 Venezuela 299,953,000,000 18.2%
2 Saudi Arabia 266,578,000,000 16.2%
3 Canada 170,863,000,000 10.4%
4 Iran 157,530,000,000 9.5%
5 Iraq 143,069,000,000 8.7%
6 Kuwait 101,500,000,000 6.1%
7 United Arab Emirates 97,800,000,000 5.9%
8 Russia 80,000,000,000. 4.8%
51 Ukraine 395,000,000. 0.024%

What does it say about oil as a future when 4.8% of the reserves are partially restricted and the price jumps over 100%. Looks like demand is out stripping supply. It’s not like there is some huge undiscovered reserves. I bet oils will hit $200 a barrel in the next 10 years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Ukraine is going to end up a landlocked, utterly destroyed wasteland. Russia will capture all of Ukraine’s industry, coastline, and harbors and thereby control the lion’s share of the world‘s wheat, fertilizer, oil, and gas.

America will pretend that the fact Russia didn’t capture all of Ukraine is a “victory” for Ukraine and America. And the credulous American public will swallow and accept this rubbish just like many of you believed the foolish lie that there was ever a chance that the oligarchs whom Putin made would overthrow him….

Just a reality check here. The "lion's share of the word's oil and gas"?? Lots of oil and gas is here in North America, in the Middle East, and in places like Venezuela and in the North Sea. What are you talking about?

Embarrassing that you’re nitpicking the oil/gas reference in PP’s comment bc s/he’s right about everything else.

Btw, Russia’s going to control Russian, Ukrainian, and Kazakh oil/gas and has sway w/ Saudis that Biden doesn’t bc he was talking trash on the campaign trail.

Just saying.