Ukraine war - which side is winning?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:First of all, the era of dollar-dominated “financing” is drawing to a close.

Second, to the extent that a default says anything at all about a nations’ trustworthiness, it’s pretty obvious to everyone that the United States froze the assets of the Russian government. Not sure how that really effects Russia’s creditworthiness.

Has Russia restarted their stock exchange yet? Or is it still closed?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:First of all, the era of dollar-dominated “financing” is drawing to a close.

Second, to the extent that a default says anything at all about a nations’ trustworthiness, it’s pretty obvious to everyone that the United States froze the assets of the Russian government. Not sure how that really effects Russia’s creditworthiness.

Has Russia restarted their stock exchange yet? Or is it still closed?

Reopened awhile back.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:First of all, the era of dollar-dominated “financing” is drawing to a close.

Second, to the extent that a default says anything at all about a nations’ trustworthiness, it’s pretty obvious to everyone that the United States froze the assets of the Russian government. Not sure how that really effects Russia’s creditworthiness.

Has Russia restarted their stock exchange yet? Or is it still closed?

Reopened awhile back.

Then the Russian economy is just fine. No problems at all.

Right.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think ukraine will be able to stop the offensive and also get some of its lands back. But not the whole lot gained by Russia since February.
The conflict will then freeze, Russia trying to keep what it gained and Ukraine trying to bring as much pain and chaos as possible to the newly Russian territories.
It will go on for years.
I don’t see how any truce is possible right now.

Russia has taken over territory equal to all of Denmark and Austria combined.

Odessa will be fully russian by 2030

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

didn't we do that a few years ago?

What on earth makes you think the U.S. defaulted on its debt?

Doesn’t know any basic economics and reads trashy mass media rag headlines.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think ukraine will be able to stop the offensive and also get some of its lands back. But not the whole lot gained by Russia since February.
The conflict will then freeze, Russia trying to keep what it gained and Ukraine trying to bring as much pain and chaos as possible to the newly Russian territories.
It will go on for years.
I don’t see how any truce is possible right now.

Russia has taken over territory equal to all of Denmark and Austria combined.

Odessa will be fully russian by 2030

I think ukraine will be able to gain some of it back. Russia is stretched thin. And they will have trouble controlling the new lands

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think ukraine will be able to stop the offensive and also get some of its lands back. But not the whole lot gained by Russia since February.
The conflict will then freeze, Russia trying to keep what it gained and Ukraine trying to bring as much pain and chaos as possible to the newly Russian territories.
It will go on for years.
I don’t see how any truce is possible right now.

Russia has taken over territory equal to all of Denmark and Austria combined.

Odessa will be fully russian by 2030

I think ukraine will be able to gain some of it back. Russia is stretched thin. And they will have trouble controlling the new lands

They have no trouble controlling Crimea, do they.

You will note they are quite careful to target only the areas they'd be comfortable holding. Remember Donbass and the east of Ukraine in general was vehemently opposed to Maidan and everything that came in 2014. Odessa too. That's where 40+ people burned alive in a building during protests - something Zelensky promised to investigate but never did.

Of course, an unexpected consequence of the Russian invasion was that even pro-Russian areas have turned against Russia somewhat.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think ukraine will be able to stop the offensive and also get some of its lands back. But not the whole lot gained by Russia since February.
The conflict will then freeze, Russia trying to keep what it gained and Ukraine trying to bring as much pain and chaos as possible to the newly Russian territories.
It will go on for years.
I don’t see how any truce is possible right now.

Russia has taken over territory equal to all of Denmark and Austria combined.

Odessa will be fully russian by 2030

I think ukraine will be able to gain some of it back. Russia is stretched thin. And they will have trouble controlling the new lands

They have no trouble controlling Crimea, do they.

You will note they are quite careful to target only the areas they'd be comfortable holding. Remember Donbass and the east of Ukraine in general was vehemently opposed to Maidan and everything that came in 2014. Odessa too. That's where 40+ people burned alive in a building during protests - something Zelensky promised to investigate but never did.

Of course, an unexpected consequence of the Russian invasion was that even pro-Russian areas have turned against Russia somewhat.

Yeah when you senselessly kill thousands of civilians and completely level village after village that tends to make people not like you.

[Anonymous]

Listening to our Secretary of State desperately try to explain the US really still has all this power as its policies continue to fail is pretty pathetic.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think ukraine will be able to stop the offensive and also get some of its lands back. But not the whole lot gained by Russia since February.
The conflict will then freeze, Russia trying to keep what it gained and Ukraine trying to bring as much pain and chaos as possible to the newly Russian territories.
It will go on for years.
I don’t see how any truce is possible right now.

Russia has taken over territory equal to all of Denmark and Austria combined.

Odessa will be fully russian by 2030

By 2030?

Are you predicting this war could last 7 years?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:First of all, the era of dollar-dominated “financing” is drawing to a close.

Second, to the extent that a default says anything at all about a nations’ trustworthiness, it’s pretty obvious to everyone that the United States froze the assets of the Russian government. Not sure how that really effects Russia’s creditworthiness.

Has Russia restarted their stock exchange yet? Or is it still closed?

Reopened awhile back.

The Russian economy is smoke and mirrors. They can no longer make good on their obligations.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think ukraine will be able to stop the offensive and also get some of its lands back. But not the whole lot gained by Russia since February.
The conflict will then freeze, Russia trying to keep what it gained and Ukraine trying to bring as much pain and chaos as possible to the newly Russian territories.
It will go on for years.
I don’t see how any truce is possible right now.

Russia has taken over territory equal to all of Denmark and Austria combined.

Odessa will be fully russian by 2030

By 2030?

Are you predicting this war could last 7 years?

Yes - this is gonna be a grind.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think ukraine will be able to stop the offensive and also get some of its lands back. But not the whole lot gained by Russia since February.
The conflict will then freeze, Russia trying to keep what it gained and Ukraine trying to bring as much pain and chaos as possible to the newly Russian territories.
It will go on for years.
I don’t see how any truce is possible right now.

Russia has taken over territory equal to all of Denmark and Austria combined.

Odessa will be fully russian by 2030

Odessa will never by fully Russian, nor will any part of Ukraine outside of Crimea and maybe Donbas, even if Russian technically annexes it. Look at Kherson. Captured by Russian but with a growing and increasingly effective resistance movement by local Ukrainians. Americans learned this lesson is Fallujah. Just because you can take it, doesn't mean you can hold it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:First of all, the era of dollar-dominated “financing” is drawing to a close.

Second, to the extent that a default says anything at all about a nations’ trustworthiness, it’s pretty obvious to everyone that the United States froze the assets of the Russian government. Not sure how that really effects Russia’s creditworthiness.

Has Russia restarted their stock exchange yet? Or is it still closed?

Reopened awhile back.

The Russian economy is smoke and mirrors. They can no longer make good on their obligations.

Yes let’s handcuff you and then mock you for not being able to throw punches. Moron.

Yeah, sorry, when you get arrested by the police and handcuffed, you are not able to throw punches. Or pay bills. Do the crime, pay the time.

No one in finance thinks Russia is unable to pay their bills.

There is no police and no time.

So they didn't default? Or are those debt-holders not in finance...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think ukraine will be able to stop the offensive and also get some of its lands back. But not the whole lot gained by Russia since February.
The conflict will then freeze, Russia trying to keep what it gained and Ukraine trying to bring as much pain and chaos as possible to the newly Russian territories.
It will go on for years.
I don’t see how any truce is possible right now.

Russia has taken over territory equal to all of Denmark and Austria combined.

Odessa will be fully russian by 2030

Odessa will never by fully Russian, nor will any part of Ukraine outside of Crimea and maybe Donbas, even if Russian technically annexes it. Look at Kherson. Captured by Russian but with a growing and increasingly effective resistance movement by local Ukrainians. Americans learned this lesson is Fallujah. Just because you can take it, doesn't mean you can hold it.

Maybe not, but it can be a bargaining chip in the future negotiations.

In this context, it is very revealing to see that even the NATO officials are beginning to say things like "land for peace". This is all despite the slogans and the speeches of "not an inch!"

https://investogist.com/ukraine-to-decide-how-much-territory-it-will-sacrifice-for-peace-nato/

While the NATO chief said that the West was willing to “pay a price” to strengthen the Ukrainian military, Kiev will have to make some territorial concessions to Moscow in order to end the current conflict.

“Peace is possible,” he said. “The only question is what price are you willing to pay for peace? How much territory, how much independence, how much sovereignty…are you willing to sacrifice for peace?”

Scott Ritter summarized it best:

"To recap — the secretary general of the trans-Atlantic alliance responsible for pushing Ukraine into its current conflict with Russia is now proposing that Ukraine be willing to accept the permanent loss of sovereign territory because NATO miscalculated and Russia —instead of being humiliated on the field of battle and crushed economically — is winning on both fronts."

https://scheerpost.com/2022/06/26/scott-ritter-the-fantasy-of-fanaticism/