Ukraine war - which side is winning?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:But would you not agree that it appers to be Russia is winning more battles and gaining more land in eastern Ukraine?

NP. Yes. But was that the ultimate goal? No. It was a quick, special operation to decapitate.

They didn't do that.

OP here. Yes, I do agree Russia has not achieved their initial objectives but at the end of the day, it's all about control and Russia seems to gaining control over eastern Ukraine (and paying heavy price for it). I don't see the weapons we are sending now helping Ukraine regaining lost areas do you? US is too slow to act, it seems.

Wasn't much of the area that looks to soon be firmly under Russian control very much under Russian control before February? It seems possible that when fighting eases Russia will have taken Mariupol and little else that wasn't very much under its thumb already.

Or am I incorrect?

oh please. To win some villages in Ukraine and one port, but lose all the important markets for your oil and to become international pariahs like N. Korea? That is not winning.

Today they are international pariahs. In 50 years? The world isn’t static.

How are they a pariah? They are welcome in China, India, Brazil, most of Africa, much of Asia, most of Latin America. You have what I call white blindness, you think that only things done by white people matter.

The jury is out on how the world will see Bucha 50 years from now. The fog of war is thick with lies on both sides. Ukraine has already admitted most stories of mass rape and child rape were fabrications. The woman who pushed these stories out (gleefully picked up by most mainstream media without a question, I should note) explained her actions as "we are fighting an information war." The touching photo of a child with vital info written on her back in case "she is captured by the Russians"? Fabrication. Yet much of it is regurgitated in the media mindlessly because the narrative of the war has been crystallized and facts don't really matter.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:First of all, the era of dollar-dominated “financing” is drawing to a close.

Second, to the extent that a default says anything at all about a nations’ trustworthiness, it’s pretty obvious to everyone that the United States froze the assets of the Russian government. Not sure how that really effects Russia’s creditworthiness.

Has Russia restarted their stock exchange yet? Or is it still closed?

Reopened awhile back.

The Russian economy is smoke and mirrors. They can no longer make good on their obligations.

Yes let’s handcuff you and then mock you for not being able to throw punches. Moron.

Yeah, sorry, when you get arrested by the police and handcuffed, you are not able to throw punches. Or pay bills. Do the crime, pay the time.

No one in finance thinks Russia is unable to pay their bills.

There is no police and no time.

So they didn't default? Or are those debt-holders not in finance...

They defaulted purely because sanctions bar them from making their bond interest payments. They have roughly $600 billion in foreign currency reserves, so the issue is not money.

They cannot transact in dollars or euros, due to sanctions. They submitted the payment prior to the original May 27th deadline in rubles. Rubles can’t be transacted internationally due to sanctions, so the payment was not processed. There was a 30-day grace period on the bonds in question, which expired on Sunday night. Therefore, they defaulted.

But let’s be very clear that the Russian economy is not smoke and mirrors. They can meet their obligations. In addition to their foreign currency reserves, they make about $1 billion per day in oil and gas sales. Access to cash is not their problem; sanctions are their problem, because they decided to go and invade Ukraine, like nationalistic psychos.

Also, Russia can deal with China+India. The U.S. FP/NatSec establishment hasn’t really figured out how much the global balance of power has shifted. And we have a President who was at best a careerist turd and is now just a glue horse. This is shaping to be another epic disaster, another bipartisan descent into foolishness, as if the COVID response (yes, I know it’s another thing/disaster) wasn’t a big enough descent into foolishness.

Shorter: smart people in the US should see that continued war is a staggeringly bad thing.

Indian is doing a great job buying Russian oil at basement prices. That's good for India, not bad for the global economy, but bad for Russia.

Mass starvation is a staggeringly bad thing, I agree with you there.

The idea that it’s ‘bad for Russia’ to sell oil to India is next-level stupid. Alas, this blinkered perspective is shared by many in power and so a large part of why the obvious failures have yet to be acknowledged.

[Anonymous]

No matter how you slice it Russia will have severely restricted access to cutting edge technology; heck, to any modern tech. China won’t help much for a host of reasons.
This alone is a great danger to economy.
I don’t know how the war will pan out but i am sad for this great country’s future! I can’t hate Russia because there’s too much good in it - not its leadership alas - but it’s all in jeopardy now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:No matter how you slice it Russia will have severely restricted access to cutting edge technology; heck, to any modern tech. China won’t help much for a host of reasons.
This alone is a great danger to economy.
I don’t know how the war will pan out but i am sad for this great country’s future! I can’t hate Russia because there’s too much good in it - not its leadership alas - but it’s all in jeopardy now.

Show evidence that China won’t help.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No matter how you slice it Russia will have severely restricted access to cutting edge technology; heck, to any modern tech. China won’t help much for a host of reasons.
This alone is a great danger to economy.
I don’t know how the war will pan out but i am sad for this great country’s future! I can’t hate Russia because there’s too much good in it - not its leadership alas - but it’s all in jeopardy now.

Show evidence that China won’t help.

That's not what they do.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No matter how you slice it Russia will have severely restricted access to cutting edge technology; heck, to any modern tech. China won’t help much for a host of reasons.
This alone is a great danger to economy.
I don’t know how the war will pan out but i am sad for this great country’s future! I can’t hate Russia because there’s too much good in it - not its leadership alas - but it’s all in jeopardy now.

Show evidence that China won’t help.

That's not what they do.

And 35 years ago the Chinese didn’t make any world-class consumer goods. Now they make many of them. Don’t count on the Chinese behaving to the US’s benefit.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No matter how you slice it Russia will have severely restricted access to cutting edge technology; heck, to any modern tech. China won’t help much for a host of reasons.
This alone is a great danger to economy.
I don’t know how the war will pan out but i am sad for this great country’s future! I can’t hate Russia because there’s too much good in it - not its leadership alas - but it’s all in jeopardy now.

Show evidence that China won’t help.

Smartphone imports from China went way down. I haven’t read about any significant help from China. Even India is doing more.
I really wish all the best to the regular people of Russia but I just don’t see how they can escape the consequences of their leaders’ decisions

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No matter how you slice it Russia will have severely restricted access to cutting edge technology; heck, to any modern tech. China won’t help much for a host of reasons.
This alone is a great danger to economy.
I don’t know how the war will pan out but i am sad for this great country’s future! I can’t hate Russia because there’s too much good in it - not its leadership alas - but it’s all in jeopardy now.

Show evidence that China won’t help.

That's not what they do.

And 35 years ago the Chinese didn’t make any world-class consumer goods. Now they make many of them. Don’t count on the Chinese behaving to the US’s benefit.

The only benefit they care about is their own. They won’t help unless there is a very compelling reason and very low risk of secondary sanctions

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:But would you not agree that it appers to be Russia is winning more battles and gaining more land in eastern Ukraine?

NP. Yes. But was that the ultimate goal? No. It was a quick, special operation to decapitate.

They didn't do that.

OP here. Yes, I do agree Russia has not achieved their initial objectives but at the end of the day, it's all about control and Russia seems to gaining control over eastern Ukraine (and paying heavy price for it). I don't see the weapons we are sending now helping Ukraine regaining lost areas do you? US is too slow to act, it seems.

Wasn't much of the area that looks to soon be firmly under Russian control very much under Russian control before February? It seems possible that when fighting eases Russia will have taken Mariupol and little else that wasn't very much under its thumb already.

Or am I incorrect?

oh please. To win some villages in Ukraine and one port, but lose all the important markets for your oil and to become international pariahs like N. Korea? That is not winning.

Today they are international pariahs. In 50 years? The world isn’t static.

How are they a pariah? They are welcome in China, India, Brazil, most of Africa, much of Asia, most of Latin America. You have what I call white blindness, you think that only things done by white people matter.

The jury is out on how the world will see Bucha 50 years from now. The fog of war is thick with lies on both sides. Ukraine has already admitted most stories of mass rape and child rape were fabrications. The woman who pushed these stories out (gleefully picked up by most mainstream media without a question, I should note) explained her actions as "we are fighting an information war." The touching photo of a child with vital info written on her back in case "she is captured by the Russians"? Fabrication. Yet much of it is regurgitated in the media mindlessly because the narrative of the war has been crystallized and facts don't really matter.

LMAO! You're delusional, Sergei. Even Russia's closest ally Belarus isn't in a full embrace with Russia.

China has been distancing themselves from the dumpster fire that is Russia. They backed out of a key banking deal that would have held their credit cards afloat, backed out of deals to supply key materials needed by their military and so much more. India is just taking advantage of Russia's fire sale on oil and gas. There isn't much to be had from the rest - Cuba, Venezuela, some flaky pundits and minority faction leaders in third world countries who have nothing of substance to offer.

Just look at the UN votes of condemnation for Russia for their invasion of Ukraine. Overwhelming condemnation, only a tiny handful of countries that either voted to oppose or non-vote regarding condemnation.

Get a grip. Get in touch with reality. The world hates Russia for what they've done.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No matter how you slice it Russia will have severely restricted access to cutting edge technology; heck, to any modern tech. China won’t help much for a host of reasons.
This alone is a great danger to economy.
I don’t know how the war will pan out but i am sad for this great country’s future! I can’t hate Russia because there’s too much good in it - not its leadership alas - but it’s all in jeopardy now.

Show evidence that China won’t help.

That's not what they do.

And 35 years ago the Chinese didn’t make any world-class consumer goods. Now they make many of them. Don’t count on the Chinese behaving to the US’s benefit.

They still don't make world-class consumer goods. They make mediocre consumer goods, but they do it cheaply, so they get sales. Not to mention, most of their technology was stolen from other countries via patent infringement and industrial espionage.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No matter how you slice it Russia will have severely restricted access to cutting edge technology; heck, to any modern tech. China won’t help much for a host of reasons.
This alone is a great danger to economy.
I don’t know how the war will pan out but i am sad for this great country’s future! I can’t hate Russia because there’s too much good in it - not its leadership alas - but it’s all in jeopardy now.

Show evidence that China won’t help.

That's not what they do.

And 35 years ago the Chinese didn’t make any world-class consumer goods. Now they make many of them. Don’t count on the Chinese behaving to the US’s benefit.

The only benefit they care about is their own. They won’t help unless there is a very compelling reason and very low risk of secondary sanctions

Don’t be surprised if thinking of their own benefit puts them at odds with the US. And don’t forget they are very capable.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No matter how you slice it Russia will have severely restricted access to cutting edge technology; heck, to any modern tech. China won’t help much for a host of reasons.
This alone is a great danger to economy.
I don’t know how the war will pan out but i am sad for this great country’s future! I can’t hate Russia because there’s too much good in it - not its leadership alas - but it’s all in jeopardy now.

Show evidence that China won’t help.

That's not what they do.

And 35 years ago the Chinese didn’t make any world-class consumer goods. Now they make many of them. Don’t count on the Chinese behaving to the US’s benefit.

They still don't make world-class consumer goods. They make mediocre consumer goods, but they do it cheaply, so they get sales. Not to mention, most of their technology was stolen from other countries via patent infringement and industrial espionage.

Wow, talk about underestimating a potential adversary! And doing it with the lamest cliches.

[Anonymous]

Biden Harris are winning!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No matter how you slice it Russia will have severely restricted access to cutting edge technology; heck, to any modern tech. China won’t help much for a host of reasons.
This alone is a great danger to economy.
I don’t know how the war will pan out but i am sad for this great country’s future! I can’t hate Russia because there’s too much good in it - not its leadership alas - but it’s all in jeopardy now.

Show evidence that China won’t help.

That's not what they do.

And 35 years ago the Chinese didn’t make any world-class consumer goods. Now they make many of them. Don’t count on the Chinese behaving to the US’s benefit.

They still don't make world-class consumer goods. They make mediocre consumer goods, but they do it cheaply, so they get sales. Not to mention, most of their technology was stolen from other countries via patent infringement and industrial espionage.

The own via equity investments half the private life sciences companies and iP in the U.S.

Same with metals, mining and agr in Africa.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No matter how you slice it Russia will have severely restricted access to cutting edge technology; heck, to any modern tech. China won’t help much for a host of reasons.
This alone is a great danger to economy.
I don’t know how the war will pan out but i am sad for this great country’s future! I can’t hate Russia because there’s too much good in it - not its leadership alas - but it’s all in jeopardy now.

Show evidence that China won’t help.

That's not what they do.

And 35 years ago the Chinese didn’t make any world-class consumer goods. Now they make many of them. Don’t count on the Chinese behaving to the US’s benefit.

They still don't make world-class consumer goods. They make mediocre consumer goods, but they do it cheaply, so they get sales. Not to mention, most of their technology was stolen from other countries via patent infringement and industrial espionage.

The own via equity investments half the private life sciences companies and iP in the U.S.

Same with metals, mining and agr in Africa.

This. The Chinese are much closer to outflanking the braindead clique that runs US NatSec. We really should be re-evaluating our positions. Unfortunately we seem intent on pushing our luck.