Official Government Shutdown 2023 Thread

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Do Conngresscritters still get paid during shutdowns?

Last time they did because their appropriations bill was enacted, this time they would not since none of the 12 appropriations bills have been enacted.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:An issue is that so many of us are dual feds. We would be okay with one paycheck, but zero paychecks? It would mean selling stocks and pulling money from long term investments since that's where our savings are parked. But we'd be fine. (Versus 10+ years ago when I was a GS 7, unmarried and had no savings yet)

Kinda surprised you don't have an emergency fund. Like not even three months worth of cash in case there is an issue?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What happens to FEHB and FEGLI if we miss a paycheck? To they wait until we get paid, or do we have to go out of pocket for our share of premiums?

Your premiums will get paid later when the lapse ends and you get your back pay, you don’t go out of pocket and your coverage continues.

And if the shutdown lasts a long time, that back pay check is big and taxed at a higher rate!

What? Marginal tax rates are based on AGI, and withholding is based on annual comp, not what you make in each check. If that were true, companies could lower taxes for their employees by going to biweekly pay.

I swear in 2013 I had more taxes taken out of my check.

Don't know how the government payroll systems work, but I know that ADP for instance calculates withholding by extrapolating annual pay from per check regular hours. I can tell you this from recent experience (on the processing payroll end, not the receiving it). So you would have higher withholding - not higher taxes owed, but more withholding if it was that automated.

[Anonymous]

Wait, didn’t they reach a resolution?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Do Conngresscritters still get paid during shutdowns?

Apparently not this time. But members of Congress are all millionaires. I hope their staff walk out though.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Washington Post just published an article with a new plan by Republicans. Does this change the odds of a shutdown to be less likely?

That’s going nowhere quickly.

+1. Let me see if I have this right. It took 5 factions of the Republican Party 4 days to negotiate an agreement THAT LEFT KEVIN McCARTHY COMPLETELY IN THE DARK, cuts everything not related to defense 8%— in exchange for a one month CR, after which they will go for 8% more. And, it’s still not clear they can get it to the floor, let alone pass it. And if they do, the entire Senate— even Mitch McConnell— is going to laugh in their faces.

Putting aside the reality of government spending, which is fixed costs that can’t be cut that much that fast. Lease payments are due. RIFs take time. Etc.

And they are proud because they have a plan. A bad, workable and likely impossible plan without the support of the House leader. But something that might or might not make it to the floor and that will put the Republicans in Biden districts in a terrible position if it does.

f**k. This shutdown is going to last forever.

The compromise position should be that everyone agrees that there should be an 8% decrease in federal outlays to any state where representatives are voting to hold up appropriations bills. Obviously these people believe that we need to cut back on federal spending and they should be willing to cut back the federal spending to their districts and states showing their good intentions.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Washington Post just published an article with a new plan by Republicans. Does this change the odds of a shutdown to be less likely?

That’s going nowhere quickly.

+1. Let me see if I have this right. It took 5 factions of the Republican Party 4 days to negotiate an agreement THAT LEFT KEVIN McCARTHY COMPLETELY IN THE DARK, cuts everything not related to defense 8%— in exchange for a one month CR, after which they will go for 8% more. And, it’s still not clear they can get it to the floor, let alone pass it. And if they do, the entire Senate— even Mitch McConnell— is going to laugh in their faces.

Putting aside the reality of government spending, which is fixed costs that can’t be cut that much that fast. Lease payments are due. RIFs take time. Etc.

And they are proud because they have a plan. A bad, workable and likely impossible plan without the support of the House leader. But something that might or might not make it to the floor and that will put the Republicans in Biden districts in a terrible position if it does.

f**k. This shutdown is going to last forever.

The compromise position should be that everyone agrees that there should be an 8% decrease in federal outlays to any state where representatives are voting to hold up appropriations bills. Obviously these people believe that we need to cut back on federal spending and they should be willing to cut back the federal spending to their districts and states showing their good intentions.

Totally cool, and I'll agree to that just as soon as you start writing checks to the federal government for all the additional social programs that you support.

I'll wait.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is shutdown related, but not job related. Will White House tours, Capitol tours, etc continue through September, and then stop 10/1 if there's a shutdown? Or will they stop earlier?

They should not stop until the shutdown stops. It’s a very drop everything you are doing at the stroke of midnight situation. You get 4 hours for orderly shutdown. Which cannot be substantive work. It’s purely out of office replies on emails and phones. It takes 15 minutes, although we used to hang out and make gallows humor jokes for the 4 authorized hrs because we knew we’d at least get paid for that time. Now, we get paid anyway, so orderly shutdown is very short.

Which is what makes near misses so annoying. Congress pats itself on the back for narrowly avoiding a shutdown. But, no one sees how much time gets wasted preparing for the near misses. Whether the shutdown happen or not, you have to get your workload into position to be abandoned for a day, or week or more than a month with the least damage possible. In my case, it’s who is literally going to die if we don’t get this signed and out with a date before 10/1, and who will just live without cancer treatment for a while. It’s stressful and demoralizing. And I’m not the once who isn’t able to access life saving medical care.

Thank you for sharing. That is horrible. These stories should be in the press.

They are. But the fact “essential services” has been broadly defined in the past means the general public doesn’t see the real, human cost of shutdowns. And gets to continue the “see we can fire the whole federal workforce because they do nothing” rhetoric. Which is also demoralizing.

Here the armed services bill hasn’t passed which is unusual. But Quevin can’t even get that to the floor, so we will also have an unpaid military. And the lower ranks with families are near the poverty level to begin with. It’s crappy all around.

Just once, I wish a President had the stones to say “essential” means you are guarding nuclear weapons or staffing the ICU at the VA and everyone else goes home. No postal delivery. 1 ATC per airport for life flights and similar. So social security checks processed. The government actually stops.

Three things would happen: MAGA would learn that the government actually does something. The shutdown would last less than a day. And we would get legislation saying that if there is a lapse in appropriations, there is an automatic CR. So, it would be the last shutdown.

Agree, but isn't USPS self-funded, with no direct taxpayer funding?

IDK. At a minimum, they run a deficit someone is financing. And I believe their pension plan is underwater. But Air Traffic Control, TSA, etc sure aren’t. The public will never respect feds until they understand the depth and breadth of what we do.

I’ve watched these come and go. And this scares me more than the 2019 Trump shutdown (by a hair). Because this isn’t Ted Cruz vs Obama on the ACA. That shutdown had rational actors with actual demands. They waited until the polling showed who “won” and it ended. The shutdown had an expiration date, and that was when the polling got bad enough that Ted Cruz (who wanted to be POTUS and cared about polling) stopped his temper tantrum.

The Trump shutdown had Trump. Who had a veto and was not rational. It took an ATC sickout and airports closing to end it. But the Republicans had some control over Trump. The question was at what point McConnell would raise his voice.

This shutdown does not have rational actors. The Senate— up to McConnell and Biden have a plan. It should be an easy CR and finish the appropriations bills along the lines decided under the debt ceiling deal. The Senate has already passed their bills. This is the Freedom caucus wing vs there own party. And their plan isnt to leverage a shutdown for a policy, like the ACA or the border wall. Their “plan” to burn it all down and see what’s left. They aren’t even passing the military funding bill that they say they support and want to vote for. Because it gets in the way of burning it all down.

We re-watched The Dark Knight this weekend and it reminds of of Heath Ledger’s Joker— the chaos isn’t a side effect of standing up for some strongly held position that can be debated and negotiated. Which makes this different and more dangerous than any prior shutdown. The chaos is the point. There is nothing to negotiate, because the FC is getting what it wants already— a long shutdown and chaos. I don’t think military families at food pantries or airport shutdowns after ATC/TSA sickouts bother them. I think it’s what they want. To prove some point I don’t fully understand.

We are moving money in case it’s the three month shutdown the FC wants. I hope I’m wrong. But DH and I are viewing this as a plan for the worst/pray for the best situation. We are another family paying college tuition. We can’t afford not to be liquid in December if this drags on.

I’ve been in different Fed positions since 2002. IMO, this is by far the worst situation I’ve seen. Trump 2019 was second, because eventually the Rs would force him to stop it to stop the bleeding and give him a fig leaf on The Wall. (And my agency was funded, so I was less personally affected).

Right now, the House can’t even get MILITARY FUNDING to the floor to start debate— even something with a poison pill like a six week abortion ban. They can’t even get it up for discussion. Let alone actually passing something. And the Senate and Biden would reject anything they could pass. And mind you, no one from either party is against funding the military. It’s like Tuberville’s hold on military promotions. Everyone thinks having 2-3 of the joint chief of staff until is terrible and everyone would vote for these to be filled. Except the non-rational actor holding promotions hostage. Because abortion. Not rational. Dangerous. But not stopping anytime soon.

Non-rational actors control the length of the shutdown. Hunker down, liquify assists and get your side gig cleared while you can. I hope I’m wrong.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Washington Post just published an article with a new plan by Republicans. Does this change the odds of a shutdown to be less likely?

That’s going nowhere quickly.

+1. Let me see if I have this right. It took 5 factions of the Republican Party 4 days to negotiate an agreement THAT LEFT KEVIN McCARTHY COMPLETELY IN THE DARK, cuts everything not related to defense 8%— in exchange for a one month CR, after which they will go for 8% more. And, it’s still not clear they can get it to the floor, let alone pass it. And if they do, the entire Senate— even Mitch McConnell— is going to laugh in their faces.

Putting aside the reality of government spending, which is fixed costs that can’t be cut that much that fast. Lease payments are due. RIFs take time. Etc.

And they are proud because they have a plan. A bad, workable and likely impossible plan without the support of the House leader. But something that might or might not make it to the floor and that will put the Republicans in Biden districts in a terrible position if it does.

f**k. This shutdown is going to last forever.

The compromise position should be that everyone agrees that there should be an 8% decrease in federal outlays to any state where representatives are voting to hold up appropriations bills. Obviously these people believe that we need to cut back on federal spending and they should be willing to cut back the federal spending to their districts and states showing their good intentions.

The problem with this plan (besides the fact they didn’t run it by McCarthy, which means he’s out soon) is two fold. One, the vulnerable moderates in Biden districts can’t vote for this. So it can’t pass the House. And it’s DOA in the Senate. And two, it makes no logical sense. Cutting an agency budget by 8% over a year would be painful but possible. Doing so immediately, for an average of 8% saving in one month? Agencies have too many fixed costs. Rent still has to be paid. Employees have to be paid. RIFs take time. Money is already allocated. They literally can’t cut that much that fast. Especially since the CR is only until 10/31. And on 10/31 it will be a CR until 11/31 with another 8%.

Plus, it looks like they can’t even get that to the floor.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Wait, didn’t they reach a resolution?

Not one they can get to the floor of the House to debate. Let alone pass. And if they did, the Senate wouldn’t vote for it and Biden wouldn’t sign it. Because the ask— 8% cut of the month of October is impossible leases. Plus, it’s on a one month CR. We’d just be right here in 30 days.

So no, not resolved.

Interesting that Kevin McCarthy was left out of this “deal” altogether. That doesn’t bode well for him.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:An issue is that so many of us are dual feds. We would be okay with one paycheck, but zero paychecks? It would mean selling stocks and pulling money from long term investments since that's where our savings are parked. But we'd be fine. (Versus 10+ years ago when I was a GS 7, unmarried and had no savings yet)

Kinda surprised you don't have an emergency fund. Like not even three months worth of cash in case there is an issue?

Now is probably not the time to pile on. Lots of reasons people don’t have emergency funds. In fact, the vast majority of Americans are one emergency away from not paying rent.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Streaming to freak out a little. If they shut down how long do you all think it will be?

A quarter.

This.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Washington Post just published an article with a new plan by Republicans. Does this change the odds of a shutdown to be less likely?

That’s going nowhere quickly.

+1. Let me see if I have this right. It took 5 factions of the Republican Party 4 days to negotiate an agreement THAT LEFT KEVIN McCARTHY COMPLETELY IN THE DARK, cuts everything not related to defense 8%— in exchange for a one month CR, after which they will go for 8% more. And, it’s still not clear they can get it to the floor, let alone pass it. And if they do, the entire Senate— even Mitch McConnell— is going to laugh in their faces.

Putting aside the reality of government spending, which is fixed costs that can’t be cut that much that fast. Lease payments are due. RIFs take time. Etc.

And they are proud because they have a plan. A bad, workable and likely impossible plan without the support of the House leader. But something that might or might not make it to the floor and that will put the Republicans in Biden districts in a terrible position if it does.

f**k. This shutdown is going to last forever.

The compromise position should be that everyone agrees that there should be an 8% decrease in federal outlays to any state where representatives are voting to hold up appropriations bills. Obviously these people believe that we need to cut back on federal spending and they should be willing to cut back the federal spending to their districts and states showing their good intentions.

Totally cool, and I'll agree to that just as soon as you start writing checks to the federal government for all the additional social programs that you support.

I'll wait.

And this is a debate worth having. But, it could be had during a CR. I assume you want the military to take the hit too? Because the Freedom Wackos are holding those appropriations hostage as well.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is shutdown related, but not job related. Will White House tours, Capitol tours, etc continue through September, and then stop 10/1 if there's a shutdown? Or will they stop earlier?

They should not stop until the shutdown stops. It’s a very drop everything you are doing at the stroke of midnight situation. You get 4 hours for orderly shutdown. Which cannot be substantive work. It’s purely out of office replies on emails and phones. It takes 15 minutes, although we used to hang out and make gallows humor jokes for the 4 authorized hrs because we knew we’d at least get paid for that time. Now, we get paid anyway, so orderly shutdown is very short.

Which is what makes near misses so annoying. Congress pats itself on the back for narrowly avoiding a shutdown. But, no one sees how much time gets wasted preparing for the near misses. Whether the shutdown happen or not, you have to get your workload into position to be abandoned for a day, or week or more than a month with the least damage possible. In my case, it’s who is literally going to die if we don’t get this signed and out with a date before 10/1, and who will just live without cancer treatment for a while. It’s stressful and demoralizing. And I’m not the once who isn’t able to access life saving medical care.

Thank you for sharing. That is horrible. These stories should be in the press.

They are. But the fact “essential services” has been broadly defined in the past means the general public doesn’t see the real, human cost of shutdowns. And gets to continue the “see we can fire the whole federal workforce because they do nothing” rhetoric. Which is also demoralizing.

Here the armed services bill hasn’t passed which is unusual. But Quevin can’t even get that to the floor, so we will also have an unpaid military. And the lower ranks with families are near the poverty level to begin with. It’s crappy all around.

Just once, I wish a President had the stones to say “essential” means you are guarding nuclear weapons or staffing the ICU at the VA and everyone else goes home. No postal delivery. 1 ATC per airport for life flights and similar. So social security checks processed. The government actually stops.

Three things would happen: MAGA would learn that the government actually does something. The shutdown would last less than a day. And we would get legislation saying that if there is a lapse in appropriations, there is an automatic CR. So, it would be the last shutdown.

Agree, but isn't USPS self-funded, with no direct taxpayer funding?

IDK. At a minimum, they run a deficit someone is financing. And I believe their pension plan is underwater. But Air Traffic Control, TSA, etc sure aren’t. The public will never respect feds until they understand the depth and breadth of what we do.

I’ve watched these come and go. And this scares me more than the 2019 Trump shutdown (by a hair). Because this isn’t Ted Cruz vs Obama on the ACA. That shutdown had rational actors with actual demands. They waited until the polling showed who “won” and it ended. The shutdown had an expiration date, and that was when the polling got bad enough that Ted Cruz (who wanted to be POTUS and cared about polling) stopped his temper tantrum.

The Trump shutdown had Trump. Who had a veto and was not rational. It took an ATC sickout and airports closing to end it. But the Republicans had some control over Trump. The question was at what point McConnell would raise his voice.

This shutdown does not have rational actors. The Senate— up to McConnell and Biden have a plan. It should be an easy CR and finish the appropriations bills along the lines decided under the debt ceiling deal. The Senate has already passed their bills. This is the Freedom caucus wing vs there own party. And their plan isnt to leverage a shutdown for a policy, like the ACA or the border wall. Their “plan” to burn it all down and see what’s left. They aren’t even passing the military funding bill that they say they support and want to vote for. Because it gets in the way of burning it all down.

We re-watched The Dark Knight this weekend and it reminds of of Heath Ledger’s Joker— the chaos isn’t a side effect of standing up for some strongly held position that can be debated and negotiated. Which makes this different and more dangerous than any prior shutdown. The chaos is the point. There is nothing to negotiate, because the FC is getting what it wants already— a long shutdown and chaos. I don’t think military families at food pantries or airport shutdowns after ATC/TSA sickouts bother them. I think it’s what they want. To prove some point I don’t fully understand.

We are moving money in case it’s the three month shutdown the FC wants. I hope I’m wrong. But DH and I are viewing this as a plan for the worst/pray for the best situation. We are another family paying college tuition. We can’t afford not to be liquid in December if this drags on.

I’ve been in different Fed positions since 2002. IMO, this is by far the worst situation I’ve seen. Trump 2019 was second, because eventually the Rs would force him to stop it to stop the bleeding and give him a fig leaf on The Wall. (And my agency was funded, so I was less personally affected).

Right now, the House can’t even get MILITARY FUNDING to the floor to start debate— even something with a poison pill like a six week abortion ban. They can’t even get it up for discussion. Let alone actually passing something. And the Senate and Biden would reject anything they could pass. And mind you, no one from either party is against funding the military. It’s like Tuberville’s hold on military promotions. Everyone thinks having 2-3 of the joint chief of staff until is terrible and everyone would vote for these to be filled. Except the non-rational actor holding promotions hostage. Because abortion. Not rational. Dangerous. But not stopping anytime soon.

Non-rational actors control the length of the shutdown. Hunker down, liquify assists and get your side gig cleared while you can. I hope I’m wrong.

wowowowowwowwwww

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Streaming to freak out a little. If they shut down how long do you all think it will be?

A quarter.

This.

That would be absolutely devastating. During past shutdowns some employees can’t even make it 2 weeks without a paycheck.