Fierce competition for Fall 2021 admissions, if lots of current seniors defer?

[Anonymous]

Emory is allowing all students who defer the option to do so.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Who is getting grade inflation? I have a sophomore in FCPS. Some of her teachers say they grade on a trend, others say they do standards based grading, and only two do a straight average. Her grades are lower than they would have been if she had actually had a fourth quarter. The fourth quarter is always the highest.

The B+ and B students are getting the grade inflation. At FCPS, you get one letter bump in the 4th quarter. It is not fair to the A students.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Who is getting grade inflation? I have a sophomore in FCPS. Some of her teachers say they grade on a trend, others say they do standards based grading, and only two do a straight average. Her grades are lower than they would have been if she had actually had a fourth quarter. The fourth quarter is always the highest.

The B+ and B students are getting the grade inflation. At FCPS, you get one letter bump in the 4th quarter. It is not fair to the A students.

+1

Exactly this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I agree that colleges are in crisis-management mode and being "fair" to the next class of applicants is probably low priority. As the parent of a junior, I am certainly anxious about how it will play out. But a lot can happen in a year, and most of it is out of my or my kid's control. All we can do is keep on looking at schools that might be a good fit (and maybe broaden the list a bit just in case). Freaking out is not a good strategy.

You are correct. Filling the seats is a high priority. Which is why there will only be so many deferrals and transfers. What about this don't you get?

They will fill the seats from the wait list, and all the kids who defer will take freshman places next year. What about this don’t you get?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Emory is allowing all students who defer the option to do so.

Meaning anyone who requests a deferral will get one?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:Save your money folks. With more deferments than usual and no international students to fill the coffers, full pay is going to be more and more important.

This.

Agree. It’s all about revenue. I think the colleges are allowing what will be a higher % of 2020 scholarship students to defer and admitting full pay (and OOS for publics) off the waitlist to fill those spots and fill in for the missing international students. The 2021 scholarship students will be screwed. Full pay may be advantaged in 2021, especially if the international students aren’t back.

Maybe. But there will be no fewer slots for the rightful Class of 2021 - there will be fewer slots for deferrals and transfers, as always.

That may or may not be true. However, I do think that a college that is taking a financial hit would be happy to let a scholarship student defer if they can replace them with a full-pay student for this fall. It's not clear what happens to scholarships for those who choose to defer, but I'm pretty sure some number of kids who defer never show up at all.

Let’s just say the colleges bank on the deferrals not showing up and leave it at that because y’all are dense.

Apparently you're too dense to explain what you really mean, but the point is that the colleges are just focusing on filling the class of 2020 with as many full-pay students as possible and aren't really worrying too much about 2021. If they can defer a scholarship student and replace them with a full pay student, great. Who knows what the situation with COVID/the economy/international students will be then? Some of the deferred kids may never come, many of them may. They'll just cross that bridge when they come to it. It could be a massive cluster**** and totally screw the 2021 grads, but they don't care about that. They just care about keeping the $$ coming in now.

Look, colleges are A-1 in the area of damage control. Those seats will be filled, and there will not be nearly as many deferrals as some of the PP's think there will be.

There doesn’t have to be. The number of spots for non-athlete, non-legacy, non-hooked kids is so small at highly rated colleges to begin with. The kids that defer aren’t going to cut into the number of athletes they recruit. The real variable here is international students. If they stay away, it will be fine for the US applicants. If they come back in 2021 (or 2022...) in large numbers, then those kids are screwed. But the colleges don’t care about that. They just care about filling seats and collecting tuition.

I also wonder if they’re thinking that a they might be more able to manage reopening if they have fewer students. It would make “social distancing” in the dorms and classes easier.

I’m not freaking out about this, but I am frustrated and sad, because, after thinking about it, I realized that colleges have no incentive to try to be fair to the class of 2021 and those that follow. It’s also annoying to hear the complaints of the parents of the class of 2020. Those students had a normal college application process, and now have all kinds of options. They may not have a “normal” freshman year, but I don’t think such a thing will exist for quite some time. At least until after our kids are out of college.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I agree that colleges are in crisis-management mode and being "fair" to the next class of applicants is probably low priority. As the parent of a junior, I am certainly anxious about how it will play out. But a lot can happen in a year, and most of it is out of my or my kid's control. All we can do is keep on looking at schools that might be a good fit (and maybe broaden the list a bit just in case). Freaking out is not a good strategy.

You are correct. Filling the seats is a high priority. Which is why there will only be so many deferrals and transfers. What about this don't you get?

They will fill the seats from the wait list, and all the kids who defer will take freshman places next year. What about this don’t you get?

Your math does not work. Your imagination hinges on a fallacy that 2020 class has the capacity and $$$ to supply above 100% of its normal number. Where are the magical kids and money?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I agree that colleges are in crisis-management mode and being "fair" to the next class of applicants is probably low priority. As the parent of a junior, I am certainly anxious about how it will play out. But a lot can happen in a year, and most of it is out of my or my kid's control. All we can do is keep on looking at schools that might be a good fit (and maybe broaden the list a bit just in case). Freaking out is not a good strategy.

You are correct. Filling the seats is a high priority. Which is why there will only be so many deferrals and transfers. What about this don't you get?

They will fill the seats from the wait list, and all the kids who defer will take freshman places next year. What about this don’t you get?

Your math does not work. Your imagination hinges on a fallacy that 2020 class has the capacity and $$$ to supply above 100% of its normal number. Where are the magical kids and money?

At lower ranked schools. It's top 10 schools that these ladies are worrying about.

[Anonymous]

Not for every college, but for the ones in most demand. There are plenty of full-pay or nearly full-pay kids who will gladly take a spot off the wait list at any top 20 school. (See the excited threads here about wait lists moving and kids getting in to their dream schools.) They will replace the kids who defer from the freshman class and will want to claim a place in the freshman class next year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Emory is allowing all students who defer the option to do so.

Meaning anyone who requests a deferral will get one?

Emory has said that it never placed a numerical limit on deferrals given and doesn't plan to change this policy this year. They also said that they want for students to know the plan for the fall before the new deferral request deadline. Class act, IMO.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Who is getting grade inflation? I have a sophomore in FCPS. Some of her teachers say they grade on a trend, others say they do standards based grading, and only two do a straight average. Her grades are lower than they would have been if she had actually had a fourth quarter. The fourth quarter is always the highest.

The B+ and B students are getting the grade inflation. At FCPS, you get one letter bump in the 4th quarter. It is not fair to the A students.

+1

Exactly this.

DCPS is essentially giving an A to every student for quarters 3 and 4. All the work is being considered as extra credit. My kid received 300% in all classes for quarter 3 and already has 150%+ for quarter 4, having only done 4 assignments. It's a complete joke and it's the entire school district.

[Anonymous]

What are the deferral students doing for a year? Mine thought about it but every option we could come up with could not compete with matriculating as imperfect as it will be.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Not for every college, but for the ones in most demand. There are plenty of full-pay or nearly full-pay kids who will gladly take a spot off the wait list at any top 20 school. (See the excited threads here about wait lists moving and kids getting in to their dream schools.) They will replace the kids who defer from the freshman class and will want to claim a place in the freshman class next year.

Top 20 schools face the same financial hardship as everyone else. The number of qualified full-pay kids will only get smaller given the economic downturn. Even if we assume that there will always be enough full-pay kids for top 20 schools every year, there is no logical reason for top 20 schools to lower their standards and let in 120% of 2020 kids. They will have enough full-pay kids from 2021 too. Why would they provide a worse experience for year 2021 filling the schools with 2020 kids? High-stats 2021 kids would turn to top publics for a better experience.

[Anonymous]

Any insight on deferral availability in state schools?

UMD-CP?
UVA?
Virginia Tech?
Michigan?
UC system?
Etc

Thanks!

[Anonymous]

The bottom line questions seem to be (1) are more students actually deferring this year than is typical, and (2) if so, will highly selective colleges limit deferments. While we are all speculating, and plenty of 2020 kids are considering their options, I don't think we've seen any good data yet on these questions.

Internationals may be the bigger concern with deferments, as those admitted may have no choice due to the visa process, but even for those, there is a lack of clarity.

There have been a few surveys, though the more significant problem with 2020 kids not attending may be more permanent than a selective college deferment - not attending at all or choosing an in-state public university due to financial considerations - rather than the reluctance to have an online first semester experience vs in person. E.g. https://www.insidehighered.com/admissions/article/2020/04/29/colleges-could-lose-20-percent-students-analysis-says