Who will win today's Ward 3 Election?

[Anonymous]

Give the PP a dollar for correctly assessing the situation.

Silverman was late to the party. The writing was on the wall (and scuttlebutt on the ground) for a couple of weeks before she arrived on the scene.

And if indeed this is what happened (you can ignore the “if”…), then Frumin has Duncan and her team
to thank for his win. They not only swung their support to him, but they got everyone else to also in order to make it more impactful.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Give the PP a dollar for correctly assessing the situation.

Silverman was late to the party. The writing was on the wall (and scuttlebutt on the ground) for a couple of weeks before she arrived on the scene.

And if indeed this is what happened (you can ignore the “if”…), then Frumin has Duncan and her team
to thank for his win. They not only swung their support to him, but they got everyone else to also in order to make it more impactful.

The Duncan people didn't half-ass it. They went all-in on Frumin. Tricia went to Key School -- the epicenter of her support -- with Matt and walked him around and introduced him to voters.

From what I heard, the polling showed something like 25% undecided. It was those voters who were most persuaded by Tricia's endorsement -- and the negative attacks on Goulet's dark money.

The first batch of votes released, which reflected early voting, showed 31% for Frumin, 34% for Goulet, 9% for Duncan. Second batch was 47% Frumin, 27% Goulet and 2% Duncan. That's a 23-point swing for Frumin. Duncan's support only dropped by 7 points. Even if all of Duncan's supporters moved to Frumin that's only a small fraction of the swing.

[Anonymous]

In any ward other than Ward 3 DFER's plan probably would have worked.

[Anonymous]

I don't get the "negative attacks on Goulet's dark money"

They weren't attacks. They were what Goulet had courted and accepted on behalf of DFER.

Truth matters and facts matter.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:In any ward other than Ward 3 DFER's plan probably would have worked.

Actaully, Ward 3 is the only place where DFER could really operate. They supported the Mayor and Mendelson, who have their bases in upper NW. That everyone else came together to defeat DFER is really the story.

[Anonymous]

It’s ironic is it not that Silverman got Frumin elected by convincing others to dropout when Frumin himself refused to drop out at Silverman’s request 9 years ago and probably cost Silverman that particular election. Politics indeed makes for strange bedfellows!

[jsteele]

Anonymous wrote:It’s ironic is it not that Silverman got Frumin elected by convincing others to dropout when Frumin himself refused to drop out at Silverman’s request 9 years ago and probably cost Silverman that particular election. Politics indeed makes for strange bedfellows!

I will grant you that there is some irony, but Frumin didn't get enough votes in that election to make up Silverman's margin of defeat. You can't blame that one on him.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't get the "negative attacks on Goulet's dark money"

They weren't attacks. They were what Goulet had courted and accepted on behalf of DFER.

Truth matters and facts matter.

As the PP you're responding to, I accept your rephrasing as a friendly amendment.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:In any ward other than Ward 3 DFER's plan probably would have worked.

If it weren't for those meddling kids!

[Anonymous]

I'm unclear what DFER even wanted in Ward 3 specifically. There are no charter schools here! I'm not sure why there aren't, but they just aren't here!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm unclear what DFER even wanted in Ward 3 specifically. There are no charter schools here! I'm not sure why there aren't, but they just aren't here!

They wanted a bought councilmember who would support their agenda.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:case in point

as someone said in this twitter thread, Ward 3 really dodged a bullet.

Wow, that was ... not cool.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm unclear what DFER even wanted in Ward 3 specifically. There are no charter schools here! I'm not sure why there aren't, but they just aren't here!

They wanted a bought councilmember who would support their agenda.

Yep. It doesn't matter which ward they represent, all councilmembers have the same vote on the council.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm unclear what DFER even wanted in Ward 3 specifically. There are no charter schools here! I'm not sure why there aren't, but they just aren't here!

They wanted a bought councilmember who would support their agenda.

Yep. It doesn't matter which ward they represent, all councilmembers have the same vote on the council.

They also supported Mendelson and Bowser. Do you consider them “bought” council members?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm unclear what DFER even wanted in Ward 3 specifically. There are no charter schools here! I'm not sure why there aren't, but they just aren't here!

They wanted a bought councilmember who would support their agenda.

Yep. It doesn't matter which ward they represent, all councilmembers have the same vote on the council.

They also supported Mendelson and Bowser. Do you consider them “bought” council members?

I do.

But it's a little different, they were going to win anyway, the dark money just saved them the effort of fundraising (and media buying, that's a pain in the ass). On the other hand Goulet's candidacy wouldn't have existed at all without dark money.