Who will win today's Ward 3 Election?

[Anonymous]

Silverman used taxpayer-provided funds to conduct a poll that she then improperly shared with candidates to get them to drop out of the Council race. Silverman used to be a reporter, so she knows very well how seriously wrong this is.

[Anonymous]

OK, I took the fundraising dollars from the DC Geekery link above, divided by the vote totals, to get dollars per vote for every candidate.

Overall, the candidates got $1,143,790 and 16,496 votes were cast, which comes to $69.34 per vote.

Frumin raised $229,157 and got 6,850 votes, a rate of $33.45 per vote, the lowest in the race. (Except for Cohen, who got 165 votes and pledged to spend less than $500, or $3 per vote.)

The highest was Monash, who raised $163,735 and got 750 votes, a staggering $218.3 per vote. This is particularly noteworthy when you consider Duncan and Bergmann both raised significant amounts -- $140,913 and $116,519 -- but dropped out before election day. They came in at $164.43 and $168.14 per vote.

Goulet raised $173,205 and got 5,044 votes, or $34.34 per vote. If you add in the estimated $400K in dark money he got it comes to $113.64 per vote.

Rounding out the field:
Finley
$110,685
840
$131.77

Thomas
$132,425
1,002
$132.16


Brown
$77,151
460
$167.72

Adding Goulet's dark money brings the total to $1,543,790 and the average to $93.59.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Post your candidate on who you will think will win and why.

I'll start.

Candidate: Matt Frumin
Why:
https://dcgeekery.com/dc-campaign-finance/2022/council-ward-3
Based on the above link, Matt had the most donations to his campaign. So even before Tricia, Ben and Henry dropped out, I thought he had the edge to win.
Eric came on late with donations, but his donations are all over the city, while Matt has many more Ward 3 donations.

But now that Tricia, Ben and Henry dropped out and supported Matt, I predict he should win.

Would love to read everyone's predictions and the whys

AS the OP looks like I was correct....and based on the current DCBOE website, Frumin might have won outright.
He currently has 7,142
While Goulet has 5,202

Let's keep in mind something:
Beau got 869 votes
I think Ben would have gotten slightly more votes than Beau
Henry vote count was probably a non factor
Tricia is the one where her vote count would have been significant.
Phil Thomas got 1000 votes so one could argue that Ben would have gotten that amount.

5202 votes. Between the money he raised, the DC Fair Elections money, the dark money, probably at least $500K and perhaps $600K was spent on Goulet's campaign. That's $100 to $120 per vote. For a DC Council seat.

Incredible that you cannot stop talking about it. You are seriously obsessed. The rest of the world has moved on.

And yet, you keep coming back here.

Let’s see, you keep attacking a candidate who lost an election a week ago. I keep point out how classless that is. You keep the classless posts and I will keep pointing them out as such.

No one's attacking you, Eric. You need to take a break from online interaction.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Silverman used taxpayer-provided funds to conduct a poll that she then improperly shared with candidates to get them to drop out of the Council race. Silverman used to be a reporter, so she knows very well how seriously wrong this is.

Someone's bitter.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Post your candidate on who you will think will win and why.

I'll start.

Candidate: Matt Frumin
Why:
https://dcgeekery.com/dc-campaign-finance/2022/council-ward-3
Based on the above link, Matt had the most donations to his campaign. So even before Tricia, Ben and Henry dropped out, I thought he had the edge to win.
Eric came on late with donations, but his donations are all over the city, while Matt has many more Ward 3 donations.

But now that Tricia, Ben and Henry dropped out and supported Matt, I predict he should win.

Would love to read everyone's predictions and the whys

AS the OP looks like I was correct....and based on the current DCBOE website, Frumin might have won outright.
He currently has 7,142
While Goulet has 5,202

Let's keep in mind something:
Beau got 869 votes
I think Ben would have gotten slightly more votes than Beau
Henry vote count was probably a non factor
Tricia is the one where her vote count would have been significant.
Phil Thomas got 1000 votes so one could argue that Ben would have gotten that amount.

5202 votes. Between the money he raised, the DC Fair Elections money, the dark money, probably at least $500K and perhaps $600K was spent on Goulet's campaign. That's $100 to $120 per vote. For a DC Council seat.

Incredible that you cannot stop talking about it. You are seriously obsessed. The rest of the world has moved on.

And yet, you keep coming back here.

Let’s see, you keep attacking a candidate who lost an election a week ago. I keep point out how classless that is. You keep the classless posts and I will keep pointing them out as such.

No one's attacking you, Eric. You need to take a break from online interaction.

I am the PP and my name is not Eric. I am just pointing out that there is something very wrong with you. Grow up and get a life.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OK, I took the fundraising dollars from the DC Geekery link above, divided by the vote totals, to get dollars per vote for every candidate.

Overall, the candidates got $1,143,790 and 16,496 votes were cast, which comes to $69.34 per vote.

Frumin raised $229,157 and got 6,850 votes, a rate of $33.45 per vote, the lowest in the race. (Except for Cohen, who got 165 votes and pledged to spend less than $500, or $3 per vote.)

The highest was Monash, who raised $163,735 and got 750 votes, a staggering $218.3 per vote. This is particularly noteworthy when you consider Duncan and Bergmann both raised significant amounts -- $140,913 and $116,519 -- but dropped out before election day. They came in at $164.43 and $168.14 per vote.

Goulet raised $173,205 and got 5,044 votes, or $34.34 per vote. If you add in the estimated $400K in dark money he got it comes to $113.64 per vote.

Rounding out the field:
Finley
$110,685
840
$131.77

Thomas
$132,425
1,002
$132.16


Brown
$77,151
460
$167.72

Adding Goulet's dark money brings the total to $1,543,790 and the average to $93.59.

It'll be interesting to see how this works out once final vote tallies and expenses are in.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Silverman used taxpayer-provided funds to conduct a poll that she then improperly shared with candidates to get them to drop out of the Council race. Silverman used to be a reporter, so she knows very well how seriously wrong this is.

Did she share them? I have not seen that reported anywhere. To my knowledge, she conducted a poll - I do not know how it was funded, and I suppose we have to await the next round of financial disclosures to fully know - and based on those results, she talked Tricia Duncan out of the race.

As the cards lay, Frumin would have won anyhow, but I see no evidence of how the poll was funded nor that she "shared results illegally" with anyone.

On the other hand, we have Goulet on tape admitted that he had illegal access to a 3rd party poll.

If the facts bare as the PP notes and it was illegal, then Silverman should suffer the same consequences as Goulet.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Silverman used taxpayer-provided funds to conduct a poll that she then improperly shared with candidates to get them to drop out of the Council race. Silverman used to be a reporter, so she knows very well how seriously wrong this is.

Did she share them? I have not seen that reported anywhere. To my knowledge, she conducted a poll - I do not know how it was funded, and I suppose we have to await the next round of financial disclosures to fully know - and based on those results, she talked Tricia Duncan out of the race.

As the cards lay, Frumin would have won anyhow, but I see no evidence of how the poll was funded nor that she "shared results illegally" with anyone.

On the other hand, we have Goulet on tape admitted that he had illegal access to a 3rd party poll.

If the facts bare as the PP notes and it was illegal, then Silverman should suffer the same consequences as Goulet.

It takes two to collude. DFER should be punished too for their collusion with Goulet.

[jsteele]

Anonymous wrote:Silverman used taxpayer-provided funds to conduct a poll that she then improperly shared with candidates to get them to drop out of the Council race. Silverman used to be a reporter, so she knows very well how seriously wrong this is.

This "taxpayer-provided funds" is a bit misleading. Silverman is a fair-elections candidate which means she gets matches of funds that she raises. So, yes, some of her campaign funds are provided by taxpayers. But, some of the funds aren't. I assume that it goes into one pot so it's impossible to say which funds ended up being used for the poll. But, if the cost of the poll was less than the amount Silverman raised from individuals, it could be argued that no taxpayer funds were used.

Second, the PP has no way of knowing whether the poll was "improperly shared". That is speculation on the poster's part and not supported by evidence.

[Anonymous]

@Jeff

We don't even know if the funding for the poll came out of her election funds or if she paid for it out of a personal checking account.

So the whole thing is bunk at the moment.

[Anonymous]

Do we really know anything at this point? For all we know Silverman was bluffing when she told the candidates she had a poll.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Do we really know anything at this point? For all we know Silverman was bluffing when she told the candidates she had a poll.

I doubt it, but you raise a fair point. Silverman does not exactly have a reputation for veracity.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Do we really know anything at this point? For all we know Silverman was bluffing when she told the candidates she had a poll.

I can’t recall where, but I remember reading descriptions of the questions asked by the poll from a few who were polled.

[Anonymous]

Was browsing Silverman's Wikipedia page. Some interesting history between her and Frumin from the 2014 at-large race:

Silverman and her campaign tried to negotiate a deal with rival candidate Matthew Frumin, asking him to drop out of the election in exchange for her supporting him in a future election.[17][18] Frumin declined the offer, saying he felt he still had a chance to win.[17] Frumin said Silverman's offer may contradict her case for being a reformer.[17]

"It was explicit that she would support me in a Ward 3 race, including against Mary Cheh," said Frumin, who has consistently said he has no interest in running against Cheh next year. "The idea of an attempted deal, maybe that is what happens in politics, but when you are claiming a whole new politics, that is something of an issue."

[Anonymous]

Silverman likely ran the poll to get Frumin out of the race and support Duncan, but Duncan's polling was too weak.

Anyone, particularly from the Goulet side, who continues with the BS about having that poll be collusive between Silverman and Frumin simply doesn't know what they are talking about.