2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-polls-donald-trump-swing-states-1947207

Looks like Trump is gaining ground, if not outright leading

That's all Trafalagar, the R pollster

Not saying don't pay any attention - but don't give undue attention

And also, just: does it feel to you like Trump is gaining ground? Does it comport with what you're seeing and experiencing right now? Vibes aren't everything but they are not nothing

Trafalgar had Trump up +2 nationally on the eve of the 2020 election...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-polls-donald-trump-swing-states-1947207

Looks like Trump is gaining ground, if not outright leading

That's all Trafalagar, the R pollster

Not saying don't pay any attention - but don't give undue attention

And also, just: does it feel to you like Trump is gaining ground? Does it comport with what you're seeing and experiencing right now? Vibes aren't everything but they are not nothing

"As to a number of swing states, Trafalgar's latest 2020 general election polls showed Trump winning Arizona by 3 points, Georgia by 4 points, Michigan by 3 points, Nevada by 1 point, and Pennsylvania by 2 points. However, Biden won Arizona by less than 1 point, Georgia by less than 1 point, Michigan by nearly 3 points, Nevada by approximately 2.5 points, and Pennsylvania by approximately 2 points."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trafalgar_Group

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

It’s more that she isn't taking anything for granted. I bet she visits Omaha as well at some point.

+1
Right wingers had their undies in a knot because they felt that Mrs. Clinton didn’t visit her known winning states often enough and thus lost them, but they have their undies in a knot when Harris is campaigning.

And who keeps posting right wing douches like Charlie Kirk and Nick Fuentes? It’s gross.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:based on where "spend" is being allocated, this appears to be the Trump strategy

And then he will push the non-electoral route if this fails.

Ok..:
So what happens is ME 1 goes for Harris and we have
269/269
What happens then?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

These aggregate poilling numbers don't mean a thing given the electoral college, but given the structural imbalance, Harris really needs top be up 8-10 points for those numbers to be truly meaningful.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:based on where "spend" is being allocated, this appears to be the Trump strategy

And then he will push the non-electoral route if this fails.

Ok..:
So what happens is ME 1 goes for Harris and we have
269/269
What happens then?

It gets thrown to the House delegations, of which the GOP has a majority, and Trump is declared the winner.

[Anonymous]

Maybe?

Certainly a more hotly contested Senate race than people are considering.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Isn’t Nate Silver very clear about why the model has swung in Trumps direction? He also said Kamala will start going back up after the model is done “correcting” for the post-convention bounce and some more quality polling comes out post-Labor Day.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

I'm sorry but those numbers are preposterous

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I'm sorry but those numbers are preposterous

Yeah, I just opened it up, it is not this at all?

Harris 56%, Trump 44%?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/#:~:text=538%E2%80%99s%202024