Data Goldmine: YoY Enrollment Patterns by School
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Anonymous
We can't, but we also can't see how many people attend BASIS because they didn't get a good enough lottery number to go elsewhere. The lottery factor works both ways. What we can see is that BASIS admits 65% of its applicants, but it does not attract anywhere near 65% of the students who have access to good middle schools. |
Anonymous
What we can see is that BASIS consistently has about 300-325 kids match or be waitlisted, total. Of course, some people don't match because they matched somewhere else they ranked higher, but that doesn't exactly reflect well on BASIS. If a lot of people wanted to go to BASIS, they would apply and they would rank it high, and the waitlist would be longer. Like how it is for Latin 2nd St. We can also tell how many offers BASIS makes. It's about 50-60 for a class of 135 kids. So their offer decline rate is pretty high. If you compare it to Latin 2nd st, the 5th grade waitlist is much longer and the number of offers much lower. So yes the lottery is a limiting factor, but when we view the data as best we can, BASIS doesn't come out looking great. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay |
Anonymous
Well, BASIS accepts 65% of its applicants. (That's complicated by sibling preference of course). So I suppose you could work on the assumption that 25 kids from Deal means that 38 kids applied (25 being 65% of 38). So it's still not a very high number. |
Anonymous
Actually, it accepts 65% of its applicants who didn't match elsewhere. But still. There's really no way to slice or dice this data that demonstrates significant interest from families IB for Deal or with rights to Deal. |
Anonymous
FWIW I don't think PP is lying. The vibe re: EH at SWS is TOTALLY different than the vibe at Maury. Maury sent *27* kids to EH last year. If that doesn't tell you that there is some actual buy-in, I don't know what would. I do think some of it just comes down to this weird "we're the chosen ones" belief that SWSers have. It's hard for them to "settle" for their feeder school especially when it so clearly isn't *the chosen one* even on the Hill. (That's not to trash EH, which I think is clearly on a good trajectory... but, at the moment, I think few would disagree that SH is more highly regarded/more people consider it an option.) My kids go to a different Hill ES and I'm always shocked by the number of SWS parents who just assume I'm trying to get my kids into SWS in the lottery every year. It's really this odd mentality that I think is at odds with accepting EH. Maury families, on the other hand, have seen first hand that you can build a school into a desirable juggernaut just by going to it. So naturally their attitude towards EH is different/more optimistic. Good for them. (FWIW I think Payne families are seeing that too, so it's a good combo for EH.) |
Anonymous
No dog in this fight, but I think the PP is overstating things. I think EH is on an upward trajectory, but ITS is way more of a sure thing still. 2R I think is different. I would no longer send my kids there after how much of a mess the last few years have been. |
Anonymous
Honestly, I think people who already go to ITS are likely not to be interested in EH, and the same is true for EH and its feeders. The friends, the location, and-- importantly-- having all of your children on the same school calendar. I am an ITS parent staying for middle school (applied to Latinx2 but not BASIS or SH or EH), but if I were a Maury parent I'd probably be off to EH without over-thinking it. |
Anonymous
I don't know who the poster in this thread that hates statistics is, but 65% of kids who applied to BASIS & didn't ultimately favor another school got in. We can absolutely draw statistically significant conclusions (with an upper and lower bounds) of the number of kids from each boundary that applied based on the number of kids who attended. The more years' of data we have the smaller the ranges we can estimate with 95% confidence will be. |
Anonymous
This is literally the dumbest argument, and the reason it's dumb has been explained to you over and over, so you're clearly failing to understand on purpose. BASIS is a relatively small school, and it can only "capture" students up to how many kids it's able to admit. So of course you're going to have 10% of one school, 7% of another school, etc. It also makes sense that schools with boundaries that are farther away (e.g. Hardy, McKinley) will have fewer families choosing BASIS than schools that are closer to the BASIS campus (e.g. SH), purely for commute reasons. You don't have to like BASIS. Nobody cares. You clearly have a gigantic chip on your shoulder because BASIS is drawing kids away from EH. That's going to happen, because BASIS has a strong high school, and EH feeds into Eastern, which is a dead end for most people. Maybe instead of spending all your time trying to convince folks that BASIS is unpopular (which has been debunked by multiple posters in this thread and is super weird), you can go do some teacher appreciation for the EH teachers. Time better spent. |
Anonymous
I am really, really not an EH parent! I'm the parent of a 4th grader who did not apply to BASIS, because I don't think BASIS is actually that great. When BASIS boosters make assertions that aren't supported by the data, I object to it because this site should be a source of accurate information. Yes, BASIS should be expected to have students from many schools and not a lot of students from any one school. But still. If it were really that great a school it would have more applicants. Like Latin 2nd! And it wouldn't make as many offers-- again, like Latin 2nd. You have more traction with Stuart-Hobson, but to assert that a lot of Deal and Hardy parents are interested in BASIS is simply not supported by the data. |
Anonymous
Disagree. BASIS is both a rigorous academic program and children have to pass comps in order to advance. That results in fewer people applying, because they are not confident their child can handle it (or don't want their child to have to be able to handle it). Whatever the reasons, the personal choices of the folks applying to the school have nothing to do with the conclusion you're drawing: that it's not "that great a school." Compare the test scores of Latin/Latin 2 and BASIS. BASIS is clearly superior academically. |
Anonymous
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Just for funsies, we can compare with Latin 2nd St. Now, I'm expecting that BASIS will have more kids total because they have a larger middle school enrollment (Latin has 378, BASIS has 436 for SY21-22). And I'm expecting that schools located closer to Latin will have more students at Latin. It seems like Deal, despite not being very close to Latin or BASIS, strongly prefers Latin. And while SH does prefer BASIS, it's pretty close despite the longer commute. I dunno, I don't have a good sense of how the bus and metro commutes would go. But this data does not strike me as a ringing endorsement of BASIS.
BASIS is FAR easier to get into than Latin 2nd is, yet more families from Deal go to Latin-- why? It's not because they didn't have good lottery numbers. Deal: 41 to Latin, 25 to BASIS. EH: 36 to BASIS, 29 to Latin Hardy: 17 to BASIS, 11 to Latin Wells: 23 to Latin, 14 to BASIS Jefferson: 47 to BASIS, 27 to Latin MacFarland: 51 to Latin, 28 to BASIS McKinley: 10 to Latin, 10 to BASIS SH: 54 to BASIS, 42 to Latin Brookland: 26 to Latin, 10 to BASIS CHEC: 10 to Latin, <10 to BASIS |
Anonymous
I don’t think the ITS scores are much better than EH, and it’s much better to walk to school. I turned down ITS. |
Anonymous
No it isn't. The retention policy at BASIS puts off people who aren't as strong academically. That's not the same thing as actually being a better school with better teachers and more learning. Sincerely, a parent of a very academically strong student who has zero interest in BASIS. |
Anonymous
I am an ITS parent who is staying, and yes, the scores are not super wow at either school. If my kid were graduating from Maury I wouldn't go to ITS unless the kid were really really unhappy with EH for some reason. And I wouldn't go from ITS to EH unless there were a specific compelling reason. Which isn't to say it's a bad school, it's just that you get settled in with a friend group and a feeder pattern and the schools are programatically different but I'm not sure there's much of a quality difference overall. |