CM lottery

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There were only 44 applicants to first grade--but then the odds of openings are slim. There were about 380 for pk3. Our WL number is in the 20s. I think we have a chance?

How do you know your waitlist #? It would be amazing if you received your postcard yesterday, as they said they were mailing them out then!

Oh wait, you must have been at the lottery.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There were only 44 applicants to first grade--but then the odds of openings are slim. There were about 380 for pk3. Our WL number is in the 20s. I think we have a chance?

How do you know your waitlist #? It would be amazing if you received your postcard yesterday, as they said they were mailing them out then!

I was in the 20s and know my number because I was at the lottery.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There were only 44 applicants to first grade--but then the odds of openings are slim. There were about 380 for pk3. Our WL number is in the 20s. I think we have a chance?

WL # 20 for PK3? You have a good chance.

Thanks, good to know. I thought that initially but then did the math and got worried that there was no chance. At least I have hope now.

[Anonymous]

anyone get anything in the mail today?

[Anonymous]

No mail today and no phone call. I'm officially predicting we are number 108.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There were only 44 applicants to first grade--but then the odds of openings are slim. There were about 380 for pk3. Our WL number is in the 20s. I think we have a chance?

WL # 20 for PK3? You have a good chance.

Thanks, good to know. I thought that initially but then did the math and got worried that there was no chance. At least I have hope now.

so this is the math:
assume 10% of the families do not return for misc reasons - they move, get in to another school, decide not to make the commute to the new location.

- 2PK3 spots open that were originally "taken" by siblings

assume 50% of the families that "won the lottery" without sibling preferance accept the spot [you can argue if this a good assumption - but let's start with it]
so they move to the next 10 families

assume 50% of the families that get pulled off the waitlist accept
so they move to the next 5 families

you are now in the single digits for waitlist.

School starts - an a few of the families realize that the commute does not really work / their child is having a hard time adjusting and 3 more spots open up.

Congratulations! You get a call the 2nd week of Sept!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There were only 44 applicants to first grade--but then the odds of openings are slim. There were about 380 for pk3. Our WL number is in the 20s. I think we have a chance?

WL # 20 for PK3? You have a good chance.

Thanks, good to know. I thought that initially but then did the math and got worried that there was no chance. At least I have hope now.

so this is the math:
assume 10% of the families do not return for misc reasons - they move, get in to another school, decide not to make the commute to the new location.

- 2PK3 spots open that were originally "taken" by siblings

assume 50% of the families that "won the lottery" without sibling preferance accept the spot [you can argue if this a good assumption - but let's start with it]
so they move to the next 10 families

assume 50% of the families that get pulled off the waitlist accept
so they move to the next 5 families

you are now in the single digits for waitlist.

School starts - an a few of the families realize that the commute does not really work / their child is having a hard time adjusting and 3 more spots open up.

Congratulations! You get a call the 2nd week of Sept!

Best worried parent acceptance algorithm ever! With the move though I'd go as high as 20% don't come back

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:anyone get anything in the mail today?

Nope.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There were only 44 applicants to first grade--but then the odds of openings are slim. There were about 380 for pk3. Our WL number is in the 20s. I think we have a chance?

WL # 20 for PK3? You have a good chance.

Thanks, good to know. I thought that initially but then did the math and got worried that there was no chance. At least I have hope now.

so this is the math:
assume 10% of the families do not return for misc reasons - they move, get in to another school, decide not to make the commute to the new location.

- 2PK3 spots open that were originally "taken" by siblings

assume 50% of the families that "won the lottery" without sibling preferance accept the spot [you can argue if this a good assumption - but let's start with it]
so they move to the next 10 families

assume 50% of the families that get pulled off the waitlist accept
so they move to the next 5 families

you are now in the single digits for waitlist.

School starts - an a few of the families realize that the commute does not really work / their child is having a hard time adjusting and 3 more spots open up.

Congratulations! You get a call the 2nd week of Sept!

Best worried parent acceptance algorithm ever! With the move though I'd go as high as 20% don't come back

Nope, no chance. No way 20% of families have better, more convenient option. At worst, there will be 10% attrition due to move.

[Anonymous]

Could they really make the move by the start of the school year?

[Anonymous]

Yup. No major renovations needed. The building was just renovated last summer.

[Anonymous]

98% have already responding back to the school that they will stay put even with the move to the new location.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:98% have already responding back to the school that they will stay put even with the move to the new location.

would you say no without another option?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:98% have already responding back to the school that they will stay put even with the move to the new location.

would you say no without another option?

I can't obviously speak for all of the parents at CM, but I knew the plans to move - and we are staying with CM (even though it makes my commute more difficult). I could have played the lottery, but I love the school, my child loves the school - and to me, that is most important.

We did get into other schools last year, but decided to stay here. I'm glad we did.

[Anonymous]

I'm a CM parent and I expect most families will return. It's correct that there may be a few families that played the lottery and will have other options that coud impact their final decision. But, from what I can tell, the only real draw to most other schools is language immersion (and the middle school/high school security of DCI), if that's a priority for the parents. Given how challenging it can be to get into those programs, I'm guessing there aren't likely to be too many families that have that option.

At the end of the day, the possible 10% attrition number is probably a good estimate.

Now, for PS3, I can imagine that there might be more movement through the waitlist this year because there are families that applied depending on the current location who will decide not to attend given the probable new location (e.g., West of the park families that were willing to come to Mount Pleasant but don't want to deal with commuting further East).