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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]There were only 44 applicants to first grade--but then the odds of openings are slim.  There were about 380 for pk3.  Our WL number is in the 20s.  I think we have a chance?[/quote]

WL # 20 for PK3?  You have a good chance.  [/quote]

Thanks, good to know.  I thought that initially but then did the math and got worried that there was no chance.  At least I have hope now.[/quote]

so this is the math:
assume 10% of the families do not return for misc reasons - they move, get in to another school, decide not to make the commute to the new location.

- 2PK3 spots open that were originally "taken" by siblings

assume 50% of the families that "won the lottery" without sibling preferance accept the spot [you can argue if this a good assumption - but let's start with it]
so they move to the next 10 families

assume 50% of the families that get pulled off the waitlist accept
so they move to the next 5 families

you are now in the single digits for waitlist.

School starts - an a few of the families realize that the commute does not really work / their child is having a hard time adjusting and 3 more spots open up.

Congratulations!  You get a call the 2nd week of Sept!

[/quote]

Best worried parent acceptance algorithm ever! With the move though I'd go as high as 20% don't come back[/quote]

Nope, no chance.  No way 20% of families have better, more convenient option.  At worst, there will be 10% attrition due to move.[/quote]

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