King Abdullah Academy Closing: FCPS Buy for HS?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Running the numbers, if Westfield lost Floris, Coates, and McNair while picking up all of Bull Run and Cub Run, its FARM rate would increase from 31.31% to 37%. It would also be less than 1900 students, so it would probably pick up more than just the remainder of Bull Run and Cub Run from Centreville and Chantilly.

HHS is around 40% and we have all watched Langley parents throw conniption fits for years over the mere prospect of being moved. So its understandable that the Stone and Westfield families--whose schools already have more than their "fair share" of ELL and FARMs kids--aren't thrilled with pp's great ideas.

The SB is going to need to find some middle class/UMC areas to add to Westfield's attendance numbers. As previously pointed out, no one wants their kids to be moved down so the CHS parents will scream.

Where do you think these kids are going to come from when all the schools near Westfield have a lot of ELL/FARMS kids? Did you wake up one morning and think you were living in Great Falls?

If you pull three feeders out of Westfield, you need to move someone into Westfield. Brookfield is high FARMS (58%). Lees Corner and Poplar Tree are too close to Chantilly to move. Powell is too close to Centreville to move. So you're basically left with Bull Run (43% FARMS) or Centre Ridge (50% FARMS). As between the two, Bull Run is already a split feeder to Westfield and Centreville and makes more sense. And they can send all of Cub Run to Westfield as well.

Honestly, it's starting to get amusing that you can get so enthusiastic about FCPS dropping $150 million to buy KAA because it's a "win" for western Fairfax, and then want to avoid the ramifications.

Lees Corner is on the other side of Rt-50, which means no walkers. Parents will argue their kids can bike to school. Thru has already been chiseling into their boundaries to balance Chantilly populations. That’d be my guess.

That was done without regard to the KAA acquisition. In the first instance, they'll be moving Oak Hill out of Chantilly now. Most of Lees Corner is too close to Chantilly to contemplate moving to a different school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Running the numbers, if Westfield lost Floris, Coates, and McNair while picking up all of Bull Run and Cub Run, its FARM rate would increase from 31.31% to 37%. It would also be less than 1900 students, so it would probably pick up more than just the remainder of Bull Run and Cub Run from Centreville and Chantilly.

Let's be real, hundreds of middle class kids would transfer out in this scenario, as there would be very few advanced courses being offered. So maybe 1600 kids would show up for the first day.

A school with fewer than 1900 kids and 37% FARMs will offer almost no AP courses. Principals are told a class must have 30 or 35 students to offer it.

Guess they just need to cancel this purchase. Clearly it will have too negative an effect on Westfield to pursue.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think the more kids you suggest moving, the more unhappy parents you will have. Sure, they aren't YOUR kids so on paper it makes sense to YOU to move kids from FHS to CVHS, from CHS to WFHS, from CVHS to WFHS to "fill seats".

Come up with a proposal that moves the fewest kids and doesn't make any existing school worse off.

(The only people who want to move are the families hoping to upgrade from Westfield to a nice new school or from the drive to Oakton to a nice new school.)

I get what you’re saying, but the location of the school is unfortunate in that it’s smack dab in the middle of Westfield boundaries. Let’s say they turn Floris into a split feeder, since it shares a boundary with the rest of Westfield. Much of Floris is Dulles Airport and business parks. The SPAs can be viewed from the Coates study (https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/Coates-Area-Boundary-Maps.pdf) The closest SPAs that border Westfield are less than 10 students each, and the one with actual students in it is in the walk zone for Carson and KAA.

1.While KAA is within the Westfield boundary It is separated from Westfield by Dulles Airport, commercial areas, and industrial and warehouse areas. I would not call it in the "smack dab in the middle of Westfield boundary."
2.Floris is ALREADY a split feeder with South Lakes.
3.I don't understand your SPA analysis. I think you missed those neighborhoods along West Ox that are Floris/Westfield. The ones along Monroe go to South Lakes.

To clarify, the least disruptive option is to keep more kids at Westfield so you don’t have to move other schools to backfill Westfield when it loses 3 elementary schools worth of students to KAA. The problem is, Westfield’s current boundaries are divided by an airport and business parks. The SPAs that unite Floris with the rest of the Westfield boundary are huge and have few students (less than a kid per grade.) My point is there’s no obvious path for keeping kids currently zoned to Westfield at Westfield, when the areas currently zoned to Westfield would have to drive past KAA to attend Westfield.

This is exactly right. Coates and McNair are north of Floris, and KAA is located in the Floris district.

Given how much they've prioritized the elimination of attendance islands, how could they keep those schools at Westfield if Floris is going to move to KAA?

If you look at Thru's maps, they didn't really prioritize this at all. SB paid lip service to the concept, but actually, it seems to be way down on their list of priorities.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Running the numbers, if Westfield lost Floris, Coates, and McNair while picking up all of Bull Run and Cub Run, its FARM rate would increase from 31.31% to 37%. It would also be less than 1900 students, so it would probably pick up more than just the remainder of Bull Run and Cub Run from Centreville and Chantilly.

Let's be real, hundreds of middle class kids would transfer out in this scenario, as there would be very few advanced courses being offered. So maybe 1600 kids would show up for the first day.

A school with fewer than 1900 kids and 37% FARMs will offer almost no AP courses. Principals are told a class must have 30 or 35 students to offer it. [/quote]

Please show your work. I don't understand how removing kids with higher FARMs and replacing them with somewhat lower FARMS, increases to 37% and reduces population to 1900. Please explain, because you have not shown your work.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Running the numbers, if Westfield lost Floris, Coates, and McNair while picking up all of Bull Run and Cub Run, its FARM rate would increase from 31.31% to 37%. It would also be less than 1900 students, so it would probably pick up more than just the remainder of Bull Run and Cub Run from Centreville and Chantilly.

Let's be real, hundreds of middle class kids would transfer out in this scenario, as there would be very few advanced courses being offered. So maybe 1600 kids would show up for the first day.

Oh, please. Look at the numbers of FARMS being pulled out of Westfield. Higher than those suggested to go in.

Mathematically, no. The 31---->37% percent math is correct.

Bull Run is 43%
Cub Run is 22%

Coates is 50%
McNair is 30%
Floris is 14%--however, the number is higher for those in current Westfield boundary. Remember, much of Floris goes to South Lakes and does not include the multi-family housing that is in boundary for Westfield.

How do you get the number going up? You are removing more high FARMS than you are adding.

Because the percentage of FARMs are proportional to the number of students each school yields. If you want to make it easier, look at the FARM rate for Stone compared to Westfield. It’s higher because the FARM rate being fed from Carson is lower (obviously you can’t use Carson’s rate alone since it splits to other schools and has so many AAP transfers.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think the more kids you suggest moving, the more unhappy parents you will have. Sure, they aren't YOUR kids so on paper it makes sense to YOU to move kids from FHS to CVHS, from CHS to WFHS, from CVHS to WFHS to "fill seats".

Come up with a proposal that moves the fewest kids and doesn't make any existing school worse off.

(The only people who want to move are the families hoping to upgrade from Westfield to a nice new school or from the drive to Oakton to a nice new school.)

I get what you’re saying, but the location of the school is unfortunate in that it’s smack dab in the middle of Westfield boundaries. Let’s say they turn Floris into a split feeder, since it shares a boundary with the rest of Westfield. Much of Floris is Dulles Airport and business parks. The SPAs can be viewed from the Coates study (https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/Coates-Area-Boundary-Maps.pdf) The closest SPAs that border Westfield are less than 10 students each, and the one with actual students in it is in the walk zone for Carson and KAA.

1.While KAA is within the Westfield boundary It is separated from Westfield by Dulles Airport, commercial areas, and industrial and warehouse areas. I would not call it in the "smack dab in the middle of Westfield boundary."
2.Floris is ALREADY a split feeder with South Lakes.
3.I don't understand your SPA analysis. I think you missed those neighborhoods along West Ox that are Floris/Westfield. The ones along Monroe go to South Lakes.

To clarify, the least disruptive option is to keep more kids at Westfield so you don’t have to move other schools to backfill Westfield when it loses 3 elementary schools worth of students to KAA. The problem is, Westfield’s current boundaries are divided by an airport and business parks. The SPAs that unite Floris with the rest of the Westfield boundary are huge and have few students (less than a kid per grade.) My point is there’s no obvious path for keeping kids currently zoned to Westfield at Westfield, when the areas currently zoned to Westfield would have to drive past KAA to attend Westfield.

This is exactly right. Coates and McNair are north of Floris, and KAA is located in the Floris district.

Given how much they've prioritized the elimination of attendance islands, how could they keep those schools at Westfield if Floris is going to move to KAA?

If you look at Thru's maps, they didn't really prioritize this at all. SB paid lip service to the concept, but actually, it seems to be way down on their list of priorities.

No, they very much prioritized it althought they took a very literal approach to what constitutes an attendance island. I do know there was at least one instance where it looks like they inadvertently created a new island but I don't think it was intentional.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Running the numbers, if Westfield lost Floris, Coates, and McNair while picking up all of Bull Run and Cub Run, its FARM rate would increase from 31.31% to 37%. It would also be less than 1900 students, so it would probably pick up more than just the remainder of Bull Run and Cub Run from Centreville and Chantilly.

Let's be real, hundreds of middle class kids would transfer out in this scenario, as there would be very few advanced courses being offered. So maybe 1600 kids would show up for the first day.

A school with fewer than 1900 kids and 37% FARMs will offer almost no AP courses. Principals are told a class must have 30 or 35 students to offer it.

Guess they just need to cancel this purchase. Clearly it will have too negative an effect on Westfield to pursue.

Its a solvable problem, they just have to figure out how to draw the new boundaries to leave some of the middle class neighborhoods from Mcnair/Floris/Coates at Westfield. I am not so sure they will add in the Bull Run neighborhoods anyway due to the effect on Stone. I guess we'll see.

[Anonymous]

Attendance islands aren't randomly there. They were usually created for a specific reason.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Running the numbers, if Westfield lost Floris, Coates, and McNair while picking up all of Bull Run and Cub Run, its FARM rate would increase from 31.31% to 37%. It would also be less than 1900 students, so it would probably pick up more than just the remainder of Bull Run and Cub Run from Centreville and Chantilly.

Let's be real, hundreds of middle class kids would transfer out in this scenario, as there would be very few advanced courses being offered. So maybe 1600 kids would show up for the first day.

A school with fewer than 1900 kids and 37% FARMs will offer almost no AP courses. Principals are told a class must have 30 or 35 students to offer it.

Guess they just need to cancel this purchase. Clearly it will have too negative an effect on Westfield to pursue.

Its a solvable problem, they just have to figure out how to draw the new boundaries to leave some of the middle class neighborhoods from Mcnair/Floris/Coates at Westfield. I am not so sure they will add in the Bull Run neighborhoods anyway due to the effect on Stone. I guess we'll see.

They will not leave those kids near KAA at Westfield.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Running the numbers, if Westfield lost Floris, Coates, and McNair while picking up all of Bull Run and Cub Run, its FARM rate would increase from 31.31% to 37%. It would also be less than 1900 students, so it would probably pick up more than just the remainder of Bull Run and Cub Run from Centreville and Chantilly.

Let's be real, hundreds of middle class kids would transfer out in this scenario, as there would be very few advanced courses being offered. So maybe 1600 kids would show up for the first day.

Oh, please. Look at the numbers of FARMS being pulled out of Westfield. Higher than those suggested to go in.

Mathematically, no. The 31---->37% percent math is correct.

Bull Run is 43%
Cub Run is 22%

Coates is 50%
McNair is 30%
Floris is 14%--however, the number is higher for those in current Westfield boundary. Remember, much of Floris goes to South Lakes and does not include the multi-family housing that is in boundary for Westfield.

How do you get the number going up? You are removing more high FARMS than you are adding.

Because the percentage of FARMs are proportional to the number of students each school yields. If you want to make it easier, look at the FARM rate for Stone compared to Westfield. It’s higher because the FARM rate being fed from Carson is lower (obviously you can’t use Carson’s rate alone since it splits to other schools and has so many AAP transfers.)

But, you have totally left out the AAP kids at Rocky Run who go to Westfield. That changes your stats significantly.
Congratulations! Your enrollment goes up and your FARMS stats go down. Westfield will be just fine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't think the SB will move all three of those schools out of Westfield b/c it would decrease enrollment too much.

They will replace them with other schools.

That's a lot more disruptive, though, and upsets a lot more families. Leaving a school at the school they currently attend is MUCH easier politically.

So, you would keep kids on the school bus down the 28 race track because of politics?

Sure. They are already there and their parents actively chose that school situation. More fair than moving around a whole bunch of other kids into situations their parents didn't choose. Shrug.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Running the numbers, if Westfield lost Floris, Coates, and McNair while picking up all of Bull Run and Cub Run, its FARM rate would increase from 31.31% to 37%. It would also be less than 1900 students, so it would probably pick up more than just the remainder of Bull Run and Cub Run from Centreville and Chantilly.

Let's be real, hundreds of middle class kids would transfer out in this scenario, as there would be very few advanced courses being offered. So maybe 1600 kids would show up for the first day.

Oh, please. Look at the numbers of FARMS being pulled out of Westfield. Higher than those suggested to go in.

Mathematically, no. The 31---->37% percent math is correct.

Bull Run is 43%
Cub Run is 22%

Coates is 50%
McNair is 30%
Floris is 14%--however, the number is higher for those in current Westfield boundary. Remember, much of Floris goes to South Lakes and does not include the multi-family housing that is in boundary for Westfield.

How do you get the number going up? You are removing more high FARMS than you are adding.

Because the percentage of FARMs are proportional to the number of students each school yields. If you want to make it easier, look at the FARM rate for Stone compared to Westfield. It’s higher because the FARM rate being fed from Carson is lower (obviously you can’t use Carson’s rate alone since it splits to other schools and has so many AAP transfers.)

But, you have totally left out the AAP kids at Rocky Run who go to Westfield. That changes your stats significantly.
Congratulations! Your enrollment goes up and your FARMS stats go down. Westfield will be just fine.

Oh, I have numbers for this for you math people. My dd is going to Westfield from RR for 9th next year. Its 33 AAP kids. (Bull Run AAP is a really small program, my kid's year they only had one class per grade.) Of course some of these kids are probably on free/reduced lunch but no clue how many.

[Anonymous]

There are AAP "centers" with just one class per grade? What's the point of changing schools for that?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Running the numbers, if Westfield lost Floris, Coates, and McNair while picking up all of Bull Run and Cub Run, its FARM rate would increase from 31.31% to 37%. It would also be less than 1900 students, so it would probably pick up more than just the remainder of Bull Run and Cub Run from Centreville and Chantilly.

Let's be real, hundreds of middle class kids would transfer out in this scenario, as there would be very few advanced courses being offered. So maybe 1600 kids would show up for the first day.

Oh, please. Look at the numbers of FARMS being pulled out of Westfield. Higher than those suggested to go in.

Mathematically, no. The 31---->37% percent math is correct.

Bull Run is 43%
Cub Run is 22%

Coates is 50%
McNair is 30%
Floris is 14%--however, the number is higher for those in current Westfield boundary. Remember, much of Floris goes to South Lakes and does not include the multi-family housing that is in boundary for Westfield.

How do you get the number going up? You are removing more high FARMS than you are adding.

Because the percentage of FARMs are proportional to the number of students each school yields. If you want to make it easier, look at the FARM rate for Stone compared to Westfield. It’s higher because the FARM rate being fed from Carson is lower (obviously you can’t use Carson’s rate alone since it splits to other schools and has so many AAP transfers.)

But, you have totally left out the AAP kids at Rocky Run who go to Westfield. That changes your stats significantly.
Congratulations! Your enrollment goes up and your FARMS stats go down. Westfield will be just fine.

Oh, I have numbers for this for you math people. My dd is going to Westfield from RR for 9th next year. Its 33 AAP kids. (Bull Run AAP is a really small program, my kid's year they only had one class per grade.) Of course some of these kids are probably on free/reduced lunch but no clue how many.

Westfield numbers without the Coates, McNair and Floris FARMS would be way, way lower than 31 %. Are you removing those before you run your new numbers? Because jumping 6% when you are removing higher FARMS just does not work.
Again, please show your work.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There are AAP "centers" with just one class per grade? What's the point of changing schools for that?

It serves Chantilly, Centreville, and Westfield, I think.