Reply to King Abdullah Academy Closing: FCPS Buy for HS?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Running the numbers, if Westfield lost Floris, Coates, and McNair while picking up all of Bull Run and Cub Run, its FARM rate would increase from [b]31.31% to 37%. It would also be less than 1900 students[/b], so it would probably pick up more than just the remainder of Bull Run and Cub Run from Centreville and Chantilly. [/quote]

Let's be real, hundreds of middle class kids would transfer out in this scenario, as there would be very few advanced courses being offered. So maybe 1600 kids would show up for the first day.[/quote]

Oh, please.  Look at the numbers of FARMS being pulled out of Westfield.  Higher than those suggested to go in.[/quote]

Mathematically, no. The 31---->37% percent math is correct.[/quote]

Bull Run is 43%
Cub Run is 22%

Coates is 50%
McNair is 30%
Floris is 14%--however, the number is higher for those in current Westfield boundary.  Remember, much of Floris goes to South Lakes and does not include the multi-family housing that is in boundary for Westfield.

How do you get the number going up?  You are removing more high FARMS than you are adding.[/quote]
Because the percentage of FARMs are proportional to the number of students each school yields. If you want to make it easier, look at the FARM rate for Stone compared to Westfield. It’s higher because the FARM rate being fed from Carson is lower (obviously you can’t use Carson’s rate alone since it splits to other schools and has so many AAP transfers.)[/quote]

But, you have totally left out the AAP kids at Rocky Run who go to Westfield.  That changes your stats significantly.
Congratulations!  Your enrollment goes  up and your FARMS stats go down.  Westfield will be just fine.[/quote]

Oh, I have numbers for this for you math people. My dd is going to Westfield from RR for 9th next year. Its 33 AAP kids. (Bull Run AAP is a really small program, my kid's year they only had one class per grade.) Of course some of these kids are probably on free/reduced lunch but no clue how many. [/quote]

Westfield numbers without the Coates, McNair and Floris FARMS would be way, way lower than 31 %.  Are you removing those before you run your new numbers?  Because jumping 6% when you are removing higher FARMS just does not work.
Again, please show your work.[/quote]

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