Boundary Review Meetings

[Anonymous]

The 86 number is coming from the student transfer dashboard.

https://www.fcps.edu/facilities-planning-future/facilities-and-membership-dashboards

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:45% of Westfield's student population comes from Carson MS. 50% from Stone MS and the rest from AAP centers which is primarily Rocky Run MS.
If all of the Westfield students at Carson MS get shifted to KAA Westfield's class sizes will drop from 700 to 375-400. Which means in 2-3 years Westfield will have less than 1600 students.

Where are you getting those percentages? And, have you added in Scenario 4?

I feel like even if these numbers are indeed slightly off, the mass exodus from Westfield means not only Oak Hill being moved out of Chantilly but I wonder if they'd look at Brookfield (which someone brough up earlier) or heck even Lees Corner being sent to Westfield to fill that gap. Or, they leave a lot more extra space at Westfield in preparation for all of the development down that way by the HS/Wegmans...

I don't see the 45% at Westfield.

Remember: Carson has roughly 1000 students without the AAP center kids from Franklin.
Take out 250 for Crossfield. 250 for Fox Mill. Say 200 for Floris.
That yields 300 for Westfield X 2 to allow for four years of high school. So, I get about 600 for Westfield. That would still leave them at better than 2000.

Crossfield ~ 166 students to Carson (technically smaller with a handful going to Hughes)
Fox Mill ~ 150 when you account for net transfers
Floris ~ 136
Take out the 273 AAP transfers (generous since some Westfield students go to Franklin)
733 Carson students zoned to Westfield
That equals 1466 students removed from Westfield.

So no, they are no where near 2000 enrollment. More like 1244. They’re backfilling with more than Bull Run.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:45% of Westfield's student population comes from Carson MS. 50% from Stone MS and the rest from AAP centers which is primarily Rocky Run MS.
If all of the Westfield students at Carson MS get shifted to KAA Westfield's class sizes will drop from 700 to 375-400. Which means in 2-3 years Westfield will have less than 1600 students.

Where are you getting those percentages? And, have you added in Scenario 4?

I feel like even if these numbers are indeed slightly off, the mass exodus from Westfield means not only Oak Hill being moved out of Chantilly but I wonder if they'd look at Brookfield (which someone brough up earlier) or heck even Lees Corner being sent to Westfield to fill that gap. Or, they leave a lot more extra space at Westfield in preparation for all of the development down that way by the HS/Wegmans...

I don't see the 45% at Westfield.

Remember: Carson has roughly 1000 students without the AAP center kids from Franklin.
Take out 250 for Crossfield. 250 for Fox Mill. Say 200 for Floris.
That yields 300 for Westfield X 2 to allow for four years of high school. So, I get about 600 for Westfield. That would still leave them at better than 2000.

Crossfield ~ 166 students to Carson (technically smaller with a handful going to Hughes)
Fox Mill ~ 150 when you account for net transfers
Floris ~ 136
Take out the 273 AAP transfers (generous since some Westfield students go to Franklin)
733 Carson students zoned to Westfield
That equals 1466 students removed from Westfield.

So no, they are no where near 2000 enrollment. More like 1244. They’re backfilling with more than Bull Run.

Wanted to be fair. Westfield base when you add back net transfers is 2933, so the base would be 1467 students remaining at Westfield if only the Stone feeders remained.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:South Lakes also goes from 96% capacity to 101% under Scenario 4. I have to believe that Emerald Chase would go to KAA and not South Lakes.

I do think that Oak Hill is at least an option for Westfield. Pulling Floris, Coates, and McNair out does mean you need to backfill a good amount to Westfield some how. Centreville is also listed as needing relief so I assume some will come from there. Bull run maybe?

If they take the part of Floris that is west of Centreville rd that doesn't actually have any homes and reassign to Oakhill, then the boundaries with Westfield wouldn't be as bad of an attendance island

Do you know where Oak Hill is? Literally down the street from KAA.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Does scenario move any neighborhoods from CVHS or CHS to Westfield?

Only the bit of Bull Run west of 66, about 115 kids.

Scenario 3 sends some Lees Corners and the Chantilly portion of Cub Run to Westfield. Scenario 4 sends nothing. The fact that Chantilly is gaining students under scenario 4, I would be shocked if they didn’t lose 2 elementary feeders. Based on the way they’ve been setting up Lees Corner, it’s the most likely candidate for THRU to send to Westfield. They already chiseled it in scenario 3, and they aligned it with the Franklin portion of Cub Run. This is just my reading of tea leaves.

I also thought that it seemed they were setting up Lees Corner for Westfield after scenario 3 but I can't understand why they would move them back to Chantilly for scenario 4 if that is still the ultimate plan. It seems like maybe now they are thinking someone else, maybe Oak Hill.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Does scenario move any neighborhoods from CVHS or CHS to Westfield?

Only the bit of Bull Run west of 66, about 115 kids.

Scenario 3 sends some Lees Corners and the Chantilly portion of Cub Run to Westfield. Scenario 4 sends nothing. The fact that Chantilly is gaining students under scenario 4, I would be shocked if they didn’t lose 2 elementary feeders. Based on the way they’ve been setting up Lees Corner, it’s the most likely candidate for THRU to send to Westfield. They already chiseled it in scenario 3, and they aligned it with the Franklin portion of Cub Run. This is just my reading of tea leaves.

I also thought that it seemed they were setting up Lees Corner for Westfield after scenario 3 but I can't understand why they would move them back to Chantilly for scenario 4 if that is still the ultimate plan. It seems like maybe now they are thinking someone else, maybe Oak Hill.

Oak Hill is clearly being moved, but I don’t see a scenario where it goes to Westfield. Otherwise they wouldn’t have moved Emerald Chase to South Lakes. I think Oak Hill will go to KAA, and that will create a continuous boundary to pick up Crossfield.

Shockingly, Floris might remain a split feeder.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:South Lakes also goes from 96% capacity to 101% under Scenario 4. I have to believe that Emerald Chase would go to KAA and not South Lakes.

I do think that Oak Hill is at least an option for Westfield. Pulling Floris, Coates, and McNair out does mean you need to backfill a good amount to Westfield some how. Centreville is also listed as needing relief so I assume some will come from there. Bull run maybe?

If they take the part of Floris that is west of Centreville rd that doesn't actually have any homes and reassign to Oakhill, then the boundaries with Westfield wouldn't be as bad of an attendance island

Do you know where Oak Hill is? Literally down the street from KAA.

It's basically the same distance to KAA and Chantilly from a lot of Oak Hill ES addresses. I am skeptical that they would move all or even some of Oak Hill ES to Westfield, but I don't think they are a lock for KAA by any means. Maybe just the Emerald Chase part zoned for Carson, but I bet most if not all of the Oak Hill homes zoned for Franklin stay at Chantilly. Then they will move homes in the northwestern end of the Westfield map (the ones zoned for Carson) into KAA. Then backfill Westfield with homes at the western and southern ends of the Chantilly map.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:South Lakes also goes from 96% capacity to 101% under Scenario 4. I have to believe that Emerald Chase would go to KAA and not South Lakes.

I do think that Oak Hill is at least an option for Westfield. Pulling Floris, Coates, and McNair out does mean you need to backfill a good amount to Westfield some how. Centreville is also listed as needing relief so I assume some will come from there. Bull run maybe?

If they take the part of Floris that is west of Centreville rd that doesn't actually have any homes and reassign to Oakhill, then the boundaries with Westfield wouldn't be as bad of an attendance island

Do you know where Oak Hill is? Literally down the street from KAA.

Yep I live there. Oak Hill is the furthest from Chantilly and they've tried to move it in the past. Emerald Chase already goes to Westfields so the rest of Oak hill Elem could get sent there to backfill. I'm just saying it's possible because Westfield will need at least 1 or 2 schools to backfill IF Floris, McNair(2 schools size wise), and Coates are all pulled out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:South Lakes also goes from 96% capacity to 101% under Scenario 4. I have to believe that Emerald Chase would go to KAA and not South Lakes.

I do think that Oak Hill is at least an option for Westfield. Pulling Floris, Coates, and McNair out does mean you need to backfill a good amount to Westfield some how. Centreville is also listed as needing relief so I assume some will come from there. Bull run maybe?

If they take the part of Floris that is west of Centreville rd that doesn't actually have any homes and reassign to Oakhill, then the boundaries with Westfield wouldn't be as bad of an attendance island

Do you know where Oak Hill is? Literally down the street from KAA.

It's basically the same distance to KAA and Chantilly from a lot of Oak Hill ES addresses. I am skeptical that they would move all or even some of Oak Hill ES to Westfield, but I don't think they are a lock for KAA by any means. Maybe just the Emerald Chase part zoned for Carson, but I bet most if not all of the Oak Hill homes zoned for Franklin stay at Chantilly. Then they will move homes in the northwestern end of the Westfield map (the ones zoned for Carson) into KAA. Then backfill Westfield with homes at the western and southern ends of the Chantilly map.

They are conflict averse. They are going to want to avoid moving as few kids as possible, so they are going to prefer to take a little bit of each surrounding high school's boundary to KAA, rather than pull to much from one school and then "backfill" with a second level of adjustments. Just my reading of their behavior so far.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:South Lakes also goes from 96% capacity to 101% under Scenario 4. I have to believe that Emerald Chase would go to KAA and not South Lakes.

I do think that Oak Hill is at least an option for Westfield. Pulling Floris, Coates, and McNair out does mean you need to backfill a good amount to Westfield some how. Centreville is also listed as needing relief so I assume some will come from there. Bull run maybe?

If they take the part of Floris that is west of Centreville rd that doesn't actually have any homes and reassign to Oakhill, then the boundaries with Westfield wouldn't be as bad of an attendance island

Troll
You want to manipulate boundary lines in order yo make it look like it would not be a island?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:South Lakes also goes from 96% capacity to 101% under Scenario 4. I have to believe that Emerald Chase would go to KAA and not South Lakes.

I do think that Oak Hill is at least an option for Westfield. Pulling Floris, Coates, and McNair out does mean you need to backfill a good amount to Westfield some how. Centreville is also listed as needing relief so I assume some will come from there. Bull run maybe?

If they take the part of Floris that is west of Centreville rd that doesn't actually have any homes and reassign to Oakhill, then the boundaries with Westfield wouldn't be as bad of an attendance island

Do you know where Oak Hill is? Literally down the street from KAA.

It's basically the same distance to KAA and Chantilly from a lot of Oak Hill ES addresses. I am skeptical that they would move all or even some of Oak Hill ES to Westfield, but I don't think they are a lock for KAA by any means. Maybe just the Emerald Chase part zoned for Carson, but I bet most if not all of the Oak Hill homes zoned for Franklin stay at Chantilly. Then they will move homes in the northwestern end of the Westfield map (the ones zoned for Carson) into KAA. Then backfill Westfield with homes at the western and southern ends of the Chantilly map.

They are conflict averse. They are going to want to avoid moving as few kids as possible, so they are going to prefer to take a little bit of each surrounding high school's boundary to KAA, rather than pull to much from one school and then "backfill" with a second level of adjustments. Just my reading of their behavior so far.

That’s impossible since the densest schools (Coates and McNair) are blocked by Floris. Maybe they can rezone Dulles airport to Coates to maintain a continuous boundary!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:South Lakes also goes from 96% capacity to 101% under Scenario 4. I have to believe that Emerald Chase would go to KAA and not South Lakes.

I do think that Oak Hill is at least an option for Westfield. Pulling Floris, Coates, and McNair out does mean you need to backfill a good amount to Westfield some how. Centreville is also listed as needing relief so I assume some will come from there. Bull run maybe?

If they take the part of Floris that is west of Centreville rd that doesn't actually have any homes and reassign to Oakhill, then the boundaries with Westfield wouldn't be as bad of an attendance island

Do you know where Oak Hill is? Literally down the street from KAA.

It's basically the same distance to KAA and Chantilly from a lot of Oak Hill ES addresses. I am skeptical that they would move all or even some of Oak Hill ES to Westfield, but I don't think they are a lock for KAA by any means. Maybe just the Emerald Chase part zoned for Carson, but I bet most if not all of the Oak Hill homes zoned for Franklin stay at Chantilly. Then they will move homes in the northwestern end of the Westfield map (the ones zoned for Carson) into KAA. Then backfill Westfield with homes at the western and southern ends of the Chantilly map.

They are conflict averse. They are going to want to avoid moving as few kids as possible, so they are going to prefer to take a little bit of each surrounding high school's boundary to KAA, rather than pull to much from one school and then "backfill" with a second level of adjustments. Just my reading of their behavior so far.

Doing that would also create a bunch of new split feeders at the elementary level and take more work to redo things at the middle school level. I don't see them doing that much work.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:South Lakes also goes from 96% capacity to 101% under Scenario 4. I have to believe that Emerald Chase would go to KAA and not South Lakes.

I do think that Oak Hill is at least an option for Westfield. Pulling Floris, Coates, and McNair out does mean you need to backfill a good amount to Westfield some how. Centreville is also listed as needing relief so I assume some will come from there. Bull run maybe?

If they take the part of Floris that is west of Centreville rd that doesn't actually have any homes and reassign to Oakhill, then the boundaries with Westfield wouldn't be as bad of an attendance island

Troll
You want to manipulate boundary lines in order yo make it look like it would not be a island?

Not trying to troll at all. I am not advocating it either, we prefer to stay at Chantilly. There are just no homes in a large part of the floris boundary including parts of Dulles.

A new high school could have pretty large number of changes. They already tried to send part of Oak Hill to oakton

[Anonymous]

I tried to start a new thread... because this one is a little intense and confusing.... but they won't let a new threat start... so.....


The new scenario 4 boundaries look like the county really took the feedback from the communities. At least in region 5.
Is the county now only considering scenario 4? Or is scenario 3 still up for consideration?

It sounds like the school start times are likely to remain unchanged. Is that correct or wishful thinking?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I tried to start a new thread... because this one is a little intense and confusing.... but they won't let a new threat start... so.....


The new scenario 4 boundaries look like the county really took the feedback from the communities. At least in region 5.
Is the county now only considering scenario 4? Or is scenario 3 still up for consideration?

It sounds like the school start times are likely to remain unchanged. Is that correct or wishful thinking?

Seeing as they haven’t corrected any of the blatant errors in scenario 3, I think scenario 4 is the one being considered. Scenario 3 might still be posted as a comparison to visualize everything that was reverted.