Comparing flu deaths among kids to (prospective) COVID deaths among kids is too narrow a focus. You do distance learning not just to keep kids healthy, but to keep the adults in their lives from getting sick, too. A better comparison is overall deaths from the flu and overall deaths from COVID. The CDC says the flu is responsible for 12,000 to 60,000 deaths in the U.S. annually. The COVID death toll is 133,000 in only six months -- with kids out of school for much of that time. And there is a vaccine for the flu! Kids in school are not hermetically sealed there. The infections they get in school can be transmitted to adults in school and at home. You have to include those prospective illnesses and deaths among adults in the calculus, too. |
| PP again. You'll also be heaping COVID deaths upon flu deaths. Your argument seems to be that plenty of people die from the flu, why not COVID, too? |
No, the argument is that parents send their kids to school even though kids get the flu at school and die. Now, maybe parents are ok with the risk of their kids dying from school-acquired flu but are not ok with the risk of their kids dying from school-acquired covid. I don't know, and you don't either. But it does suggest that when it comes to sending kids to school, most parents have a potentially-fatal infectious-disease risk tolerance that's higher than zero. |
You've answered your own question here. The other thing to realize is that this is not just about what parents want, or are willing to risk. The decision about f2f instruction has to take into account the effects of the decision upon the larger society in which the schools operate. |
PP: Parents won't send their kids to school because the kids might die of covid! Other PP: Really? Flu kills more kids than covid, yet parents send their kids to school. You: Flu is not covid! Also, what about the adults? As for the effect on the larger society in which schools operate - what is the effect on the larger society of closed schools? |
I am aware of all of this and do not dispute it. As I said in another follow up post, that is a separate question. I was responding only to the PP's (your?) claim that even 10 pediatric Covid deaths would legitimately prompt parents to keep their kids out of school, and explained that this doesn't make logical sense given the annual pediatric flu deaths. Why is that so hard to understand? It's like you guys can't follow an argument. Or as if just mentioning the flu triggers some of you to go off on a lecture about how the two are not the same. I never said they were, nor do I think they are. |
Thank you for helping to make my point so eloquently. That is exactly what I was trying to say. |
Maybe this explains why we're talking past each other a little bit. I didn't make that claim. I am the PP who argued that you need to take the interests of the larger society into account when deciding about whether to have f2f instruction, and how much. I don't think it's a separate question at all; it's the whole question -- at least for the people who ultimately make the decision. (I understand that individual parents who advocate for schools reopening may not be factoring the interests of, say, the elderly empty-nesters who live down the street into their belief about what the right course is.) Also, I'm glad you agree that COVID is worse than the flu and that comparisons to the flu and its impacts are rarely germane to any discussion about whether it makes sense to re-open schools in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic. |
Well yes, you need to take the interests of the larger society into account when deciding to open schools. But you also need to take the interests of the larger society into account when deciding to close schools. School is an essential function of society, so the question isn't whether it makes sense to open schools, but rather whether it makes sense to close schools. |
| OP--It will be "somewhat normal" in fall 2021, and that's only if things go well. |
| I think we need to ask why flu shots aren’t mandatory for all schoolchildren and employees? |
Well, yeah, when you respond to a back and forth between two other posters without paying attention to what the specific question being debated actually was, chances are your input ends up being beside the point. When I said your post raised a "separate question", I meant separate from what I and the other PP were discussing, which was Covid's risk to kids themselves. I'm sure if you went back and read the exchange, that would become clear. And yes, absolutely, you need to take the interests of the larger society into account, which includes both the interests of the elderly and the interests of millions of kids. I don't think most of the posters here who are arguing for a reopening of schools fail to consider the larger picture, they just weigh the risk-benefit calculation differently. And finally, when it comes to the risks of Covid TO KIDS (not an irrelevant question either when thinking about the reopening of schools), which is what I was discussing with the PP, comparisons to the flu are absolutely germane, because the it remains a fact that the flu is more deadly for kids. Pointing that out when someone tries to use the specter of pediatric Covid fatalities to argue against opening schools shouldn't prompt any reasonable reader to assume that whoever is making the comparison is ignorant about the differences between the two viruses. I know it vexes you because Trump has often ignorantly dismissed Covid as no worse than the flu, but his idiocy shouldn't lead us try to silence any further comparative discussion of the two viruses. The bottom line is, don't use the risk of Covid TO KIDS as a reason to argue that schools need to remain closed. Be honest and say it is about vulnerable adults inside and outside the school, and we can have a reasonable discussion about the risks and benefit of prolonged school closures. |
Netflix costs $10/month. That gets me thirty minutes of a nanny (so basically nothing). |
Because in a decent year they are only 30% effective. And there are side effects. So, why make it mandatory. It isn’t an MMR shot. |
Have you looked at the moco numbers at all over the last month? They are trending down every day. By this rate we should be at 2-3% test positivity by fall. We are at 5% as of yesterday. Another year of DL based on these numbers would be completely irresponsible and plain stupid. Even if the fall starts in DL I strongly believe the push back will be so strong based on the numbers that the governor will step in and make them go full time in person by October. |