Reply to So realistically, when do you think somewhat normal full time f2f education will resume?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]January or February - it would be insane to open schools without a vaccine since it will vastly increase the spread of the virus.[/quote]

If there are no deaths of kids attending school (even if lots of them get sick) in the fall, then schools will reopen in January. If kids are dying (even a small number), or if illness rates and deaths among adults get so bad that they have to completely close schools then they will likely not reopen until a vaccine is found.[/quote]

At least 100 grocery store workers have died from covid, but the grocery stores are still open.[/quote]

As a society we tend to prioritize children's lives over adults. The older the person, the less value we put on their lives. It's unfortunate, but it's just how America tends to be. The death of kids attributed to their attending school will keep enough parents from sending their kids in the spring which will cause all schools to go to disctance learning until a vaccine is created.[/quote]

We're keeping schools closed because we prioritize children over adults?!

I apologize for being rude, but that's the most ridiculous thing I've heard today.[/quote]

You are reading much more into what I am saying than what I said.

I said we prioritize children's lives over adults (lives). Meaning, if something kills 100 adults (going to work at a grocery store) our reaction is very different than if that thing (or in this case something similar) kills 100 kids (going to school). If there are even 10 dead kids in this country because they went to school, parents are going to be too scared to send their kids to school. This is largely because we view kids as being helpless and we view adults of having a choice to work or not work (even though that is often not true). [/quote]

[b]Every year, kids die from the flu, which they likely acquired at school[/b]. Per CDC: "Since 2004-2005, flu-related deaths in children reported to CDC during regular flu seasons have ranged from 37 to 187 deaths. Even though the reported number of deaths during the 2017-2018 flu season was 187, CDC’s mathematical models that account for the underreporting of flu-related deaths in children estimate the actual number was closer to 600." (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/highrisk/children.htm). Given that Covid appears to be much less deadly to kids than the flu, we'd be crazy to keep kids out of school if even just 10 kids die from Covid after returning to school, as you suggest. I'm not saying it won't happen as the level of hysteria about Covid is high, but it would not be a rational response considering that those pediatric flu deaths every year don't even make the news in most cases.

And no, I'm not saying Covid is no worse than the flu in general. That is only true for children, for whom the flu is more dangerous.

Also, there is nothing wrong with considering a child's death a bigger tragedy than the death of especially elderly adults. A child has their whole life ahead of them with all its potential, whereas a 70 or 80 year old has already lived most of theirs. It has nothing to do with the value of the person per se, or with whether we view children as helpless.[/quote]

You're right about the flu, of course. You know what else is true about the flu? There is a reasonably effective vaccine for it. Not perfect, but worth getting. So I'm with you. When there is a reasonably effective vaccine for COVID-19, we should think about it, and going back to school f2f, in similar terms as we think about the school and flu. The lengths people will go to to compare COVID-19 to the flu are just incredible to me. People, this is not the flu. This is much worse than the flu. Just look at the death toll nationally. Even if kids generally fare better than adults, do you think they are only going to encounter other kids (and no adults) at school, or when they come home having been infected with the virus?[/quote]

You are missing my point, which wasn't to compare the general risks of the flu to Covid. For the point I was making, i.e. comparing your hypothetical 10 pediatric Covid fatalities in case of school reopening to the actual hundred+ (or, according to CDC, likely 600) annual pediatric deaths from the flu, it is irrelevant whether we have a vaccine or not. These flu deaths happen despite the partially effective flu vaccine. Therefore, it is not logical to say we cannot have kids in school until a vaccine because a small number might die of Covid (which is what you said), while we apparently have no problem sending them despite the actual, not hypothetical flu deaths that happen every year despite a vaccine.[/quote]

Comparing flu deaths among kids to (prospective) COVID deaths among kids is too narrow a focus. You do distance learning not just to keep kids healthy, but to keep the adults in their lives from getting sick, too. A better comparison is overall deaths from the flu and overall deaths from COVID.

The CDC says the flu is responsible for 12,000 to 60,000 deaths in the U.S. annually. The COVID death toll is 133,000 in only six months -- with kids out of school for much of that time. And there is a vaccine for the flu! Kids in school are not hermetically sealed there. The infections they get in school can be transmitted to adults in school and at home. You have to include those prospective illnesses and deaths among adults in the calculus, too. [/quote]

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