Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump approval by 2016 vote (Economist/YouGov polls):

Clinton: 4%
Other: 25%
**Non-voters: 34%**
Trump: 91%

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1217457074067689473?s=21

That doesn't look like enough for re-election. There are so many moving parts that this maybe isn't a terribly useful data point, but if he picks up 4% of the Clinton voters and loses 9% of his own voters, that means -- as between Republican and Democratic voters -- he's down 3 million additional votes. Assuming those votes go to the Democrat, that results in a 9 million vote gap -- which would mean (ignoring 3rd party votes) the Democrat has 53.5% of the vote and Trump has 46.5%. I know that the Electoral College selects the President, but at some point the consent of the governed becomes an issue.

I think what’s more significant is the very low approval of the other voters (those who voted for Johnson or Stein) and the non-voters.

[Anonymous]

NEW Politico/Morning Consult Poll:



Americans who "strongly disapprove" of Trump outnumber those who "somewhat approve" and "strongly approve" COMBINED.



https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016f-a648-d64c-a9ff-f75a8c960000

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:NEW Politico/Morning Consult Poll:



Americans who "strongly disapprove" of Trump outnumber those who "somewhat approve" and "strongly approve" COMBINED.



https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016f-a648-d64c-a9ff-f75a8c960000

It would be interesting to see this stratified by key states.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NEW Politico/Morning Consult Poll:



Americans who "strongly disapprove" of Trump outnumber those who "somewhat approve" and "strongly approve" COMBINED.



https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016f-a648-d64c-a9ff-f75a8c960000

It would be interesting to see this stratified by key states.

Morning Consult’s state by state tracking, updated constantly, is here:
https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NEW Politico/Morning Consult Poll:



Americans who "strongly disapprove" of Trump outnumber those who "somewhat approve" and "strongly approve" COMBINED.



https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016f-a648-d64c-a9ff-f75a8c960000

It would be interesting to see this stratified by key states.

Morning Consult’s state by state tracking, updated constantly, is here:
https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

Morning Consult data from five days ago mapped here. Red is disapproval, green is approval. Check out Michigan/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa and Georgia (!) and Arizona.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NEW Politico/Morning Consult Poll:



Americans who "strongly disapprove" of Trump outnumber those who "somewhat approve" and "strongly approve" COMBINED.



https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016f-a648-d64c-a9ff-f75a8c960000

It would be interesting to see this stratified by key states.

Morning Consult’s state by state tracking, updated constantly, is here:
https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

The timeline slide bar is so much fun.

[Anonymous]

I am afraid Dems will nominate someone with even lower approval ratings by the time of the election.

[Anonymous]

Not a poll, per se, but a brief business news reported today was that the Mortgage bankers association is reporting a 30% increase in mortgage applications from one week to next.

Yes, it's just a brief stat, and one week to next is nothing, and maybe it's just the normal uptick in advance of the spring housing market.

But it does possibly suggest confidence among Americans. Confidence in the economy. Confidence in the stability of the country. Which is not good news for Bernie or Warren. And good news for Trump because people who are confident in the economy are not voting to change horses mid-race.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Not a poll, per se, but a brief business news reported today was that the Mortgage bankers association is reporting a 30% increase in mortgage applications from one week to next.

Yes, it's just a brief stat, and one week to next is nothing, and maybe it's just the normal uptick in advance of the spring housing market.

But it does possibly suggest confidence among Americans. Confidence in the economy. Confidence in the stability of the country. Which is not good news for Bernie or Warren. And good news for Trump because people who are confident in the economy are not voting to change horses mid-race.

How does that increase compare to the same weeks in 2019?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Not a poll, per se, but a brief business news reported today was that the Mortgage bankers association is reporting a 30% increase in mortgage applications from one week to next.

Yes, it's just a brief stat, and one week to next is nothing, and maybe it's just the normal uptick in advance of the spring housing market.

But it does possibly suggest confidence among Americans. Confidence in the economy. Confidence in the stability of the country. Which is not good news for Bernie or Warren. And good news for Trump because people who are confident in the economy are not voting to change horses mid-race.

Almost as many Americans credit Obama with this economy as those who credit Trump.
https://www.bankrate.com/surveys/presidential-election-survey-october-2019/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not a poll, per se, but a brief business news reported today was that the Mortgage bankers association is reporting a 30% increase in mortgage applications from one week to next.

Yes, it's just a brief stat, and one week to next is nothing, and maybe it's just the normal uptick in advance of the spring housing market.

But it does possibly suggest confidence among Americans. Confidence in the economy. Confidence in the stability of the country. Which is not good news for Bernie or Warren. And good news for Trump because people who are confident in the economy are not voting to change horses mid-race.

Almost as many Americans credit Obama with this economy as those who credit Trump.
https://www.bankrate.com/surveys/presidential-election-survey-october-2019/

And what does that mean? Obama isn't the one running against Trump.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not a poll, per se, but a brief business news reported today was that the Mortgage bankers association is reporting a 30% increase in mortgage applications from one week to next.

Yes, it's just a brief stat, and one week to next is nothing, and maybe it's just the normal uptick in advance of the spring housing market.

But it does possibly suggest confidence among Americans. Confidence in the economy. Confidence in the stability of the country. Which is not good news for Bernie or Warren. And good news for Trump because people who are confident in the economy are not voting to change horses mid-race.

Almost as many Americans credit Obama with this economy as those who credit Trump.
https://www.bankrate.com/surveys/presidential-election-survey-october-2019/

And what does that mean? Obama isn't the one running against Trump.

First of all, it’s an actual election poll, while a survey of mortgage bankers plus your speculation is not. Second of all, those who credit Obama with the current economy aren’t going to be convinced they have to vote for Trump to keep it going.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not a poll, per se, but a brief business news reported today was that the Mortgage bankers association is reporting a 30% increase in mortgage applications from one week to next.

Yes, it's just a brief stat, and one week to next is nothing, and maybe it's just the normal uptick in advance of the spring housing market.

But it does possibly suggest confidence among Americans. Confidence in the economy. Confidence in the stability of the country. Which is not good news for Bernie or Warren. And good news for Trump because people who are confident in the economy are not voting to change horses mid-race.

Almost as many Americans credit Obama with this economy as those who credit Trump.
https://www.bankrate.com/surveys/presidential-election-survey-october-2019/

And what does that mean? Obama isn't the one running against Trump.

First of all, it’s an actual election poll, while a survey of mortgage bankers plus your speculation is not. Second of all, those who credit Obama with the current economy aren’t going to be convinced they have to vote for Trump to keep it going.

Unless the opposition is Bernie Sanders.....

Which is what some of you are struggling with.

IT's also why Nancy Pelosi et al are deeply concerned about Bernie wining the nomination.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:NEW Politico/Morning Consult Poll:



Americans who "strongly disapprove" of Trump outnumber those who "somewhat approve" and "strongly approve" COMBINED.



https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016f-a648-d64c-a9ff-f75a8c960000

The past few years have been so crazy and the Dems’ proposals so ambitious that I half-suspect a non-negligible number of right-leaning people who strongly disapprove of Trump will nevertheless end up voting for him.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NEW Politico/Morning Consult Poll:



Americans who "strongly disapprove" of Trump outnumber those who "somewhat approve" and "strongly approve" COMBINED.



https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016f-a648-d64c-a9ff-f75a8c960000

The past few years have been so crazy and the Dems’ proposals so ambitious that I half-suspect a non-negligible number of right-leaning people who strongly disapprove of Trump will nevertheless end up voting for him.

Great, show us that poll, please. My lifelong Republican father and stepmother, who have eight figures in the market between them, are downright excited to vote against Trump. Even if it’s Bernie.