Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
![[Post New]](/jforum/templates/default/images/icon_minipost_new.gif){kind=icon}
Anonymous
I don't care about your anecdotal lifelong Republican father and stepmother. But what I do know is that I'm a centrist independent and I will vote for Donald Trump if Bernie is the nominee. Disapproval doesn't translate into voting against that person. Half the story in politics is always who the opposition is. |
Anonymous
So, no poll then. Perhaps you should find another thread? |
Anonymous
What's perhaps more relevant is that strongly disapprove is at 43%. And the Strongly approve + somewhat approve adds up to 43% too. In a typical election the Democrats are guaranteed 43% of the vote, no matter what. Same for the Republicans. Each side will get a minimum of 43%. There is that 11% who somewhat disapprove. Which means they don't feel so strongly as to a strongly disapprove of Trump. Which is this floating pool of independents/central voters that the Democrats need to defeat Trump. It's not guaranteed that the majority of the somewhat disapprove will automatically vote for the Democratic candidate. It will very much depend on who the Democratic nominee is. They are not in a rush to toss out Trump just because he is Trump because, they only "somewhat disapprove." If Trump keeps his full 43% approving voters and captures slightly more than half that somewhat disapprove bloc, which is well within the realm of possibility, he will win re-election. And I suspect that is what will happen, especially if Bernie is the nominee. |
Anonymous
?? PP is making a perfectly relevant point. Some posters are confusing Trump approval rate with intention to vote for him or not -- which would be impossible to poll now anyway as there is no declared Dem ticket. |
Anonymous
You don't have a poll either about your Republican father and his "eight figure" networth being eager to vote Trump out of office. How do I know he's just being nice to you to shut you up but privately fully intends to vote for Trump, especially if Bernie is the nominee? Let's have a poll on that! The difference between you and me is that I can't rely on your assertion that your Republican father will vote for Bernie over Trump. I don't know if you made it up or not. I don't know if your father is lying to you or not. But what I do know is that I will vote for Donald Trump if Bernie is the nominee, and that is the only thing credible here. |
Anonymous
Great analysis. Thank you. |
Anonymous
more swing state polling on RCP today - I think the TL;DR is that this is going to be a really close race (and jfc when will this anxiety subside)
(Strange to see Bloomberg of all people polling higher than anyone else in Michigan) |
Anonymous
Americans are generally dumb and sheep. aka it's because Bloomberg has spent money on ads in Michigan and no one else has |
Anonymous
|
NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL:
Democratic Primary: 23% @BernieSanders (-3) 18% @PeteButtigieg (-4) 14% @JoeBiden (+/-0) 14% @ewarren (+/-0) 10% @amyklobuchar (+8) https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/new-hampshire-2020-sanders-holds-lead-klobuchar-surges-to-double-digits |
Anonymous
|
#California Democratic Primary:
Biden 30% Sanders 20% Warren 20% Buttigieg 8% Bloomberg 6% Yang 4% Steyer 4% Gabbard 2% Klobuchar 2% @surveyusa Poll |
Anonymous
| It is amazing how many Trump supporters, like Hugh Hewitt, are rallying for a Sanders win. |
Anonymous
He’s easily one of the weakest candidates, if not the weakest. |
Anonymous
| please, Ds, please don't make me vote for Sanders. ugh |
Anonymous
On RCP today - nice to see they are polling Klobuchar against Trump now, and that she's winning
|
Anonymous
Agree. Lots of Dems will stay home. |