When are NMSF announced?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

PSAT tests only reading, writing, and math, which according to TJ admissions is old school and not all that relevant to STEM. If NMSF selection criteria was based on "Portrait of a Graduate attributes and 21st Century Skills", the class of 2025 would have blown past previous years counts?

Yes, every objective metric shows that TJ today is stronger than ever. These naysayers just want to return to the bad old days where people could buy their in and will say anything to justify it.

This flips reality on its head. By every objective metric that matters TJ is weaker.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

Looks like FCPS as a whole was trending gently upward over the last decade. What a seriously sharp drop-off this year. Was Lucy Caulkins introduced when these kids were young or something?

The FCPS drop is entirely attributable to the drop at TJ.

You can't say that without looking at the bigger picture.

Where is the data on NMSFs for all FCPS HSs for the last several years? Where are the population & enrollment #s for the schools? And you have to also look at it across the state of VA to truly get a clear picture since the #s are based kids from across the whole state.

This is data for the last 18 frikkin years!
Pretty consistent levels of NMSFs until the change in admissions and then TJ drops in half without a lot of increase at other FCPS schools from which it draws.

If you have ANY evidence that undermines the obvious conclusions, then you should present it.

The data is all available at the college board site, feel free to share data that you think provides a counterargument. Don't just present wild theories and ask people who think you are wrong to do your research for you and then make your argument for you.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

No, that is just a single data point without context.

Given how NMSF are determined (relative to other kids in the state), you need to look at the bigger picture, across all FCPS high schools and even across the state of VA across several years, to truly understand any possible change in TJ performance.

No we don't. The statistical probability that this is just some random fluctuation is probably zero.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

PSAT tests only reading, writing, and math, which according to TJ admissions is old school and not all that relevant to STEM. If NMSF selection criteria was based on "Portrait of a Graduate attributes and 21st Century Skills", the class of 2025 would have blown past previous years counts?

Don't forget experience factors and geographical diversity.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Could it be people who were locked out of school in 8th grade are doing worse now?

Which schools saw improvements in numbers?

Is there something specific to 8th grade that would affect these results that wouldn't also affect kids that were in 9th 10th and 11th grades?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

Looks like FCPS as a whole was trending gently upward over the last decade. What a seriously sharp drop-off this year. Was Lucy Caulkins introduced when these kids were young or something?

The FCPS drop is entirely attributable to the drop at TJ.

You can't say that without looking at the bigger picture.

Where is the data on NMSFs for all FCPS HSs for the last several years? Where are the population & enrollment #s for the schools? And you have to also look at it across the state of VA to truly get a clear picture since the #s are based kids from across the whole state.

Likely just a short-term side-effect of the pandemic learning loss.

And why didn't that learning loss affect any of the prior grades?

And why didn't it affect any of the other FCPS schools?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

PSAT tests only reading, writing, and math, which according to TJ admissions is old school and not all that relevant to STEM. If NMSF selection criteria was based on "Portrait of a Graduate attributes and 21st Century Skills", the class of 2025 would have blown past previous years counts?

Yes, every objective metric shows that TJ today is stronger than ever. These naysayers just want to return to the bad old days where people could buy their in and will say anything to justify it.

It depends on what you value.

If you value pure merit and academic achievement, the TJ is weaker, FCPS is weaker.
If you value diversity and the sense that TJ represents all of FCPS and not just the wealthy families (and no TJ students aren't mostly from a few feeder schools but it did used to be 2% FARM in a county that is 34% FARM. Then is it a moderate success wityh last year's class having a 16% FARM students.

Stuyvesant in NYC manages ~50% FARM students primarily by removing holistic admissions. Holistic admissions clearly favored wealthier kids because the FARM percentage in the "POOL" was higher than the FARM percentage in the admitted class before the change in admissions. Holistic factors are much more susceptible to wealth than testing. This is why testing was originally implemented, to try to find high achieving poor kids.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

PSAT tests only reading, writing, and math, which according to TJ admissions is old school and not all that relevant to STEM. If NMSF selection criteria was based on "Portrait of a Graduate attributes and 21st Century Skills", the class of 2025 would have blown past previous years counts?

Yes, every objective metric shows that TJ today is stronger than ever. These naysayers just want to return to the bad old days where people could buy their in and will say anything to justify it.

Yes, and Women are doing much better in Afghanistan under the Taliban. The detractors just want to return to the bad old days when moral fulfillment was overlooked in favor of immoral things like empowerment. I am with you sister. Down with propaganda. Truth must prevail.

TJ has a more diverse group of students from all over the county whereas in the past it had mostly students from a few wealthy feeders where parents could afford to shell out for expensive prep. This is progress.

It depends on how you define progress and what you think TJ's mission is.
IMHO, TJ isn't a prize or an end goal. It is an opportunity to compete with the best.
If you think TJ is more important as a social signal of how socially just Fairfax is then I guess you could call it progress in spite of the decline of academics there.
I think it would be better to actually teach the kids at all FCPS schools to the point where we get the racial and geographic diversity you want.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

PSAT tests only reading, writing, and math, which according to TJ admissions is old school and not all that relevant to STEM. If NMSF selection criteria was based on "Portrait of a Graduate attributes and 21st Century Skills", the class of 2025 would have blown past previous years counts?

Yes, every objective metric shows that TJ today is stronger than ever. These naysayers just want to return to the bad old days where people could buy their in and will say anything to justify it.

Yes, and Women are doing much better in Afghanistan under the Taliban. The detractors just want to return to the bad old days when moral fulfillment was overlooked in favor of immoral things like empowerment. I am with you sister. Down with propaganda. Truth must prevail.

TJ has a more diverse group of students from all over the county whereas in the past it had mostly students from a few wealthy feeders where parents could afford to shell out for expensive prep. This is progress.

But those diverse students are not benefitting from the TJ education. That is the problem. The school will go back to more Asians because URM parents don't want their children to be part of a social experiment. They will be the top at their base high school and thrive.

Tokenism always has willing participants because it represents opportunity and the tokens are usually from a population that is starved for opportunity.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

PSAT tests only reading, writing, and math, which according to TJ admissions is old school and not all that relevant to STEM. If NMSF selection criteria was based on "Portrait of a Graduate attributes and 21st Century Skills", the class of 2025 would have blown past previous years counts?

Buahahaha. I am going to assume you have no idea what you're talking about when you say core subjects aren't relevant to what white collar employees do every day or that TJ doesn't care.

He was clearly being sarcastic.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

PSAT tests only reading, writing, and math, which according to TJ admissions is old school and not all that relevant to STEM. If NMSF selection criteria was based on "Portrait of a Graduate attributes and 21st Century Skills", the class of 2025 would have blown past previous years counts?

Yes, every objective metric shows that TJ today is stronger than ever. These naysayers just want to return to the bad old days where people could buy their in and will say anything to justify it.

Yes, and Women are doing much better in Afghanistan under the Taliban. The detractors just want to return to the bad old days when moral fulfillment was overlooked in favor of immoral things like empowerment. I am with you sister. Down with propaganda. Truth must prevail.

TJ has a more diverse group of students from all over the county whereas in the past it had mostly students from a few wealthy feeders where parents could afford to shell out for expensive prep. This is progress.

This is how Maduro justifies his rule in Venezuela. Yes, growth has stalled and the GDP has cratered. Emigration of anyone who can has accelerated. And Venezuela is a joke.

But yes, Maduro claims, the “wealth” is now widely held and not just with a few privileged communities.

Yes, Maduro pitched it as progress. Familiar?

It's not quite that bad.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

PSAT tests only reading, writing, and math, which according to TJ admissions is old school and not all that relevant to STEM. If NMSF selection criteria was based on "Portrait of a Graduate attributes and 21st Century Skills", the class of 2025 would have blown past previous years counts?

Yes, every objective metric shows that TJ today is stronger than ever. These naysayers just want to return to the bad old days where people could buy their in and will say anything to justify it.

This flips reality on its head. By every objective metric that matters TJ is weaker.

Fairfax as a whole is weaker.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

PSAT tests only reading, writing, and math, which according to TJ admissions is old school and not all that relevant to STEM. If NMSF selection criteria was based on "Portrait of a Graduate attributes and 21st Century Skills", the class of 2025 would have blown past previous years counts?

Yes, every objective metric shows that TJ today is stronger than ever. These naysayers just want to return to the bad old days where people could buy their in and will say anything to justify it.

This flips reality on its head. By every objective metric that matters TJ is weaker.

I used to wonder whether the new admissions process would just mean that the talent would just get spread out and we would end up with the same aggregate FCPS academic metrics, just not all concentrated at TJHSST and it is starting to become clear that there is absolute loss as a result of this change.

[Anonymous]

I do think the admissions experiment does yield some valuable information despite the unfortunate results in academic excellence.

There are basically no resources that can be provided by educational infrastructure that could close the gaps. And while efforts around equity and scaffolding and other approaches of support are laudable, they are fruitless and a poor use of our limited resources in an increasingly poor county.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

PSAT tests only reading, writing, and math, which according to TJ admissions is old school and not all that relevant to STEM. If NMSF selection criteria was based on "Portrait of a Graduate attributes and 21st Century Skills", the class of 2025 would have blown past previous years counts?

Yes, every objective metric shows that TJ today is stronger than ever. These naysayers just want to return to the bad old days where people could buy their in and will say anything to justify it.

It depends on what you value.

If you value pure merit and academic achievement, the TJ is weaker, FCPS is weaker.
If you value diversity and the sense that TJ represents all of FCPS and not just the wealthy families (and no TJ students aren't mostly from a few feeder schools but it did used to be 2% FARM in a county that is 34% FARM. Then is it a moderate success wityh last year's class having a 16% FARM students.

Stuyvesant in NYC manages ~50% FARM students primarily by removing holistic admissions. Holistic admissions clearly favored wealthier kids because the FARM percentage in the "POOL" was higher than the FARM percentage in the admitted class before the change in admissions. Holistic factors are much more susceptible to wealth than testing. This is why testing was originally implemented, to try to find high achieving poor kids.

Stuyvesant has a very high FARM percentage because there are a ton of poor NE Asians in NYC, whereas medium Asians/whites move to the suburbs, and rich Asians/whites mostly go private.