When are NMSF announced?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
For those “exceptional” students that did not get accepted into TJ because of the new admission, they should still do well at their schools and perform well on the PSAT. Therefore, the total number of NMSF in FCPS should stay the same. If the "TOTAL" NMSF in FCPS went down, what does it has to do with TJ?

The TJ awards went down by 84, the FCPS total went down by 73. This is entirely a result of the drop at TJ.

Unless you think that PSAT score are assigned at birth, sending our best and brightest to a crucible like TJ makes them more competitive. They aren't subject to the same competition at their base school.

Going to TJ doesn't really do a lot of good for the kids that replaced them.

Competition - it is all about competition! Some parents think school experience is ALL about competition!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

Looks like FCPS as a whole was trending gently upward over the last decade. What a seriously sharp drop-off this year. Was Lucy Caulkins introduced when these kids were young or something?

The FCPS drop is entirely attributable to the drop at TJ.

You can't say that without looking at the bigger picture.

Where is the data on NMSFs for all FCPS HSs for the last several years? Where are the population & enrollment #s for the schools? And you have to also look at it across the state of VA to truly get a clear picture since the #s are based kids from across the whole state.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

No, that is just a single data point without context.

Given how NMSF are determined (relative to other kids in the state), you need to look at the bigger picture, across all FCPS high schools and even across the state of VA across several years, to truly understand any possible change in TJ performance.

[Anonymous]

How many FCPS commended scholars were announced today?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

PSAT tests only reading, writing, and math, which according to TJ admissions is old school and not all that relevant to STEM. If NMSF selection criteria was based on "Portrait of a Graduate attributes and 21st Century Skills", the class of 2025 would have blown past previous years counts?

[Anonymous]

Could it be people who were locked out of school in 8th grade are doing worse now?

Which schools saw improvements in numbers?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

Looks like FCPS as a whole was trending gently upward over the last decade. What a seriously sharp drop-off this year. Was Lucy Caulkins introduced when these kids were young or something?

The FCPS drop is entirely attributable to the drop at TJ.

You can't say that without looking at the bigger picture.

Where is the data on NMSFs for all FCPS HSs for the last several years? Where are the population & enrollment #s for the schools? And you have to also look at it across the state of VA to truly get a clear picture since the #s are based kids from across the whole state.

Likely just a short-term side-effect of the pandemic learning loss.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

PSAT tests only reading, writing, and math, which according to TJ admissions is old school and not all that relevant to STEM. If NMSF selection criteria was based on "Portrait of a Graduate attributes and 21st Century Skills", the class of 2025 would have blown past previous years counts?

Yes, every objective metric shows that TJ today is stronger than ever. These naysayers just want to return to the bad old days where people could buy their in and will say anything to justify it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

PSAT tests only reading, writing, and math, which according to TJ admissions is old school and not all that relevant to STEM. If NMSF selection criteria was based on "Portrait of a Graduate attributes and 21st Century Skills", the class of 2025 would have blown past previous years counts?

Yes, every objective metric shows that TJ today is stronger than ever. These naysayers just want to return to the bad old days where people could buy their in and will say anything to justify it.

Yes, and Women are doing much better in Afghanistan under the Taliban. The detractors just want to return to the bad old days when moral fulfillment was overlooked in favor of immoral things like empowerment. I am with you sister. Down with propaganda. Truth must prevail.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Could it be people who were locked out of school in 8th grade are doing worse now?

Which schools saw improvements in numbers?

Sure, but that doesn't support the false narrative I want to push.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

PSAT tests only reading, writing, and math, which according to TJ admissions is old school and not all that relevant to STEM. If NMSF selection criteria was based on "Portrait of a Graduate attributes and 21st Century Skills", the class of 2025 would have blown past previous years counts?

Yes, every objective metric shows that TJ today is stronger than ever. These naysayers just want to return to the bad old days where people could buy their in and will say anything to justify it.

And it's much less toxic now too!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

PSAT tests only reading, writing, and math, which according to TJ admissions is old school and not all that relevant to STEM. If NMSF selection criteria was based on "Portrait of a Graduate attributes and 21st Century Skills", the class of 2025 would have blown past previous years counts?

Yes, every objective metric shows that TJ today is stronger than ever. These naysayers just want to return to the bad old days where people could buy their in and will say anything to justify it.

Yes, and Women are doing much better in Afghanistan under the Taliban. The detractors just want to return to the bad old days when moral fulfillment was overlooked in favor of immoral things like empowerment. I am with you sister. Down with propaganda. Truth must prevail.

TJ has a more diverse group of students from all over the county whereas in the past it had mostly students from a few wealthy feeders where parents could afford to shell out for expensive prep. This is progress.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

PSAT tests only reading, writing, and math, which according to TJ admissions is old school and not all that relevant to STEM. If NMSF selection criteria was based on "Portrait of a Graduate attributes and 21st Century Skills", the class of 2025 would have blown past previous years counts?

Yes, every objective metric shows that TJ today is stronger than ever. These naysayers just want to return to the bad old days where people could buy their in and will say anything to justify it.

Yes, and Women are doing much better in Afghanistan under the Taliban. The detractors just want to return to the bad old days when moral fulfillment was overlooked in favor of immoral things like empowerment. I am with you sister. Down with propaganda. Truth must prevail.

TJ has a more diverse group of students from all over the county whereas in the past it had mostly students from a few wealthy feeders where parents could afford to shell out for expensive prep. This is progress.

But those diverse students are not benefitting from the TJ education. That is the problem. The school will go back to more Asians because URM parents don't want their children to be part of a social experiment. They will be the top at their base high school and thrive.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

PSAT tests only reading, writing, and math, which according to TJ admissions is old school and not all that relevant to STEM. If NMSF selection criteria was based on "Portrait of a Graduate attributes and 21st Century Skills", the class of 2025 would have blown past previous years counts?

Buahahaha. I am going to assume you have no idea what you're talking about when you say core subjects aren't relevant to what white collar employees do every day or that TJ doesn't care.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

PSAT tests only reading, writing, and math, which according to TJ admissions is old school and not all that relevant to STEM. If NMSF selection criteria was based on "Portrait of a Graduate attributes and 21st Century Skills", the class of 2025 would have blown past previous years counts?

Yes, every objective metric shows that TJ today is stronger than ever. These naysayers just want to return to the bad old days where people could buy their in and will say anything to justify it.

Yes, and Women are doing much better in Afghanistan under the Taliban. The detractors just want to return to the bad old days when moral fulfillment was overlooked in favor of immoral things like empowerment. I am with you sister. Down with propaganda. Truth must prevail.

TJ has a more diverse group of students from all over the county whereas in the past it had mostly students from a few wealthy feeders where parents could afford to shell out for expensive prep. This is progress.

This is how Maduro justifies his rule in Venezuela. Yes, growth has stalled and the GDP has cratered. Emigration of anyone who can has accelerated. And Venezuela is a joke.

But yes, Maduro claims, the “wealth” is now widely held and not just with a few privileged communities.

Yes, Maduro pitched it as progress. Familiar?