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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?[/quote]

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.[/quote]

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.  [/quote]

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble  -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT  have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?

It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.
[/quote]

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.[/quote]

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.[/quote]

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.[/quote]

That's not how NMSF works.  It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state.  They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.[/quote]

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc. 
[/quote]

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.[/quote]

Looks like FCPS as a whole was trending gently upward over the last decade. What a seriously sharp drop-off this year. Was Lucy Caulkins introduced when these kids were young or something?[/quote]The FCPS drop is entirely attributable to the drop at TJ.[/quote]

You can't say that without looking at the bigger picture.

Where is the data on NMSFs for all FCPS HSs for the last several years? Where are the population & enrollment #s for the schools? And you have to also look at it across the state of VA to truly get a clear picture since the #s are based kids from across the whole state. 
[/quote]

Likely just a short-term side-effect of the pandemic learning loss.[/quote]

And why didn't that learning loss affect any of the prior grades?

And why didn't it affect any of the other FCPS schools?[/quote]

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