When are NMSF announced?

[Anonymous]

This was also the first digital PSAT so some students would not be as prepared. The TJ 2026 will be stronger.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This was also the first digital PSAT so some students would not be as prepared. The TJ 2026 will be stronger.

... but first time with digital SAT was true for everyone else in the state.

In fairness, I do think that students from this area is more likely to prep for the exam than those in e.g. Bumpass, VA, so you are probably right that there will be a change.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This was also the first digital PSAT so some students would not be as prepared. The TJ 2026 will be stronger.

I mean, it could be the digital nature of the test. But the drop in NMSF scores in FCPS (and VA and the country) overall is attributable to the pandemic and learning loss and may be permanent, or at least affect students for the next decade or two.

[Anonymous]

Well the average SAT for the class of 25 will soon be available. We can burst the bubble that the test was the issue not the students testing.

The Class Of 25 is clearly not the same academic caliber as earlier. And colleges outcomes will reflect that. The best students ag TJ will likely be as good as their historical peers. But the median would be lower, much lower.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This was also the first digital PSAT so some students would not be as prepared. The TJ 2026 will be stronger.

I mean, it could be the digital nature of the test. But the drop in NMSF scores in FCPS (and VA and the country) overall is attributable to the pandemic and learning loss and may be permanent, or at least affect students for the next decade or two.

This statement is nonsensical. The NMSF cutoff is the top .5% in the state. The numbers never decline. Either FCPS and TJ get their share or someone else in VA does. Looks like someone else in VA did.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This was also the first digital PSAT so some students would not be as prepared. The TJ 2026 will be stronger.

I mean, it could be the digital nature of the test. But the drop in NMSF scores in FCPS (and VA and the country) overall is attributable to the pandemic and learning loss and may be permanent, or at least affect students for the next decade or two.

This statement is nonsensical. The NMSF cutoff is the top .5% in the state. The numbers never decline. Either FCPS and TJ get their share or someone else in VA does. Looks like someone else in VA did.

I think PP's argument might be that other places in the state handled the pandemic differently and therefore didn't have the same amount of learning loss.

It's demonstrably true that many VA public school districts started the 2020-2021 school year with at least a part-time in person option, versus northern Virginia where it took until spring of 2021.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This was also the first digital PSAT so some students would not be as prepared. The TJ 2026 will be stronger.

I mean, it could be the digital nature of the test. But the drop in NMSF scores in FCPS (and VA and the country) overall is attributable to the pandemic and learning loss and may be permanent, or at least affect students for the next decade or two.

This statement is nonsensical. The NMSF cutoff is the top .5% in the state. The numbers never decline. Either FCPS and TJ get their share or someone else in VA does. Looks like someone else in VA did.

I think PP's argument might be that other places in the state handled the pandemic differently and therefore didn't have the same amount of learning loss.

It's demonstrably true that many VA public school districts started the 2020-2021 school year with at least a part-time in person option, versus northern Virginia where it took until spring of 2021.

But the rest of FCPS schools gained 16 NMSF compared to last year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This was also the first digital PSAT so some students would not be as prepared. The TJ 2026 will be stronger.

Maybe the prep centers didn't have a question bank for this new test?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This was also the first digital PSAT so some students would not be as prepared. The TJ 2026 will be stronger.

I mean, it could be the digital nature of the test. But the drop in NMSF scores in FCPS (and VA and the country) overall is attributable to the pandemic and learning loss and may be permanent, or at least affect students for the next decade or two.

This statement is nonsensical. The NMSF cutoff is the top .5% in the state. The numbers never decline. Either FCPS and TJ get their share or someone else in VA does. Looks like someone else in VA did.

I think PP's argument might be that other places in the state handled the pandemic differently and therefore didn't have the same amount of learning loss.

It's demonstrably true that many VA public school districts started the 2020-2021 school year with at least a part-time in person option, versus northern Virginia where it took until spring of 2021.

But the rest of FCPS schools gained 16 NMSF compared to last year.

TJ kids rely on prep and this was a new test. Once the prep centers have time to build a question bank they should be back on top.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This was also the first digital PSAT so some students would not be as prepared. The TJ 2026 will be stronger.

Maybe the prep centers didn't have a question bank for this new test?

Prepping for the PSAT SMH

Maybe the new TJ students know better than to bother prepping for the PSAT.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This was also the first digital PSAT so some students would not be as prepared. The TJ 2026 will be stronger.

I mean, it could be the digital nature of the test. But the drop in NMSF scores in FCPS (and VA and the country) overall is attributable to the pandemic and learning loss and may be permanent, or at least affect students for the next decade or two.

This statement is nonsensical. The NMSF cutoff is the top .5% in the state. The numbers never decline. Either FCPS and TJ get their share or someone else in VA does. Looks like someone else in VA did.

I think PP's argument might be that other places in the state handled the pandemic differently and therefore didn't have the same amount of learning loss.

It's demonstrably true that many VA public school districts started the 2020-2021 school year with at least a part-time in person option, versus northern Virginia where it took until spring of 2021.

But the rest of FCPS schools gained 16 NMSF compared to last year.

TJ kids rely on prep and this was a new test. Once the prep centers have time to build a question bank they should be back on top.

arent the ones being selected now with essay admission criteria so smart in math and english that they dont need prep? one would have expected NMSF count to double instead of cut in half.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

No, that is just a single data point without context.

Given how NMSF are determined (relative to other kids in the state), you need to look at the bigger picture, across all FCPS high schools and even across the state of VA across several years, to truly understand any possible change in TJ performance.

No we don't. The statistical probability that this is just some random fluctuation is probably zero.

I doubt that it’s just some random fluctuation but there are multiple variables that go into determining the top 0.5% of VA test takers. Looking at just this one data point doesn’t tell the whole story. Has the population of FCPS relative to VA changed? Has the enrollment in FCPS changed? More kids in private now? Which VA districts/schools saw increases/decreases? Etc.

Unless you control for other variables you can’t really make this claim.

[Anonymous]

Parent of TJ Class of 2026.

Clearly the counts have almost halved for Class of 2025 vs 2024

PSAT/SAT are the only true predictors. Which is why most top schools are asking for it again.

1500+ SAT score washes out all this confusion

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

FCPS educational quality has been quietly declining for a long time compared to the rest of the state, so we no longer have as many NMSF as the rest of the state.

Or it's a one-off year because the difference between commended and semifinalist is a question or two here or there on each section.

Must the the latter because 28% is not a gradual decline. It’s a big drop.

My question is: what caused it? Some tipping threshold? The old TJ was better able to raise test scores for kids on the bubble -- either through the osmosis of being surrounded by very smart, well-prepped kids or through its curriculum? Longer than normal/less effective online education during Covid shutdowns hit this class at a critical period, whereas the rest of Virginia either was closed for a shorter time or handled it better? Changes made by the College Board to the PSAT have flat-footed the local test prep agencies?


It's worth pointing out that Loudoun's numbers collapsed as well: 82 announced in 2023, 47 in 2024. This, to me, suggests that whatever is happening is not just specific to TJ or even FCPS.

The Loudoun county numbers last year were a spike - it was 44 in 2022.

FCPS, on the other hand, has had 250ish semifinaliats for years until this year.

Doubling in one year, with those numbers, seems even less probable than dropping by 50% the next, especially in context of the sudden large change in the next count over's scores.

The cynical side of me is now considering the possibility that a test security breach has been plugged.

Then pandemic had a big impact on these things and it may be a few more years until it's returned to normal.

That's not how NMSF works. It's not a cutoff score in virginia, it's the top 0.5% of scores in virginia.
NMSF are still the top 0.5% of the state. They didn't cut that in half.
Fewer of the TJ students are in the top 0.5% of the state.

That represents a real drop in the academic quality of the student body.

You really need more data to make that claim.

Population #s, historical data, etc.

No, the claim is pretty well supported by the evidence.

The numbers are dramatically different.

Here are the number of NMSF at TJ and FCPS for the last 18 years.

Year TJHSST FCPS Total
2025 81 191
2024 165 264
2023 132 238
2022 144 214
2021 132 212
2020 157 237
2019 159 254
2018 145 223
2017 119 213
2016 163 237
2015 129 209
2014 132 220
2013 145 229
2012 156 234
2011 124 189
2010 148 219
2009 142 194
2008 151 209
2007 158 208

Every measurable metric has shown a degradation of academic excellence particularly at the bottom of the class.

No, that is just a single data point without context.

Given how NMSF are determined (relative to other kids in the state), you need to look at the bigger picture, across all FCPS high schools and even across the state of VA across several years, to truly understand any possible change in TJ performance.

No we don't. The statistical probability that this is just some random fluctuation is probably zero.

I doubt that it’s just some random fluctuation but there are multiple variables that go into determining the top 0.5% of VA test takers. Looking at just this one data point doesn’t tell the whole story. Has the population of FCPS relative to VA changed? Has the enrollment in FCPS changed? More kids in private now? Which VA districts/schools saw increases/decreases? Etc.

Unless you control for other variables you can’t really make this claim.

Um... how much do you think all of those have changed in one year?

As it happens, we do know the change in FCPS numbers, and they were slight. And there was not a surge in private kids making NMSF, either.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This was also the first digital PSAT so some students would not be as prepared. The TJ 2026 will be stronger.

I mean, it could be the digital nature of the test. But the drop in NMSF scores in FCPS (and VA and the country) overall is attributable to the pandemic and learning loss and may be permanent, or at least affect students for the next decade or two.

This statement is nonsensical. The NMSF cutoff is the top .5% in the state. The numbers never decline. Either FCPS and TJ get their share or someone else in VA does. Looks like someone else in VA did.

I think PP's argument might be that other places in the state handled the pandemic differently and therefore didn't have the same amount of learning loss.

It's demonstrably true that many VA public school districts started the 2020-2021 school year with at least a part-time in person option, versus northern Virginia where it took until spring of 2021.

But the rest of FCPS schools gained 16 NMSF compared to last year.

That’s net. What were the individual increases/decreases?