Do great students sometimes get shut out?

[Anonymous]

’m the PP whose DS was shut out from JMU. His sister, who went TO, was accepted with merit — in state! (To be fair, she had more APs and a slightly higher GPA, and was applying to a specific program; but she was TO so clearly other stats matter more to JMU.)

This is an excellent example of how people are incorrectly assessing the situation. Her kids are totally different applicants - boy v girl, one with more APs, higher GPA and applying to a specific program, and applying different years, yet the PP's conclusion is he was rejected because he submitted a test score and she didn't.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think kids are pitted against each other as much as people think. Selective schools have likely been getting apps from feeder high schools for years if not decades and can adjust. I remember a year when one of HYP took seven kids from one high school here (not DC) - hasn’t happened any other year.

Aberrations like this in the past (7 into Harvard) were often the consequence of unusual high-powered legacy bunching in a given year etc. Not a reliable indicator of the game today (and, indeed, not even for yesterday). In today's world, my reading of the stats from DC's SCOIR is that there appears to be heavy within-school comparison. Plus, the top kids getting shut out in ED is fatal to the next 10 kids in the class who did not lock in vis EA/ED, as the top will apply everywhere. Waitlists are NOT maintained by the school (so when the top student has gained acceptance at a few places and picks one, it is not as if the college AO then goes back and looks at who they can bring in from that same school). If you didn't make it in the first RD round, you are dead to the college for all practical purposes, even if the top student from your school turned around and rejected that college to go elsewhere.

Bottom line: Pray that the top kids in your DC's school get their EDs. Bloodbath for everyone below otherwise.

what private school are you mostly referring to? You must have experience with one, based on your post.
I'm curious as I have a kid at a DC private and am worried about this happening.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:two white boys get in? The fact that pp feels comfortable saying this is a symptom of what is wrong with the world.

no, it's not. the school should've simply admitted all three. the girl was a double legacy, the boys were single. she was probably higher ranked than the one kid who was in less rigorous classes.

They probably needed males.

Studies show when schools bend too far female and fewer males—less want to enroll. The females also want close to a 50-50 balance. No dates otherwise

No, it was a 50/50 HYPSM. There is no gender imbalance risk @ the school - men not less likely to enroll there.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think kids are pitted against each other as much as people think. Selective schools have likely been getting apps from feeder high schools for years if not decades and can adjust. I remember a year when one of HYP took seven kids from one high school here (not DC) - hasn’t happened any other year.

Aberrations like this in the past (7 into Harvard) were often the consequence of unusual high-powered legacy bunching in a given year etc. Not a reliable indicator of the game today (and, indeed, not even for yesterday). In today's world, my reading of the stats from DC's SCOIR is that there appears to be heavy within-school comparison. Plus, the top kids getting shut out in ED is fatal to the next 10 kids in the class who did not lock in vis EA/ED, as the top will apply everywhere. Waitlists are NOT maintained by the school (so when the top student has gained acceptance at a few places and picks one, it is not as if the college AO then goes back and looks at who they can bring in from that same school). If you didn't make it in the first RD round, you are dead to the college for all practical purposes, even if the top student from your school turned around and rejected that college to go elsewhere.

Bottom line: Pray that the top kids in your DC's school get their EDs. Bloodbath for everyone below otherwise.

what private school are you mostly referring to? You must have experience with one, based on your post.
I'm curious as I have a kid at a DC private and am worried about this happening.

This is the reality everywhere - all rigorous privates. Nothing new here. Parents don’t realize until senior year that friends are truly competing with each other.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think kids are pitted against each other as much as people think. Selective schools have likely been getting apps from feeder high schools for years if not decades and can adjust. I remember a year when one of HYP took seven kids from one high school here (not DC) - hasn’t happened any other year.

Aberrations like this in the past (7 into Harvard) were often the consequence of unusual high-powered legacy bunching in a given year etc. Not a reliable indicator of the game today (and, indeed, not even for yesterday). In today's world, my reading of the stats from DC's SCOIR is that there appears to be heavy within-school comparison. Plus, the top kids getting shut out in ED is fatal to the next 10 kids in the class who did not lock in vis EA/ED, as the top will apply everywhere. Waitlists are NOT maintained by the school (so when the top student has gained acceptance at a few places and picks one, it is not as if the college AO then goes back and looks at who they can bring in from that same school). If you didn't make it in the first RD round, you are dead to the college for all practical purposes, even if the top student from your school turned around and rejected that college to go elsewhere.

Bottom line: Pray that the top kids in your DC's school get their EDs. Bloodbath for everyone below otherwise.

what private school are you mostly referring to? You must have experience with one, based on your post.
I'm curious as I have a kid at a DC private and am worried about this happening.

Independent in different city, but similar to Big 3. This happened in DC's class - while didn't end up being brutal, the tension and uncertainty extended for three-ish more months. Probably the top 5 kids did not get in ED - a couple were deferred and three were outright rejected. Sidenote: one of the ED1 rejected was @ upper end of T10, hedging they wouldn't get into an Ivy, but got into HYPSM in RD. But who knows if they would've gotten in REA in December.

Those five didn't necessarily seem to displace the next rungs who had also not gotten in ED1. There was scrambling, etc. Some opted for ED2. There were a subset of those who didn't rejigger at all, but just picked an ED1 peer for ED2. Worked out for some, but others rejected and all was riding in RD.

There is only one kid in that grade who just seemed to strike out. Trying to transfer out of his safety.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think kids are pitted against each other as much as people think. Selective schools have likely been getting apps from feeder high schools for years if not decades and can adjust. I remember a year when one of HYP took seven kids from one high school here (not DC) - hasn’t happened any other year.

Aberrations like this in the past (7 into Harvard) were often the consequence of unusual high-powered legacy bunching in a given year etc. Not a reliable indicator of the game today (and, indeed, not even for yesterday). In today's world, my reading of the stats from DC's SCOIR is that there appears to be heavy within-school comparison. Plus, the top kids getting shut out in ED is fatal to the next 10 kids in the class who did not lock in vis EA/ED, as the top will apply everywhere. Waitlists are NOT maintained by the school (so when the top student has gained acceptance at a few places and picks one, it is not as if the college AO then goes back and looks at who they can bring in from that same school). If you didn't make it in the first RD round, you are dead to the college for all practical purposes, even if the top student from your school turned around and rejected that college to go elsewhere.

Bottom line: Pray that the top kids in your DC's school get their EDs. Bloodbath for everyone below otherwise.

what private school are you mostly referring to? You must have experience with one, based on your post.
I'm curious as I have a kid at a DC private and am worried about this happening.

Independent in different city, but similar to Big 3. This happened in DC's class - while didn't end up being brutal, the tension and uncertainty extended for three-ish more months. Probably the top 5 kids did not get in ED - a couple were deferred and three were outright rejected. Sidenote: one of the ED1 rejected was @ upper end of T10, hedging they wouldn't get into an Ivy, but got into HYPSM in RD. But who knows if they would've gotten in REA in December.

Those five didn't necessarily seem to displace the next rungs who had also not gotten in ED1. There was scrambling, etc. Some opted for ED2. There were a subset of those who didn't rejigger at all, but just picked an ED1 peer for ED2. Worked out for some, but others rejected and all was riding in RD.

There is only one kid in that grade who just seemed to strike out. Trying to transfer out of his safety.

What’s the profile of that one kid?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think kids are pitted against each other as much as people think. Selective schools have likely been getting apps from feeder high schools for years if not decades and can adjust. I remember a year when one of HYP took seven kids from one high school here (not DC) - hasn’t happened any other year.

Aberrations like this in the past (7 into Harvard) were often the consequence of unusual high-powered legacy bunching in a given year etc. Not a reliable indicator of the game today (and, indeed, not even for yesterday). In today's world, my reading of the stats from DC's SCOIR is that there appears to be heavy within-school comparison. Plus, the top kids getting shut out in ED is fatal to the next 10 kids in the class who did not lock in vis EA/ED, as the top will apply everywhere. Waitlists are NOT maintained by the school (so when the top student has gained acceptance at a few places and picks one, it is not as if the college AO then goes back and looks at who they can bring in from that same school). If you didn't make it in the first RD round, you are dead to the college for all practical purposes, even if the top student from your school turned around and rejected that college to go elsewhere.

Bottom line: Pray that the top kids in your DC's school get their EDs. Bloodbath for everyone below otherwise.

what private school are you mostly referring to? You must have experience with one, based on your post.
I'm curious as I have a kid at a DC private and am worried about this happening.

I have one school particularly in mind. But this is true in general for Big 3 and likely others. If your DC is a senior you probably know this to be true anyway.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think kids are pitted against each other as much as people think. Selective schools have likely been getting apps from feeder high schools for years if not decades and can adjust. I remember a year when one of HYP took seven kids from one high school here (not DC) - hasn’t happened any other year.

Aberrations like this in the past (7 into Harvard) were often the consequence of unusual high-powered legacy bunching in a given year etc. Not a reliable indicator of the game today (and, indeed, not even for yesterday). In today's world, my reading of the stats from DC's SCOIR is that there appears to be heavy within-school comparison. Plus, the top kids getting shut out in ED is fatal to the next 10 kids in the class who did not lock in vis EA/ED, as the top will apply everywhere. Waitlists are NOT maintained by the school (so when the top student has gained acceptance at a few places and picks one, it is not as if the college AO then goes back and looks at who they can bring in from that same school). If you didn't make it in the first RD round, you are dead to the college for all practical purposes, even if the top student from your school turned around and rejected that college to go elsewhere.

Bottom line: Pray that the top kids in your DC's school get their EDs. Bloodbath for everyone below otherwise.

what private school are you mostly referring to? You must have experience with one, based on your post.
I'm curious as I have a kid at a DC private and am worried about this happening.

Independent in different city, but similar to Big 3. This happened in DC's class - while didn't end up being brutal, the tension and uncertainty extended for three-ish more months. Probably the top 5 kids did not get in ED - a couple were deferred and three were outright rejected. Sidenote: one of the ED1 rejected was @ upper end of T10, hedging they wouldn't get into an Ivy, but got into HYPSM in RD. But who knows if they would've gotten in REA in December.

Those five didn't necessarily seem to displace the next rungs who had also not gotten in ED1. There was scrambling, etc. Some opted for ED2. There were a subset of those who didn't rejigger at all, but just picked an ED1 peer for ED2. Worked out for some, but others rejected and all was riding in RD.

There is only one kid in that grade who just seemed to strike out. Trying to transfer out of his safety.

Thanks. Not my experience with our school, but good to hear of different outcomes elsewhere.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think kids are pitted against each other as much as people think. Selective schools have likely been getting apps from feeder high schools for years if not decades and can adjust. I remember a year when one of HYP took seven kids from one high school here (not DC) - hasn’t happened any other year.

Aberrations like this in the past (7 into Harvard) were often the consequence of unusual high-powered legacy bunching in a given year etc. Not a reliable indicator of the game today (and, indeed, not even for yesterday). In today's world, my reading of the stats from DC's SCOIR is that there appears to be heavy within-school comparison. Plus, the top kids getting shut out in ED is fatal to the next 10 kids in the class who did not lock in vis EA/ED, as the top will apply everywhere. Waitlists are NOT maintained by the school (so when the top student has gained acceptance at a few places and picks one, it is not as if the college AO then goes back and looks at who they can bring in from that same school). If you didn't make it in the first RD round, you are dead to the college for all practical purposes, even if the top student from your school turned around and rejected that college to go elsewhere.

Bottom line: Pray that the top kids in your DC's school get their EDs. Bloodbath for everyone below otherwise.

what private school are you mostly referring to? You must have experience with one, based on your post.
I'm curious as I have a kid at a DC private and am worried about this happening.

I have one school particularly in mind. But this is true in general for Big 3 and likely others. If your DC is a senior you probably know this to be true anyway.

Potomac

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think kids are pitted against each other as much as people think. Selective schools have likely been getting apps from feeder high schools for years if not decades and can adjust. I remember a year when one of HYP took seven kids from one high school here (not DC) - hasn’t happened any other year.

Aberrations like this in the past (7 into Harvard) were often the consequence of unusual high-powered legacy bunching in a given year etc. Not a reliable indicator of the game today (and, indeed, not even for yesterday). In today's world, my reading of the stats from DC's SCOIR is that there appears to be heavy within-school comparison. Plus, the top kids getting shut out in ED is fatal to the next 10 kids in the class who did not lock in vis EA/ED, as the top will apply everywhere. Waitlists are NOT maintained by the school (so when the top student has gained acceptance at a few places and picks one, it is not as if the college AO then goes back and looks at who they can bring in from that same school). If you didn't make it in the first RD round, you are dead to the college for all practical purposes, even if the top student from your school turned around and rejected that college to go elsewhere.

Bottom line: Pray that the top kids in your DC's school get their EDs. Bloodbath for everyone below otherwise.

what private school are you mostly referring to? You must have experience with one, based on your post.
I'm curious as I have a kid at a DC private and am worried about this happening.

I have one school particularly in mind. But this is true in general for Big 3 and likely others. If your DC is a senior you probably know this to be true anyway.

Potomac

I was going to say NCS. Some version of this has happened there.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It absolutely happens. One of my son’s friends was shut out. He attended JC for a year and is now a sophomore at USC in CA. It’s often a lot easier to transfer in.

It happened because the kid didn't apply to several true safeties. Also, every spring a number of colleges publicly advertise that they still have open slots -- they are happy to accept anyone with halfway decent stats.

But it sounds like the kid at usc is better off in the end by not taking a spot at some random school that had seats open. They did a year at Cc and transferred. Not a big deal.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think kids are pitted against each other as much as people think. Selective schools have likely been getting apps from feeder high schools for years if not decades and can adjust. I remember a year when one of HYP took seven kids from one high school here (not DC) - hasn’t happened any other year.

Aberrations like this in the past (7 into Harvard) were often the consequence of unusual high-powered legacy bunching in a given year etc. Not a reliable indicator of the game today (and, indeed, not even for yesterday). In today's world, my reading of the stats from DC's SCOIR is that there appears to be heavy within-school comparison. Plus, the top kids getting shut out in ED is fatal to the next 10 kids in the class who did not lock in vis EA/ED, as the top will apply everywhere. Waitlists are NOT maintained by the school (so when the top student has gained acceptance at a few places and picks one, it is not as if the college AO then goes back and looks at who they can bring in from that same school). If you didn't make it in the first RD round, you are dead to the college for all practical purposes, even if the top student from your school turned around and rejected that college to go elsewhere.

Bottom line: Pray that the top kids in your DC's school get their EDs. Bloodbath for everyone below otherwise.

what private school are you mostly referring to? You must have experience with one, based on your post.
I'm curious as I have a kid at a DC private and am worried about this happening.

Independent in different city, but similar to Big 3. This happened in DC's class - while didn't end up being brutal, the tension and uncertainty extended for three-ish more months. Probably the top 5 kids did not get in ED - a couple were deferred and three were outright rejected. Sidenote: one of the ED1 rejected was @ upper end of T10, hedging they wouldn't get into an Ivy, but got into HYPSM in RD. But who knows if they would've gotten in REA in December.

Those five didn't necessarily seem to displace the next rungs who had also not gotten in ED1. There was scrambling, etc. Some opted for ED2. There were a subset of those who didn't rejigger at all, but just picked an ED1 peer for ED2. Worked out for some, but others rejected and all was riding in RD.

There is only one kid in that grade who just seemed to strike out. Trying to transfer out of his safety.

What’s the profile of that one kid?

One of the stronger students, probably not top 5. EDed @ an HYPSM and rejected. TBH, think there may also some be some family stuff in his parents wanted a T10 and he maybe was more interested in arts.

Class size: 150

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Our nyc high school has one kid do a gap year about every 3rd or 4th year.

The class of 2023 had 4 in one year.

So .. something didn't work out.

But also, who cares. A gap year is pretty great. There's a lot of data that suggests most kids would benefit.

This.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think kids are pitted against each other as much as people think. Selective schools have likely been getting apps from feeder high schools for years if not decades and can adjust. I remember a year when one of HYP took seven kids from one high school here (not DC) - hasn’t happened any other year.

Aberrations like this in the past (7 into Harvard) were often the consequence of unusual high-powered legacy bunching in a given year etc. Not a reliable indicator of the game today (and, indeed, not even for yesterday). In today's world, my reading of the stats from DC's SCOIR is that there appears to be heavy within-school comparison. Plus, the top kids getting shut out in ED is fatal to the next 10 kids in the class who did not lock in vis EA/ED, as the top will apply everywhere. Waitlists are NOT maintained by the school (so when the top student has gained acceptance at a few places and picks one, it is not as if the college AO then goes back and looks at who they can bring in from that same school). If you didn't make it in the first RD round, you are dead to the college for all practical purposes, even if the top student from your school turned around and rejected that college to go elsewhere.

Bottom line: Pray that the top kids in your DC's school get their EDs. Bloodbath for everyone below otherwise.

So then what are your real options? Applying to 20-30 schools?

Apply widely. Tailor every app. Try to move away from the “top 2”.
Good ones from 21-50….and SLACs

OP here. My kid was deferred from a school ranked around 100. I don't think "apply widely and outside the T20" is brilliant advice anymore.

[Anonymous]

Pretty much Never. If they are great - they are always in.