Do great students sometimes get shut out?

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:It can happen. But unlikely if they choose carefully.

With Naviance, there’s little excuse for choosing poorly.

Wrong. We are seeing rejections at our school that are way above (scores, goa) students from just last year and back to 2019.

The classes of 2019 and 2020 are not benchmarks in any way whatsoever.

It lets you choose specific year comparisons, data goes back to 2019.

Of course I did comparison of just last year. Then 2 years back and so on. Even last year and this year were totally different. No way done kids would have been deferred or rejected a year ago based on all that data.

This cycle isn’t over. And don’t get your last sentence.

Interesting on totally different. Kinda same @ DCs’ independent as well as what my friends are sharing from their kids’ schools. The big cliff was b/t 2020 and 2021. The latter was a wake up call and folks adjusted as best as one can.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:two white boys get in? The fact that pp feels comfortable saying this is a symptom of what is wrong with the world.

Yep. My white boy got shut out by two legacies with much, much lower stats. Really didn’t matter their race or gender.

They did not get shut out. They got rejected.

Deferred.

I think a deferral is a rejection these days.

No, not even close.

Wrong.

[Anonymous]

Second DC applying in this round. The real shut-out risk is that the top student in her class got rejected/deferred for ED. Now the top student (and a couple of others like her close to the very top of the class) will apply RD everywhere. And nobody below them has a chance anywhere T30. You get shut out by your own classmates.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:DS has an EA acceptance to his top choice in hand, so this is pretty much anxiety and idle curiosity speaking. Since admissions can be holistic and somewhat capricious, what happens when a solid student (say, 4+ GPA and 1400+ SAT with great EC's) is shut out from everywhere they applied, even targets and safeties? I'm guessing this happens with a lot of safeties that have more of an 80% admit rate than higher. Do you know anyone this has happened to?

If the student applies to several TRUE safeties (versus what they think should be safeties), then no, they won't get shut out.

I keep hearing this on this board, but how does one know what a TRUE safety is? My DS had a 3.85 gpa and 1480 SAT and was shut out of JMU.

That is indeed strange -- was your DS actually rejected by JMU? Even so, it goes to show that you need to apply to several true safeties. Even if one or two reject due to yield protection, etc., you still won't get shut out.

He applied EA, was deferred, then waitlisted. It was his #1 choice. He wanted a large school that had a good program in his major. His counselor fully believed he would have no problem getting into JMU. He had no illusions of getting into more difficult schools. He ultimately accepted admission at an OOS school that gave him good merit.

I really don't understand this. Know several kids with scores in the 1100s and 1200s that were accepted at JMU. They applied OOS, so perhaps JMU gives a bump to OOS kids / figure the kid really wants to attend if applying OOS?

They applied test optional.

+1 I’m the PP whose DS was shut out from JMU. His sister, who went TO, was accepted with merit — in state! (To be fair, she had more APs and a slightly higher GPA, and was applying to a specific program; but she was TO so clearly other stats matter more to JMU.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Second DC applying in this round. The real shut-out risk is that the top student in her class got rejected/deferred for ED. Now the top student (and a couple of others like her close to the very top of the class) will apply RD everywhere. And nobody below them has a chance anywhere T30. You get shut out by your own classmates.

This is happening at our private

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Second DC applying in this round. The real shut-out risk is that the top student in her class got rejected/deferred for ED. Now the top student (and a couple of others like her close to the very top of the class) will apply RD everywhere. And nobody below them has a chance anywhere T30. You get shut out by your own classmates.

This is happening at our private

Colleges created this by their admission process hard to know who gets in. My dd was not even deferred but rejected with good GPA, SAT, EC and URM. Maybe she would have gotten in if legacy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Second DC applying in this round. The real shut-out risk is that the top student in her class got rejected/deferred for ED. Now the top student (and a couple of others like her close to the very top of the class) will apply RD everywhere. And nobody below them has a chance anywhere T30. You get shut out by your own classmates.

This is happening at our private

Colleges running admissions by largely comparing students within schools create this problem. One the one hand, a comparison like that is useful/necessary (esp if there is rampant grading inflation in any given school). On the other hand, it really kills students who apply from challenging schools, especially if they belong to a strong cohort. TO and/or general devaluation of test scores also means comparisons will increasingly be made within schools. Clueless DC private school CCOs are unable to manage this well -- unlike NY Privates ( for example). It is a nightmare. My advice to DMV parents: If top 10/20 placement in college is the goal, get your kids out of top privates and into less competitive schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Second DC applying in this round. The real shut-out risk is that the top student in her class got rejected/deferred for ED. Now the top student (and a couple of others like her close to the very top of the class) will apply RD everywhere. And nobody below them has a chance anywhere T30. You get shut out by your own classmates.

This is happening at our private

you mean previous years or this year?
Which private?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Second DC applying in this round. The real shut-out risk is that the top student in her class got rejected/deferred for ED. Now the top student (and a couple of others like her close to the very top of the class) will apply RD everywhere. And nobody below them has a chance anywhere T30. You get shut out by your own classmates.

This is happening at our private

Colleges running admissions by largely comparing students within schools create this problem. One the one hand, a comparison like that is useful/necessary (esp if there is rampant grading inflation in any given school). On the other hand, it really kills students who apply from challenging schools, especially if they belong to a strong cohort. TO and/or general devaluation of test scores also means comparisons will increasingly be made within schools. Clueless DC private school CCOs are unable to manage this well -- unlike NY Privates ( for example). It is a nightmare. My advice to DMV parents: If top 10/20 placement in college is the goal, get your kids out of top privates and into less competitive schools.

Totally agree. Each year the system appears more broken than the last. Until and unless the massive supply-demand problem between the number of slots at the top schools (which have not increased by much in the last 30 years) and the number of serious applicants is not resolved, all the perversities are mere symptoms. You fix one, the problem re-appears elsewhere.

[Anonymous]

I don’t think kids are pitted against each other as much as people think. Selective schools have likely been getting apps from feeder high schools for years if not decades and can adjust. I remember a year when one of HYP took seven kids from one high school here (not DC) - hasn’t happened any other year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think kids are pitted against each other as much as people think. Selective schools have likely been getting apps from feeder high schools for years if not decades and can adjust. I remember a year when one of HYP took seven kids from one high school here (not DC) - hasn’t happened any other year.

That’s before the new focus on “FGLI.”

It won’t happen again.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think kids are pitted against each other as much as people think. Selective schools have likely been getting apps from feeder high schools for years if not decades and can adjust. I remember a year when one of HYP took seven kids from one high school here (not DC) - hasn’t happened any other year.

Aberrations like this in the past (7 into Harvard) were often the consequence of unusual high-powered legacy bunching in a given year etc. Not a reliable indicator of the game today (and, indeed, not even for yesterday). In today's world, my reading of the stats from DC's SCOIR is that there appears to be heavy within-school comparison. Plus, the top kids getting shut out in ED is fatal to the next 10 kids in the class who did not lock in vis EA/ED, as the top will apply everywhere. Waitlists are NOT maintained by the school (so when the top student has gained acceptance at a few places and picks one, it is not as if the college AO then goes back and looks at who they can bring in from that same school). If you didn't make it in the first RD round, you are dead to the college for all practical purposes, even if the top student from your school turned around and rejected that college to go elsewhere.

Bottom line: Pray that the top kids in your DC's school get their EDs. Bloodbath for everyone below otherwise.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think kids are pitted against each other as much as people think. Selective schools have likely been getting apps from feeder high schools for years if not decades and can adjust. I remember a year when one of HYP took seven kids from one high school here (not DC) - hasn’t happened any other year.

Aberrations like this in the past (7 into Harvard) were often the consequence of unusual high-powered legacy bunching in a given year etc. Not a reliable indicator of the game today (and, indeed, not even for yesterday). In today's world, my reading of the stats from DC's SCOIR is that there appears to be heavy within-school comparison. Plus, the top kids getting shut out in ED is fatal to the next 10 kids in the class who did not lock in vis EA/ED, as the top will apply everywhere. Waitlists are NOT maintained by the school (so when the top student has gained acceptance at a few places and picks one, it is not as if the college AO then goes back and looks at who they can bring in from that same school). If you didn't make it in the first RD round, you are dead to the college for all practical purposes, even if the top student from your school turned around and rejected that college to go elsewhere.

Bottom line: Pray that the top kids in your DC's school get their EDs. Bloodbath for everyone below otherwise.

So then what are your real options? Applying to 20-30 schools?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think kids are pitted against each other as much as people think. Selective schools have likely been getting apps from feeder high schools for years if not decades and can adjust. I remember a year when one of HYP took seven kids from one high school here (not DC) - hasn’t happened any other year.

Aberrations like this in the past (7 into Harvard) were often the consequence of unusual high-powered legacy bunching in a given year etc. Not a reliable indicator of the game today (and, indeed, not even for yesterday). In today's world, my reading of the stats from DC's SCOIR is that there appears to be heavy within-school comparison. Plus, the top kids getting shut out in ED is fatal to the next 10 kids in the class who did not lock in vis EA/ED, as the top will apply everywhere. Waitlists are NOT maintained by the school (so when the top student has gained acceptance at a few places and picks one, it is not as if the college AO then goes back and looks at who they can bring in from that same school). If you didn't make it in the first RD round, you are dead to the college for all practical purposes, even if the top student from your school turned around and rejected that college to go elsewhere.

Bottom line: Pray that the top kids in your DC's school get their EDs. Bloodbath for everyone below otherwise.

So then what are your real options? Applying to 20-30 schools?

Apply widely. Tailor every app. Try to move away from the “top 2”.
Good ones from 21-50….and SLACs

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think kids are pitted against each other as much as people think. Selective schools have likely been getting apps from feeder high schools for years if not decades and can adjust. I remember a year when one of HYP took seven kids from one high school here (not DC) - hasn’t happened any other year.

Aberrations like this in the past (7 into Harvard) were often the consequence of unusual high-powered legacy bunching in a given year etc. Not a reliable indicator of the game today (and, indeed, not even for yesterday). In today's world, my reading of the stats from DC's SCOIR is that there appears to be heavy within-school comparison. Plus, the top kids getting shut out in ED is fatal to the next 10 kids in the class who did not lock in vis EA/ED, as the top will apply everywhere. Waitlists are NOT maintained by the school (so when the top student has gained acceptance at a few places and picks one, it is not as if the college AO then goes back and looks at who they can bring in from that same school). If you didn't make it in the first RD round, you are dead to the college for all practical purposes, even if the top student from your school turned around and rejected that college to go elsewhere.

Bottom line: Pray that the top kids in your DC's school get their EDs. Bloodbath for everyone below otherwise.

So then what are your real options? Applying to 20-30 schools?

For me, the difference between 20 and 40 or even 50 is just not so great (unlike the difference between HYP and the 20th-ranked school, which, from a certain perspective, is significant). Some schools will be excellent for some students and others for others. In the 20-50 bracket, apply to schools that suit you the best, all things considered (subject interests, campus life, finances, etc..). The differential in prestige is there but is not great. So, yeah, 20-50 (and not just 20-30) would be my thinking.