Ukraine war - which side is winning?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I've posted here a little bit ago stating that a negotiated settlement, when it is reached, would be remarkably close with what was discussed in Istanbul. And then everyone will ask themselves - why didn't we agree to this in the first instance and save everyone the death and destruction that has occurred since? Here is now the plan from National Interest that is very close to the Istanbul tenets:

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/proposed-peace-plan-end-russo-ukrainian-war-203009

I think you are wrong in that “everyone” will ask themselves. In ukraine this question will be illegal! One will be labeled a traitor if they dare ask it in public

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I've posted here a little bit ago stating that a negotiated settlement, when it is reached, would be remarkably close with what was discussed in Istanbul. And then everyone will ask themselves - why didn't we agree to this in the first instance and save everyone the death and destruction that has occurred since? Here is now the plan from National Interest that is very close to the Istanbul tenets:

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/proposed-peace-plan-end-russo-ukrainian-war-203009

I think you are wrong in that “everyone” will ask themselves. In ukraine this question will be illegal! One will be labeled a traitor if they dare ask it in public

LOL if you go down that path, then add this - it would be grounds for summary execution to ask - why didn't we agree to Putin's clearly stated demand for no NATO presence in Ukraine more than ten years ago? If we did, we would still have Crimea and there'd be no war.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I've posted here a little bit ago stating that a negotiated settlement, when it is reached, would be remarkably close with what was discussed in Istanbul. And then everyone will ask themselves - why didn't we agree to this in the first instance and save everyone the death and destruction that has occurred since? Here is now the plan from National Interest that is very close to the Istanbul tenets:

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/proposed-peace-plan-end-russo-ukrainian-war-203009

I think you are wrong in that “everyone” will ask themselves. In ukraine this question will be illegal! One will be labeled a traitor if they dare ask it in public

LOL if you go down that path, then add this - it would be grounds for summary execution to ask - why didn't we agree to Putin's clearly stated demand for no NATO presence in Ukraine more than ten years ago? If we did, we would still have Crimea and there'd be no war.

Who is we? Are you Ukrainian?
But yes I think in general if a small country has a big bully neighbor they should be mindful when chasing waterfalls

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:“Ukrainian forces may soon give up the key battleground of Severodonetsk in the east, where their troops have suffered heavy losses and the Russian offensive has gained significant ground.”

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/06/24/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html

No one is gonna care about Ukraine in 12 months time.

Russians won.

What about the sanctions? They are pretty serious as they stand. What do you think will happen?

Lol sanctions blew back on the west already.

What an L

Imagine telling brad and Karen to pay an extra .50 for gas cuz a couple of Slavs want to fight each other….

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I've posted here a little bit ago stating that a negotiated settlement, when it is reached, would be remarkably close with what was discussed in Istanbul. And then everyone will ask themselves - why didn't we agree to this in the first instance and save everyone the death and destruction that has occurred since? Here is now the plan from National Interest that is very close to the Istanbul tenets:

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/proposed-peace-plan-end-russo-ukrainian-war-203009

I think you are wrong in that “everyone” will ask themselves. In ukraine this question will be illegal! One will be labeled a traitor if they dare ask it in public

LOL if you go down that path, then add this - it would be grounds for summary execution to ask - why didn't we agree to Putin's clearly stated demand for no NATO presence in Ukraine more than ten years ago? If we did, we would still have Crimea and there'd be no war.

Who is we? Are you Ukrainian?
But yes I think in general if a small country has a big bully neighbor they should be mindful when chasing waterfalls

"We" is the global community, primarily the West, which currently is discouraging Ukraine from negotiating a settlement and saying silly things like "the sanctions will continue no matter what". No matter what? OK, says Putin, since sanctions will continue "no matter what", then it doesn't matter what I do or don't do.

It was really more of a primrose path than a waterfall for Ukraine, with disastrous consequences.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I've posted here a little bit ago stating that a negotiated settlement, when it is reached, would be remarkably close with what was discussed in Istanbul. And then everyone will ask themselves - why didn't we agree to this in the first instance and save everyone the death and destruction that has occurred since? Here is now the plan from National Interest that is very close to the Istanbul tenets:

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/proposed-peace-plan-end-russo-ukrainian-war-203009

I think you are wrong in that “everyone” will ask themselves. In ukraine this question will be illegal! One will be labeled a traitor if they dare ask it in public

LOL if you go down that path, then add this - it would be grounds for summary execution to ask - why didn't we agree to Putin's clearly stated demand for no NATO presence in Ukraine more than ten years ago? If we did, we would still have Crimea and there'd be no war.

Huh? Then there'd be no more Crimea and no more Ukraine, or rather, no more Ukrainians, only Russians in their Ukraine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I've posted here a little bit ago stating that a negotiated settlement, when it is reached, would be remarkably close with what was discussed in Istanbul. And then everyone will ask themselves - why didn't we agree to this in the first instance and save everyone the death and destruction that has occurred since? Here is now the plan from National Interest that is very close to the Istanbul tenets:

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/proposed-peace-plan-end-russo-ukrainian-war-203009

I think you are wrong in that “everyone” will ask themselves. In ukraine this question will be illegal! One will be labeled a traitor if they dare ask it in public

LOL if you go down that path, then add this - it would be grounds for summary execution to ask - why didn't we agree to Putin's clearly stated demand for no NATO presence in Ukraine more than ten years ago? If we did, we would still have Crimea and there'd be no war.

Huh? Then there'd be no more Crimea and no more Ukraine, or rather, no more Ukrainians, only Russians in their Ukraine.

Crimea was seized after what Putin saw as a West-sponsored change of government in Ukraine in 2014. Ukraine held Crimea before that point.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I've posted here a little bit ago stating that a negotiated settlement, when it is reached, would be remarkably close with what was discussed in Istanbul. And then everyone will ask themselves - why didn't we agree to this in the first instance and save everyone the death and destruction that has occurred since? Here is now the plan from National Interest that is very close to the Istanbul tenets:

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/proposed-peace-plan-end-russo-ukrainian-war-203009

I think you are wrong in that “everyone” will ask themselves. In ukraine this question will be illegal! One will be labeled a traitor if they dare ask it in public

LOL if you go down that path, then add this - it would be grounds for summary execution to ask - why didn't we agree to Putin's clearly stated demand for no NATO presence in Ukraine more than ten years ago? If we did, we would still have Crimea and there'd be no war.

Who is we? Are you Ukrainian?
But yes I think in general if a small country has a big bully neighbor they should be mindful when chasing waterfalls

"We" is the global community, primarily the West, which currently is discouraging Ukraine from negotiating a settlement and saying silly things like "the sanctions will continue no matter what". No matter what? OK, says Putin, since sanctions will continue "no matter what", then it doesn't matter what I do or don't do.

It was really more of a primrose path than a waterfall for Ukraine, with disastrous consequences.

By chasing waterfalls I meant their dream of joining the EU as if it were some miraculous solutions to all their troubles

[Anonymous]

I think what “the collective West” doesn’t understand is that Putin will gladly let many many of his people suffer and die to reach what he sees is his goal in the Ukraine. It doesn’t matter whether it’s “worth it” for Russia or is really its demise - it’s worth it for Putin.
Is he delusional? The jury is still out on this one. I think he is, but many people can’t easily accept they are just pawns in this game and think he has some great plan of Russian dominance too grand to comprehend by mere mortals.
Anyway, I don’t see how anything can stop Putin, who is wiling to let his own people starve and die should it be necessary for his plan.
So right now it’s either a black swan or a gradual demise of Russia and a rapid decline of Ukraine, with aftershocks felt all over.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I've posted here a little bit ago stating that a negotiated settlement, when it is reached, would be remarkably close with what was discussed in Istanbul. And then everyone will ask themselves - why didn't we agree to this in the first instance and save everyone the death and destruction that has occurred since? Here is now the plan from National Interest that is very close to the Istanbul tenets:

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/proposed-peace-plan-end-russo-ukrainian-war-203009

I think you are wrong in that “everyone” will ask themselves. In ukraine this question will be illegal! One will be labeled a traitor if they dare ask it in public

LOL if you go down that path, then add this - it would be grounds for summary execution to ask - why didn't we agree to Putin's clearly stated demand for no NATO presence in Ukraine more than ten years ago? If we did, we would still have Crimea and there'd be no war.

Who is we? Are you Ukrainian?
But yes I think in general if a small country has a big bully neighbor they should be mindful when chasing waterfalls

"We" is the global community, primarily the West, which currently is discouraging Ukraine from negotiating a settlement and saying silly things like "the sanctions will continue no matter what". No matter what? OK, says Putin, since sanctions will continue "no matter what", then it doesn't matter what I do or don't do.

It was really more of a primrose path than a waterfall for Ukraine, with disastrous consequences.

By chasing waterfalls I meant their dream of joining the EU as if it were some miraculous solutions to all their troubles

Russia never objected to Ukraine joining the EU because it considers EU an economic block, not a military one. And they still don't.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think what “the collective West” doesn’t understand is that Putin will gladly let many many of his people suffer and die to reach what he sees is his goal in the Ukraine. It doesn’t matter whether it’s “worth it” for Russia or is really its demise - it’s worth it for Putin.
Is he delusional? The jury is still out on this one. I think he is, but many people can’t easily accept they are just pawns in this game and think he has some great plan of Russian dominance too grand to comprehend by mere mortals.
Anyway, I don’t see how anything can stop Putin, who is wiling to let his own people starve and die should it be necessary for his plan.
So right now it’s either a black swan or a gradual demise of Russia and a rapid decline of Ukraine, with aftershocks felt all over.

Russia doesn't seem to be under any threat of dying or starving at this time. Yes, life because inconvenient for the affluent and globally mobile but remember that this is a minority.

I am not sure you are justified in calling him delusional. He has been extremely clear for more than 10+ years that he will not tolerate any NATO flirtations with Ukraine and Georgia. This was made explicit in many, many public statements on the subject. After many public warnings and diplomatic approaches, he finally made his point with military means. I mean, if you want, you can decide to think he has no right to an opinion here, but he disagrees, and his reaction was very clear from the start.

All this talk of Russian dominance is nonsense. The core of this conflict can be distilled to this: the West does not think that Russia ought to have a sphere of influence close to its borders. Russia disagrees. OK.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think what “the collective West” doesn’t understand is that Putin will gladly let many many of his people suffer and die to reach what he sees is his goal in the Ukraine. It doesn’t matter whether it’s “worth it” for Russia or is really its demise - it’s worth it for Putin.
Is he delusional? The jury is still out on this one. I think he is, but many people can’t easily accept they are just pawns in this game and think he has some great plan of Russian dominance too grand to comprehend by mere mortals.
Anyway, I don’t see how anything can stop Putin, who is wiling to let his own people starve and die should it be necessary for his plan.
So right now it’s either a black swan or a gradual demise of Russia and a rapid decline of Ukraine, with aftershocks felt all over.

Russia doesn't seem to be under any threat of dying or starving at this time. Yes, life because inconvenient for the affluent and globally mobile but remember that this is a minority.

I am not sure you are justified in calling him delusional. He has been extremely clear for more than 10+ years that he will not tolerate any NATO flirtations with Ukraine and Georgia. This was made explicit in many, many public statements on the subject. After many public warnings and diplomatic approaches, he finally made his point with military means. I mean, if you want, you can decide to think he has no right to an opinion here, but he disagrees, and his reaction was very clear from the start.

All this talk of Russian dominance is nonsense. The core of this conflict can be distilled to this: the West does not think that Russia ought to have a sphere of influence close to its borders. Russia disagrees. OK.

DP. By your definition, he's totally delusional because Ukraine didn't want to be a part of NATO until after they were invaded, and not even really want that still.

Putin didn't invade Ukraine to make some point, to Ukraine or to the West, about NATO. He invaded because he wants Russia to be bigger.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think what “the collective West” doesn’t understand is that Putin will gladly let many many of his people suffer and die to reach what he sees is his goal in the Ukraine. It doesn’t matter whether it’s “worth it” for Russia or is really its demise - it’s worth it for Putin.
Is he delusional? The jury is still out on this one. I think he is, but many people can’t easily accept they are just pawns in this game and think he has some great plan of Russian dominance too grand to comprehend by mere mortals.
Anyway, I don’t see how anything can stop Putin, who is wiling to let his own people starve and die should it be necessary for his plan.
So right now it’s either a black swan or a gradual demise of Russia and a rapid decline of Ukraine, with aftershocks felt all over.

Russia doesn't seem to be under any threat of dying or starving at this time. Yes, life because inconvenient for the affluent and globally mobile but remember that this is a minority.

I am not sure you are justified in calling him delusional. He has been extremely clear for more than 10+ years that he will not tolerate any NATO flirtations with Ukraine and Georgia. This was made explicit in many, many public statements on the subject. After many public warnings and diplomatic approaches, he finally made his point with military means. I mean, if you want, you can decide to think he has no right to an opinion here, but he disagrees, and his reaction was very clear from the start.

All this talk of Russian dominance is nonsense. The core of this conflict can be distilled to this: the West does not think that Russia ought to have a sphere of influence close to its borders. Russia disagrees. OK.

DP. By your definition, he's totally delusional because Ukraine didn't want to be a part of NATO until after they were invaded, and not even really want that still.

Putin didn't invade Ukraine to make some point, to Ukraine or to the West, about NATO. He invaded because he wants Russia to be bigger.

The bolded is false. What's correct is that NATO will not admit Ukraine as of today (although they avoid saying this in public), but the Ukraine - NATO collaboration has been active and strong. In addition, there had been many public statements from the West that "one day Ukraine will be a member of NATO" and the wind was clearly blowing that way.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I've posted here a little bit ago stating that a negotiated settlement, when it is reached, would be remarkably close with what was discussed in Istanbul. And then everyone will ask themselves - why didn't we agree to this in the first instance and save everyone the death and destruction that has occurred since? Here is now the plan from National Interest that is very close to the Istanbul tenets:

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/proposed-peace-plan-end-russo-ukrainian-war-203009

I think you are wrong in that “everyone” will ask themselves. In ukraine this question will be illegal! One will be labeled a traitor if they dare ask it in public

LOL if you go down that path, then add this - it would be grounds for summary execution to ask - why didn't we agree to Putin's clearly stated demand for no NATO presence in Ukraine more than ten years ago? If we did, we would still have Crimea and there'd be no war.

Who is we? Are you Ukrainian?
But yes I think in general if a small country has a big bully neighbor they should be mindful when chasing waterfalls

"We" is the global community, primarily the West, which currently is discouraging Ukraine from negotiating a settlement and saying silly things like "the sanctions will continue no matter what". No matter what? OK, says Putin, since sanctions will continue "no matter what", then it doesn't matter what I do or don't do.

It was really more of a primrose path than a waterfall for Ukraine, with disastrous consequences.

By chasing waterfalls I meant their dream of joining the EU as if it were some miraculous solutions to all their troubles

Russia never objected to Ukraine joining the EU because it considers EU an economic block, not a military one. And they still don't.

I think it miffs them, even if they don’t admit. And it was always a major selling point for politicians in Ukraine - EU, not NATO.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think what “the collective West” doesn’t understand is that Putin will gladly let many many of his people suffer and die to reach what he sees is his goal in the Ukraine. It doesn’t matter whether it’s “worth it” for Russia or is really its demise - it’s worth it for Putin.
Is he delusional? The jury is still out on this one. I think he is, but many people can’t easily accept they are just pawns in this game and think he has some great plan of Russian dominance too grand to comprehend by mere mortals.
Anyway, I don’t see how anything can stop Putin, who is wiling to let his own people starve and die should it be necessary for his plan.
So right now it’s either a black swan or a gradual demise of Russia and a rapid decline of Ukraine, with aftershocks felt all over.

Russia doesn't seem to be under any threat of dying or starving at this time. Yes, life because inconvenient for the affluent and globally mobile but remember that this is a minority.

I am not sure you are justified in calling him delusional. He has been extremely clear for more than 10+ years that he will not tolerate any NATO flirtations with Ukraine and Georgia. This was made explicit in many, many public statements on the subject. After many public warnings and diplomatic approaches, he finally made his point with military means. I mean, if you want, you can decide to think he has no right to an opinion here, but he disagrees, and his reaction was very clear from the start.

All this talk of Russian dominance is nonsense. The core of this conflict can be distilled to this: the West does not think that Russia ought to have a sphere of influence close to its borders. Russia disagrees. OK.

I consider the right to have an opinion on this Putin’s delusion because he is clearly not strong enough for that. Sure people aren’t starving (yet) but men of economically active age are dying, the economy is too dependent on the west, there’s not enough support from the non-west, and the country is struggling to even sustain their modernization achievements