2022 Senate Map

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trafalgar had a C- prior to 2020 and now has an A- which is weird since they got like every 2020 swing state wrong.

Yup. If Trafalgar is showing Warnock +2, it probably means he will win +4. Trafalgar has a consistent 2-4 point bias toward the Republican candidate in individual races.

That's OK - vast majority of pollsters end up having a slight and reliable partisan bias in their polling model. That just reflects the choices made by the pollster writing their poll, collecting their sample, and weighing their sample.

They aren't showing Warnock +2 They have Walker up +2.

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/insider-advantage-gasen2021-poll/

Ok, so then it's a dead heat. Which is basically what the polling has been saying for the last month or two.

A dead heat with Walker down one or two is very different from a dead heat with Walker up two.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Literally people pissing away democracy to save a few bucks on gas.

We deserve what we get.

If democracy is so under threat why have the democrats consume so much of their political capital on completely unrelated garbage like build back better and the inflation reduction act? Why aren't they doing whatever they can to unite the country and save democracy?

Why are Republicans claiming credit for infrastructure funding and other projects and programs that they voted against and labeled as socialism. You can’t unite the country when one party is all bad-faith delusion all the time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trafalgar had a C- prior to 2020 and now has an A- which is weird since they got like every 2020 swing state wrong.

Yup. If Trafalgar is showing Warnock +2, it probably means he will win +4. Trafalgar has a consistent 2-4 point bias toward the Republican candidate in individual races.

That's OK - vast majority of pollsters end up having a slight and reliable partisan bias in their polling model. That just reflects the choices made by the pollster writing their poll, collecting their sample, and weighing their sample.

They aren't showing Warnock +2 They have Walker up +2.

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/insider-advantage-gasen2021-poll/

Ok, so then it's a dead heat. Which is basically what the polling has been saying for the last month or two.

A dead heat with Walker down one or two is very different from a dead heat with Walker up two.

But what if only one poll has Walker up two? Because that’s what’s happening here.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trafalgar had a C- prior to 2020 and now has an A- which is weird since they got like every 2020 swing state wrong.

Yup. If Trafalgar is showing Warnock +2, it probably means he will win +4. Trafalgar has a consistent 2-4 point bias toward the Republican candidate in individual races.

That's OK - vast majority of pollsters end up having a slight and reliable partisan bias in their polling model. That just reflects the choices made by the pollster writing their poll, collecting their sample, and weighing their sample.

They aren't showing Warnock +2 They have Walker up +2.

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/insider-advantage-gasen2021-poll/

Ok, so then it's a dead heat. Which is basically what the polling has been saying for the last month or two.

A dead heat with Walker down one or two is very different from a dead heat with Walker up two.

But what if only one poll has Walker up two? Because that’s what’s happening here.

Also margin of error to factor in.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trafalgar had a C- prior to 2020 and now has an A- which is weird since they got like every 2020 swing state wrong.

Yup. If Trafalgar is showing Warnock +2, it probably means he will win +4. Trafalgar has a consistent 2-4 point bias toward the Republican candidate in individual races.

That's OK - vast majority of pollsters end up having a slight and reliable partisan bias in their polling model. That just reflects the choices made by the pollster writing their poll, collecting their sample, and weighing their sample.

They aren't showing Warnock +2 They have Walker up +2.

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/insider-advantage-gasen2021-poll/

Ok, so then it's a dead heat. Which is basically what the polling has been saying for the last month or two.

A dead heat with Walker down one or two is very different from a dead heat with Walker up two.

But what if only one poll has Walker up two? Because that’s what’s happening here.

It's the latest poll, and it's in line with the general trend across the country. A bunch of people defensively argued that the NYT poll that showed generic congressional vote preference to R+4 was "just one poll" (Joan Walsh wrote a whole article dismissing it) right up until two days later when Monmouth came out with R+6.

[Anonymous]

Class. ducking. act.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Class. ducking. act.

<3

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trafalgar had a C- prior to 2020 and now has an A- which is weird since they got like every 2020 swing state wrong.

Yup. If Trafalgar is showing Warnock +2, it probably means he will win +4. Trafalgar has a consistent 2-4 point bias toward the Republican candidate in individual races.

That's OK - vast majority of pollsters end up having a slight and reliable partisan bias in their polling model. That just reflects the choices made by the pollster writing their poll, collecting their sample, and weighing their sample.

They aren't showing Warnock +2 They have Walker up +2.

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/insider-advantage-gasen2021-poll/

Ok, so then it's a dead heat. Which is basically what the polling has been saying for the last month or two.

A dead heat with Walker down one or two is very different from a dead heat with Walker up two.

But what if only one poll has Walker up two? Because that’s what’s happening here.

It's the latest poll, and it's in line with the general trend across the country. A bunch of people defensively argued that the NYT poll that showed generic congressional vote preference to R+4 was "just one poll" (Joan Walsh wrote a whole article dismissing it) right up until two days later when Monmouth came out with R+6.

Now this is the latest poll.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Well, sh*t. That’s different from the narrative the GOP is driving.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

I guess that's interesting, but in 2018 it had not yet become Republican orthodoxy that any kind of voting other than election day in-person voting was evil and fraudulent.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I guess that's interesting, but in 2018 it had not yet become Republican orthodoxy that any kind of voting other than election day in-person voting was evil and fraudulent.

I think it had. They had been smearing mail in ballots and early voting for quite a while by 2018.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I guess that's interesting, but in 2018 it had not yet become Republican orthodoxy that any kind of voting other than election day in-person voting was evil and fraudulent.

I think it had. They had been smearing mail in ballots and early voting for quite a while by 2018.

Really? I didn't hear it until 2020, but maybe I missed it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I guess that's interesting, but in 2018 it had not yet become Republican orthodoxy that any kind of voting other than election day in-person voting was evil and fraudulent.

I think it had. They had been smearing mail in ballots and early voting for quite a while by 2018.

Really? I didn't hear it until 2020, but maybe I missed it.

DP here. This was just one of many complaints about mail-in and provisional ballot counting. Before March 2020, mail-in voting was only a minor grievance and the Republicans were already trying to discourage and eliminate mail-in voting. They wanted proof that the voter would be out of the state to get a mail-in ballot, etc. Then the pandemic hit and it became a major political battle. That's when you heard about it. Before that, it was more of a page 6 type complaint. Then in 2020, it became front page news.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/29/california-2018-midterm-elections-results-voting-republicans-1031072

By CARLA MARINUCCI
11/29/2018 07:40 PM EST

[...]

Ryan’s comments about a state’s elections process put him in league with some prominent California Republicans who have recently expressed befuddlement — and anger — about the series of GOP incumbents whose defeats came after officials completed the tallies of millions of absentee and provisional ballots.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I guess that's interesting, but in 2018 it had not yet become Republican orthodoxy that any kind of voting other than election day in-person voting was evil and fraudulent.

I think it had. They had been smearing mail in ballots and early voting for quite a while by 2018.

Really? I didn't hear it until 2020, but maybe I missed it.

DP here. This was just one of many complaints about mail-in and provisional ballot counting. Before March 2020, mail-in voting was only a minor grievance and the Republicans were already trying to discourage and eliminate mail-in voting. They wanted proof that the voter would be out of the state to get a mail-in ballot, etc. Then the pandemic hit and it became a major political battle. That's when you heard about it. Before that, it was more of a page 6 type complaint. Then in 2020, it became front page news.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/29/california-2018-midterm-elections-results-voting-republicans-1031072

By CARLA MARINUCCI
11/29/2018 07:40 PM EST

[...]

Ryan’s comments about a state’s elections process put him in league with some prominent California Republicans who have recently expressed befuddlement — and anger — about the series of GOP incumbents whose defeats came after officials completed the tallies of millions of absentee and provisional ballots.

I’m the PP who said the mail in vote obsession predates 2018 and I’ve got the kind of relatives who have viewed absentee and mail in and early voting with deep disgust and anger (which is pretty much how they approach everything in their lives).