The Toll Bros. development is 102 single-family houses. |
+1 |
Wow, look in the mirror. You have no idea who is posting here, or how often. And your entire post is utter projection. Do better. |
| Tysons will overcrowd Marshall with all the new development. I would guess Marshall kids could be moved to McLean, McLean kids to Langley, Langley kids to Herndon. |
Back in the day, FCPS had a formula to predict number of kids. I'm guessing 50-75 max. and probably less. Any kids won't all be in high school at the same time |
Shhhh. This possibility is too logical and will incite the wrath of the sniper from the other thread. Best to treat the school on the northern edge of the county as of it didn’t exist. If Marshall and McLean get overcrowded, FCPS will need another solution. |
It's also possible that Marshall kids in Vienna would get moved to Madison, which had slightly over 2200 kids last year (which included over 100 students transfers from other pyramids) but is being expanded to 2500 seats. There isn't nearly as much development in Vienna as in Tysons so Madison might have room. |
From what I can tell, the last yield formula published by FCPS was from about 5-6 years ago and predicted that 100 new single-family houses would yield roughly 18 high school students at any point in time. They may have updated the formula since then. I don't know how rigorously they were validated; they were mostly used to solicit proffers from developers. As for kids coming to Langley from McLean, that number is also below 20 this year. Rising 9th graders had the option to pick between McLean and Langley, and most decided to stay with their middle school peers from Longfellow at McLean rather than reunite with their elementary school peers from Colvin Run and Spring Hill at Langley. The numbers will go up starting in the fall of 2022, as students in the redistricted neighborhoods will no longer have an option to attend either school. |
so in 10 years there may 50 more kids in the HS |
Do you mean just from that one development? The Langley/McLean boundary change is supposed to add approximately 190 more kids to Langley, once fully phased in, and Langley will also pick up dozens more kids from Cooper who in the past would have gone to TJ but will be attending Langley in the future due to the TJ admissions changes. |
True. More children who won't get into TJ will be going to their zoned school, and a fair number used to come from Langley if I am recalling it right. |
It’s not just that. It’s also the families that will now decide the sure thing of a Langley is a better bet than taking a chance on an increasingly subjective admissions process at TJ. |
Some Langley/Great Falls kids could be moved to south lakes as well. Some Great Falls kids used to go there in the 80’s too. |
They tried that during the 2008 redistricting. Janie wouldn't let them. |
I don't know much about past admissions but getting into TJ was never a guarantee. I know someone with a superstar kid who didn't get in and went on to great success at South Lakes. Though, I suppose there were people in the past who did the math and decided to "gamble" on a "lesser" pyramid figuring their kid would make it in to TJ and they could save commute time/money. |