Are privates that don’t offer merit aid still enrolling the best students?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My kid is turning down an Ivy that’s $85k/year for a full ride at a flagship. According to my kid, they are far from the only one of their classmates making such a decision. Kids talk.

What are the consequences to this as the years go on & so many top students can’t afford elite privates?

It is an intriguing question. The demographics at the elite colleges have changed significantly in the last 20 years and what are the long term implications of this?

There were already kids turning down Ivies for full rides at state universities or just attending a much cheaper flagship honors program in the past. But I can easily see how this would be far more kids now than 20 years ago due to the rise of the donut hole families. I do think that Ivy prestige has steadily weakened over time, they no longer have the perceived lock on the best and brightest, especially as the professional classes now really understands the cost/benefit analysis, and also that Ivy admission is hardly meritocratic and is based on very different factors that have little to do with achievement. And others are less impressed by the behaviors and attitudes of elite college grads, fair or not, especially with cancel culture and the growth of rigid ideological outlooks that these schools have embraced (with some exceptions, like Chicago). Then we do have that there are many more best and brightest chasing after a limited number of spots, which actually means they end up being dispersed among a wider range of schools.

All in all, I am no longer "impressed" when I see an elite college decal on a car. I do think nice kid, bit lucky, and not much more than that. When evaluating candidates, if I notice their college on the resumes, I don't give weight to elite college grads over lesser college grads once above a certain threshold. What they actually did is much more important, along with impression in the interviews. Having said that, the Ivies will still produce genuinely impressive graduates who go on to achieve great things, but this is probably no more than 1/4 - 1/3 of their student body, with the rest not really meaningfully different from comparable students at UVA or College Park or Vanderbilt or whatever.

Where did you get your 1/4-1/3 stat?

FWIW, people have been turning down Ivies due to cost for more than 20 years. This isn't a new phenomenon.

The gulf in price between Ivies & state schools has exploded over the past 20 years. Lots of state schools have frozen tuition or let you lock in your tuition for all four years the year you enroll.

Yeah, but there were still kids with middle class parents turning down the Ivies in the '80s because the parents couldn't afford that tuition. The group may be larger now than then, but this isn't new though may be to you.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My kid is turning down an Ivy that’s $85k/year for a full ride at a flagship. According to my kid, they are far from the only one of their classmates making such a decision. Kids talk.

What are the consequences to this as the years go on & so many top students can’t afford elite privates?

Haven't you been reading these boards? There are more than enough bright students to go around.

One outcome may be that parents will learn how to save, starting at birth, instead of depending on the overpayment and generosity of others to fund their merit aid pools. Perhaps also have a family size you can afford the education of.

It’s all fun & games until there’s nobody left to teach your kid, wipe your butt in the nursing home, bag your groceries, clean your teeth or bus your kid.

Be careful what you wish for.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My kid is turning down an Ivy that’s $85k/year for a full ride at a flagship. According to my kid, they are far from the only one of their classmates making such a decision. Kids talk.

What are the consequences to this as the years go on & so many top students can’t afford elite privates?

Haven't you been reading these boards? There are more than enough bright students to go around.

One outcome may be that parents will learn how to save, starting at birth, instead of depending on the overpayment and generosity of others to fund their merit aid pools. Perhaps also have a family size you can afford the education of.

Literally no other country on Earth operates like that.

You have no idea how poorly traveled you sound saying something as ignorant as this.

Maybe in a village in rural India. Is that what we want to strive for?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My kid is turning down an Ivy that’s $85k/year for a full ride at a flagship. According to my kid, they are far from the only one of their classmates making such a decision. Kids talk.

What are the consequences to this as the years go on & so many top students can’t afford elite privates?

Haven't you been reading these boards? There are more than enough bright students to go around.

One outcome may be that parents will learn how to save, starting at birth, instead of depending on the overpayment and generosity of others to fund their merit aid pools. Perhaps also have a family size you can afford the education of.

Classist much? Hopefully you’ve taught your kid to be better than that.

[Anonymous]

To answer OP’s question, schools that offer merit aid will outperform in an environment where full retail price has become borderline ridiculous even for those who can afford it. They will get the best and the brightest and eventually become the schools with the strongest student bodies (which will even attract students who are indifferent to cost). Need blind financial aid will be a problem esp for schools below the Ivy tier. Merit aid schools will scoop up all those super qualified donut hole kids (whose numbers grow every year). Smart need blind schools will start initiating merit aid programs fast.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My kid is turning down an Ivy that’s $85k/year for a full ride at a flagship. According to my kid, they are far from the only one of their classmates making such a decision. Kids talk.

What are the consequences to this as the years go on & so many top students can’t afford elite privates?

Haven't you been reading these boards? There are more than enough bright students to go around.

One outcome may be that parents will learn how to save, starting at birth, instead of depending on the overpayment and generosity of others to fund their merit aid pools. Perhaps also have a family size you can afford the education of.

It’s all fun & games until there’s nobody left to teach your kid, wipe your butt in the nursing home, bag your groceries, clean your teeth or bus your kid.

Be careful what you wish for.

Right???

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My kid is turning down an Ivy that’s $85k/year for a full ride at a flagship. According to my kid, they are far from the only one of their classmates making such a decision. Kids talk.

What are the consequences to this as the years go on & so many top students can’t afford elite privates?

Haven't you been reading these boards? There are more than enough bright students to go around.

One outcome may be that parents will learn how to save, starting at birth, instead of depending on the overpayment and generosity of others to fund their merit aid pools. Perhaps also have a family size you can afford the education of.

Literally no other country on Earth operates like that.

You have no idea how poorly traveled you sound saying something as ignorant as this.

Maybe in a village in rural India. Is that what we want to strive for?

Stop embarrassing yourself.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:To answer OP’s question, schools that offer merit aid will outperform in an environment where full retail price has become borderline ridiculous even for those who can afford it. They will get the best and the brightest and eventually become the schools with the strongest student bodies (which will even attract students who are indifferent to cost). Need blind financial aid will be a problem esp for schools below the Ivy tier. Merit aid schools will scoop up all those super qualified donut hole kids (whose numbers grow every year). Smart need blind schools will start initiating merit aid programs fast.

It was good to see F&M make that switch this year. Would like to see it next tier up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:To answer OP’s question, schools that offer merit aid will outperform in an environment where full retail price has become borderline ridiculous even for those who can afford it. They will get the best and the brightest and eventually become the schools with the strongest student bodies (which will even attract students who are indifferent to cost). Need blind financial aid will be a problem esp for schools below the Ivy tier. Merit aid schools will scoop up all those super qualified donut hole kids (whose numbers grow every year). Smart need blind schools will start initiating merit aid programs fast.

It was good to see F&M make that switch this year. Would like to see it next tier up.

+1 schools that are need-only end up with a barbell distribution of just wealthy and poor students, not ideal for a student body. DD applied to a couple LACs that explicitly said they offer a range of financial aid because they don't what that barbell population.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:To answer OP’s question, schools that offer merit aid will outperform in an environment where full retail price has become borderline ridiculous even for those who can afford it. They will get the best and the brightest and eventually become the schools with the strongest student bodies (which will even attract students who are indifferent to cost). Need blind financial aid will be a problem esp for schools below the Ivy tier. Merit aid schools will scoop up all those super qualified donut hole kids (whose numbers grow every year). Smart need blind schools will start initiating merit aid programs fast.

It was good to see F&M make that switch this year. Would like to see it next tier up.

+1 schools that are need-only end up with a barbell distribution of just wealthy and poor students, not ideal for a student body. DD applied to a couple LACs that explicitly said they offer a range of financial aid because they don't what that barbell population.

This is a school like Trinity now. Who attends? Kids who get need based aid and the underperforming offspring of Wall Street dads who are willing to pay up for whatever sliver of prestige their lazy/distracted kid can possibly obtain

[Anonymous]

I’ve thought about this too. I think the $85k a year schools must have such a strange assortment of socioeconomic backgrounds at this point. 50% mega wealthy, 25% with mega wealthy grandparents, and 25% financial aid students. This is not diversity in background or perspective.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My kid is turning down an Ivy that’s $85k/year for a full ride at a flagship. According to my kid, they are far from the only one of their classmates making such a decision. Kids talk.

What are the consequences to this as the years go on & so many top students can’t afford elite privates?

It is an intriguing question. The demographics at the elite colleges have changed significantly in the last 20 years and what are the long term implications of this?

There were already kids turning down Ivies for full rides at state universities or just attending a much cheaper flagship honors program in the past. But I can easily see how this would be far more kids now than 20 years ago due to the rise of the donut hole families. I do think that Ivy prestige has steadily weakened over time, they no longer have the perceived lock on the best and brightest, especially as the professional classes now really understands the cost/benefit analysis, and also that Ivy admission is hardly meritocratic and is based on very different factors that have little to do with achievement. And others are less impressed by the behaviors and attitudes of elite college grads, fair or not, especially with cancel culture and the growth of rigid ideological outlooks that these schools have embraced (with some exceptions, like Chicago). Then we do have that there are many more best and brightest chasing after a limited number of spots, which actually means they end up being dispersed among a wider range of schools.

All in all, I am no longer "impressed" when I see an elite college decal on a car. I do think nice kid, bit lucky, and not much more than that. When evaluating candidates, if I notice their college on the resumes, I don't give weight to elite college grads over lesser college grads once above a certain threshold. What they actually did is much more important, along with impression in the interviews. Having said that, the Ivies will still produce genuinely impressive graduates who go on to achieve great things, but this is probably no more than 1/4 - 1/3 of their student body, with the rest not really meaningfully different from comparable students at UVA or College Park or Vanderbilt or whatever.

Where did you get your 1/4-1/3 stat?

FWIW, people have been turning down Ivies due to cost for more than 20 years. This isn't a new phenomenon.

The gulf in price between Ivies & state schools has exploded over the past 20 years. Lots of state schools have frozen tuition or let you lock in your tuition for all four years the year you enroll.

Yeah, but there were still kids with middle class parents turning down the Ivies in the '80s because the parents couldn't afford that tuition. The group may be larger now than then, but this isn't new though may be to you.

True. My brother and I were among them. Also most of the top students at my middle class suburban high school didn't even bother applying to schools they knew they couldn't afford because even the application fee was too much to pay for a lottery ticket.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I’ve thought about this too. I think the $85k a year schools must have such a strange assortment of socioeconomic backgrounds at this point. 50% mega wealthy, 25% with mega wealthy grandparents, and 25% financial aid students. This is not diversity in background or perspective.

It’s more like 55 wealthy/45 below 120k in family income. With the Ivy League schools and peers, maybe you get some lower income donut hole families who push the envelope on their family finances for that fancy degree. Perhaps 10 pct of students. You probably don’t see as much pushing of the envelope at second tier schools among the donut hole class.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Harvard’s freshman retention rate now mirrors Auburn’s.

Years ago, the top students went to top privates. Tuition wasn’t crazy even if you were full pay. Most state flagships & privates (incl. UMD, Tulane, UMiami, UMass Amherst) were for slackers & partiers.

Harvard's retention rate dropped steeply during Covid (2020-21) because so many kids took a leave of absence (under the college's very generous policy) or were international students. Please understand random statistics before throwing them around to prove an unrelated point.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:To answer OP’s question, schools that offer merit aid will outperform in an environment where full retail price has become borderline ridiculous even for those who can afford it. They will get the best and the brightest and eventually become the schools with the strongest student bodies (which will even attract students who are indifferent to cost). Need blind financial aid will be a problem esp for schools below the Ivy tier. Merit aid schools will scoop up all those super qualified donut hole kids (whose numbers grow every year). Smart need blind schools will start initiating merit aid programs fast.

It was good to see F&M make that switch this year. Would like to see it next tier up.

Did they? Good for them. Last year it was the only school that did not offer DC a dime. It made the decision to turn it down easier for sure.