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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Whether you are an armchair Eurasian politics follower or a seasoned expert, what would your crystal ball say to you about the state of Russia in ten years, January 2033?

I studied Russian politics for a while but that was a long time ago, and I'd more or less call myself an armchair follower right now and heavily biased by Western sources. What concerns me most is that Russia seemingly [b]will not accept[/b] a weakened status, and that's why many people in Western Europe, while morally supporting Ukraine, are wary of the Ukrainians and Americans trying to not just beat back Russia but stick Putin's nose in the mess are provoking things too far. Also, it seems that we best be careful what we wish for in wanting Putin's demise, because we don't know who would come next and whether they would be worse. It's hard to imagine worse than Putin, but imagine someone temperamentally more like Kadyrov would be terrifying.

So what do you think Russia looks like in the 2030s? Out of these scenarios in no particular order of likelihood or far-fetchedness:

A. Putin's revanchist dream, a reconsolidated federation with additional territories and expanded sphere of influence?
B.The best case for the West, a democracy more or less that plays by international rules?
C. A brain-drained backwater, full of chaos and corruption and no economy because everyone has left or died? 
D. A version of C above, but held somewhat on life support with investment from China
E. Civil war and dangerous domestic instability, with people like Kadyrov going completely unhinged (and not just on Tiktok) 
F. The dream scenario of my Ukrainian friends, which is a defeated and diminished country that undergoes a secondary USSR-style breakup, with Moscow losing its centralized power and territories breaking away now that they no longer have financial support
G. Something in the middle but positive, another reset button like 2009, with at least a temporary halt on territory grabs and for a while someone more moderate than Putin, though not exactly friendly.

These are the scenarios I have thought of, [b]not including World War Three[/b]. I'm interested in what people here might think since it's DC and everyone likes to have an opinion but you don't have to be accountable for it because it's anonymous.

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WWIII is the main concern for most people who haven't lost their marbles.  At this point being so close to targeted objects wouldn't give me much comfort, so I am surprised how few in DC metro are afraid of this scenario.  What becomes of the other half of the world (while very important) isn't nearly as relevant as trying to figure out where one must escape during Nuclear attack and subsequent fallout.  And it may not be nuclear, there are chemical/bio weapons that can completely destroy continents.  A deadlier pandemic with the virus with 80% mortality rate will wipe out not only most people but entire infrastructure and leaving only hellscape behind that none of you would want to live in and where the living will envy the dead. [/quote]

If DC gets hit with a nuke I get vaporized.  It is what it is.  Doesn't keep me up at night.[/quote]

Makes sense, we are so close that we will get vaporized and probably feel nothing.  We also will be the envy of those who would survive and die of injuries in extreme pain or have gradual demise from slower radiation poisoning, or have to deal with the horrors of survival in the post apocalyptic hellscape. [/quote]

There are different types of warfare that can make life a living hell, it's unlikely cities will be vaporized.  Obviously we won't be having Russian troops deploy to our shores.  They can attack us in much more insidious ways, but I seriously doubt they'd be dropping nukes on our major cities unless they want their entire country vaporized.  Still being around major metro areas like DC or NYC or SF doesn't give me comfort. [/quote]

Their vaunted cyber warriors have been relegated to hijacking URLs. They were supposed to cripple Ukrainian communications at the onset of the war and got nowhere [/quote]

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