FCPS Ready to Screw Poorer/GenEd Kids Again

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It doesn't "hurt" them. It's just reveals what they actually are at the ms level (to some extent).

It may "hurt" the image of LJ. But the image was false up to this point if anyone was using LJ's reputation to assess the desirability of the pyramid.

The white and asian students at the MS are high performers (on SOLs) and that remains true at the HS level (even though their proportional representation in the schools change from MS to HS with the loss of the OHS and JMHS kids). They aren't "hurt" b/c they still have the same teachers and programs at the MS level.

The Great Schools rating may take a hit. Housing values *may* take a hit (only if you assume that the housing values are influenced by the MS. I would argue that housing values are mainly affected by the HS pyramid -- which will not change).

So, no. I do not agree that Falls Church pyramid familes/kids at LJ will be "hurt" by this move. Only their egos. But the underlying skill sets/achievements will be the same.

Again, just about everything you assert here is contradicted by social science research, including research previously reviewed and cited by FCPS, which finds that student achievement starts to decline across the board when the poverty rates creep much above 40-45%.

There are lots of split feeders in FCPS. Jackson has been a split feeder to both Falls Church and Oakton for years, just as Thoreau has been a split feeder to Madison and Marshall. Turning Jackson exclusively into a Falls Church feeder and Thoreau into a three-way split feeder to Madison, Marshall, and Oakton makes no sense, especially when it will drive up poverty levels at Jackson and FCPS could explore other options that would leave Jackson a split feeder to both Falls Church and Oakton. It is an accommodation to Oakton/Vienna families who simply want to see their own real estate values increase, even if it's due to the resegregation of a middle school that, ironically, was originally built as a segregated high school for AAs.

In what document of research did FCPS find student achievement starts to decline at rates of 40-45%?

See the reference to the tipping point study below:

https://www.fcps.edu/node/32975

It was also discussed in this thread:

http://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/545701.page

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Weird they mixed falls Church and Oakton. Should just be falls Church. The area is low performers, true colors come through when they remove the odd zoned Oakton areas

Thanks for the statement. I will be sure to send this to Pat Hynes and Dalia Palchik if they vote on the proposal to let them know who they supported.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It might benefit from some more Asians, but it's also a very wealthy school and could use some diversity of income.

And they will get that from this rezoning. MWES is a very diverse school with a substantial FARMS rate (probably at least 35%). The AAP center part of MWES hides the true farms rate of the population that goes to LJMS (i.e. the base school).

Yes, but that is offset by the fact that Oakton ES has a lower FARMS percentage than Thoreau today (and, of course, a much lower percentage than Jackson as a whole).

Not really. The portion of OES that is involved is only half of the school (or less). The portion of MWES that is involved, is the whole school. So, let's say the offset of OES brings the FARMS rate down from 35% to 25%. That's still adding economic diversity to TMS.

[Anonymous]

See the reference to the tipping point study below:

https://www.fcps.edu/node/32975

Where on this link?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It might benefit from some more Asians, but it's also a very wealthy school and could use some diversity of income.

And they will get that from this rezoning. MWES is a very diverse school with a substantial FARMS rate (probably at least 35%). The AAP center part of MWES hides the true farms rate of the population that goes to LJMS (i.e. the base school).

Yes, but that is offset by the fact that Oakton ES has a lower FARMS percentage than Thoreau today (and, of course, a much lower percentage than Jackson as a whole).

Not really. The portion of OES that is involved is only half of the school (or less). The portion of MWES that is involved, is the whole school. So, let's say the offset of OES brings the FARMS rate down from 35% to 25%. That's still adding economic diversity to TMS.

You’re grasping at straws here, since you don’t know the FARMS rate of the students who are in-boundary for MWES as opposed to for the students from the four other schools that send AAP kids there. It is fairly obvious from the overall rate of 22% for the school that pulling them as well as Oakton out of Jackson, a 40% FARMS School, will increase the FARMS percentages there.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It might benefit from some more Asians, but it's also a very wealthy school and could use some diversity of income.

And they will get that from this rezoning. MWES is a very diverse school with a substantial FARMS rate (probably at least 35%). The AAP center part of MWES hides the true farms rate of the population that goes to LJMS (i.e. the base school).

Here are the F/R lunch numbers for the schools involved:

FCPS Website F/R Lunch Numbers (2016-2017)

Marshall Road Elem - 24.87%
Oakton Elem - 7.72%
Mosby Woods Elem - 25.07 - (not at least 35% as was stated above)
Camelot Elem - 35.02%
Fairhill Elem - 27.02%
Graham Road Elem - 83.68%
Pine Spring Elem - 63.67%
Westlawn Elem - 70.02%
Woodburn Elem - 65.70%

Thoreau MS - 10.12%
Jackson MS - 43.52%

Fall Church HS - 55.97%

Three elementaries with the lowest F/R rates are being moved out of Jackson.

I think what some people in this county fail to realize is that more and more of the county is becoming a no go zone for UMC (or MC) families that focus on education. It is not just about this one boundary change. It has happened several times in the last 15 years in the eastern and southeastern section of the county (see Lee and Annandale as examples). If Jackson has been decent the last several years this may be the change that turns the tide toward the negative. If the school slips in the next couple of years then families who were starting to see Jackson / Falls Church as a viable option may move elsewhere - and this starts a downward spiral. It will probably have the biggest impact at the two least poor elementary feeders, Fairhill and Camelot. Families at those two schools will be the ones to notice that they have been left holding up Jackson and Falls Church.

Another thing to watch for - what are the numbers of students in AAP at Jackson that come from Oakton, Mosby Woods, and Marshall Road? Do they make up a significant percentage? Thoreau offers AAP Level IV services - if many of those AAP students choose to stay at Thoreau for the local services, what will the effect be on the Jackson AAP program? Did FCPS make this information available? To me it seems FCPS has left a lot of information out of this decision. It may come back to bite them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It might benefit from some more Asians, but it's also a very wealthy school and could use some diversity of income.

And they will get that from this rezoning. MWES is a very diverse school with a substantial FARMS rate (probably at least 35%). The AAP center part of MWES hides the true farms rate of the population that goes to LJMS (i.e. the base school).

Here are the F/R lunch numbers for the schools involved:

FCPS Website F/R Lunch Numbers (2016-2017)

Marshall Road Elem - 24.87%
Oakton Elem - 7.72%
Mosby Woods Elem - 25.07 - (not at least 35% as was stated above)
Camelot Elem - 35.02%
Fairhill Elem - 27.02%
Graham Road Elem - 83.68%
Pine Spring Elem - 63.67%
Westlawn Elem - 70.02%
Woodburn Elem - 65.70%

Thoreau MS - 10.12%
Jackson MS - 43.52%

Fall Church HS - 55.97%

Three elementaries with the lowest F/R rates are being moved out of Jackson.

I think what some people in this county fail to realize is that more and more of the county is becoming a no go zone for UMC (or MC) families that focus on education. It is not just about this one boundary change. It has happened several times in the last 15 years in the eastern and southeastern section of the county (see Lee and Annandale as examples). If Jackson has been decent the last several years this may be the change that turns the tide toward the negative. If the school slips in the next couple of years then families who were starting to see Jackson / Falls Church as a viable option may move elsewhere - and this starts a downward spiral. It will probably have the biggest impact at the two least poor elementary feeders, Fairhill and Camelot. Families at those two schools will be the ones to notice that they have been left holding up Jackson and Falls Church.

Another thing to watch for - what are the numbers of students in AAP at Jackson that come from Oakton, Mosby Woods, and Marshall Road? Do they make up a significant percentage? Thoreau offers AAP Level IV services - if many of those AAP students choose to stay at Thoreau for the local services, what will the effect be on the Jackson AAP program? Did FCPS make this information available? To me it seems FCPS has left a lot of information out of this decision. It may come back to bite them.

Exactly. If FCPS wants to self-inflict additional wounds, they should at least provide enough information and engage in sufficient analysis to let us all know that they are doing on purpose. The feeble efforts by PP to suggest that it’s all good because it might increase the diversity at Thoreau by a percentage point or two are ignoring the bigger picture.

[Anonymous]

Do you know Mosby? I do. The 25% published rate (as I clearly indicated) is falsely low due to the AAP center being in the school. The AAP part of the school has less FARMS kids and many of them are not part of the base school. Mosby's AAP center feeds into 5 middle schools (Frost, Jackson, Lanier, Rocky Run and Thoreau).

The base school population of FARMS is definitely higher than 25%. I don't know the exact #. It could be 35%. It could be 40%. I wouldn't expect that it is higher than that. But it is definitely a "mixed" SES school. It's not 25%.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Weird they mixed falls Church and Oakton. Should just be falls Church. The area is low performers, true colors come through when they remove the odd zoned Oakton areas

Thanks for the statement. I will be sure to send this to Pat Hynes and Dalia Palchik if they vote on the proposal to let them know who they supported.

Most of the families in falls Church high zone can't vote because of illegal status.

[Anonymous]

All this ranting and raving. Too late. Look at the map. This ship has sailed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Do you know Mosby? I do. The 25% published rate (as I clearly indicated) is falsely low due to the AAP center being in the school. The AAP part of the school has less FARMS kids and many of them are not part of the base school. Mosby's AAP center feeds into 5 middle schools (Frost, Jackson, Lanier, Rocky Run and Thoreau).

The base school population of FARMS is definitely higher than 25%. I don't know the exact #. It could be 35%. It could be 40%. I wouldn't expect that it is higher than that. But it is definitely a "mixed" SES school. It's not 25%.

I think this just points out further that a complete analysis either has not been done on the effects of this boundary change or they do not want to make it public. What are the F/R lunch numbers for the students moving out of and staying in Jackson? It is pretty clear that the Jackson F/R lunch rate will go up and that will not be good for the school since it is already beyond the tipping point.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:All this ranting and raving. Too late. Look at the map. This ship has sailed.

To claim that the ship has sailed is simply to reiterate the process has been deeply flawed.

Many valid questions have been asked. It’s a shame they aren’t being asked by School Board members, including those endorsed by the FCDC. There will be consequences if they approve this proposal in its current form.

[Anonymous]

I made Pat and Dahlia aware of the potential demographic impacts back in June of 2017 and they were made aware of impacts by FCPS earlier. They should have by now fully researched the potential issues associated with this redistricting.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I made Pat and Dahlia aware of the potential demographic impacts back in June of 2017 and they were made aware of impacts by FCPS earlier. They should have by now fully researched the potential issues associated with this redistricting.

Back in 2011, when FCPS moved higher-income kids out of Annandale to Woodson and Edison, some Board members arguably could be excused for not correctly anticipating the negative impact this would have on Poe (affected by the Woodson and prior shifts) and Annandale (affected by all of them). Pat and Dahlia have no such excuse today.

[Anonymous]

What excuse did people have in 2011? Gee I wonder what will happen if I move these huge well established single family neighborhoods out of a suffering district?