Move TSP to G for a bit?

[Anonymous]

I did time it pretty well, and, guess what, I am not jumping back in the market this week, even with apparent “good news” and oil dropping in pre-market today and everyone feeling more optimistic. I still think Friday’s job report will suck and I am just not comfortable overall that we haven’t beat our word and the sustained downturn is still on for the foreseeable future. Yep. I’m a skeptical bear. I’m gonna sit on my azz in the G fund (which hasn’t lost any value in the last month) and just keep fence sitting until I feel comfortable about jumping in and that we won’t see more massive dumps coming or a big recession. Granted I am still having my contributions go to C and I fund, but my actual cash load is sitting in G fund waiting until I feel comfortable about buying a sht ton more of C or I fund stocks at a bigger discount. I have a feeling retail is exuberant to buy right now but the market makers always know better. So yeah talk all the sht you want about my market timing. I dgaf. It’s paid off so far. I think we are headed for bad economic times because of tariffs, jobs, all this world tumult and so forth and if you want to keep buying now, when I think we will see more bigger, market drops on the horizon, go for it.

[Anonymous]

OP - honest question - how old are you? Do you really think you can do this for the next X years? If you are very young, why the hell do you care about a couple % fluctuation over several weeks. If you are older, you shouldn't be so exposed to equities anyways.

It would appear you are grossly over estimating your ability to read the markets if you are 25 or 65. Take this as a warning, you won't win this over any extended period of time. You can't see this, but the posters here aren't jealous, they're actually trying to help you from making a real mistake with your retirement funds.

[Anonymous]

Op here. I am so fking glad I stayed in G. Market is going to drill tomorrow and I will be safely ensconced in the G fund. I may actually move some funds into I when it’s down like 500 points or whatever tomorrow. Either way, couldn’t you people tell we are on a downward trend? Can’t you understand how market drops work? I will be able to buy so many more shares of cheap stocks now than you folks who just stayed in C or whatever.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP - honest question - how old are you? Do you really think you can do this for the next X years? If you are very young, why the hell do you care about a couple % fluctuation over several weeks. If you are older, you shouldn't be so exposed to equities anyways.

It would appear you are grossly over estimating your ability to read the markets if you are 25 or 65. Take this as a warning, you won't win this over any extended period of time. You can't see this, but the posters here aren't jealous, they're actually trying to help you from making a real mistake with your retirement funds.

You're in for a rude awakening buddy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Op here. I am so fking glad I stayed in G. Market is going to drill tomorrow and I will be safely ensconced in the G fund. I may actually move some funds into I when it’s down like 500 points or whatever tomorrow. Either way, couldn’t you people tell we are on a downward trend? Can’t you understand how market drops work? I will be able to buy so many more shares of cheap stocks now than you folks who just stayed in C or whatever.

This has to be a bit. We’re down like 3.5% on the year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Op here. I am so fking glad I stayed in G. Market is going to drill tomorrow and I will be safely ensconced in the G fund. I may actually move some funds into I when it’s down like 500 points or whatever tomorrow. Either way, couldn’t you people tell we are on a downward trend? Can’t you understand how market drops work? I will be able to buy so many more shares of cheap stocks now than you folks who just stayed in C or whatever.

This has to be a bit. We’re down like 3.5% on the year.

You simply don’t get it. We are going to have a global depression because of oil prices. Also, did you watch the address tonight? Prob not. You really have no fking clue do you? Our stock market has so much further to fall. Go watch Fox News and stay out of the financial forum. You have no clue what’s going on.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Op here. I am so fking glad I stayed in G. Market is going to drill tomorrow and I will be safely ensconced in the G fund. I may actually move some funds into I when it’s down like 500 points or whatever tomorrow. Either way, couldn’t you people tell we are on a downward trend? Can’t you understand how market drops work? I will be able to buy so many more shares of cheap stocks now than you folks who just stayed in C or whatever.

This has to be a bit. We’re down like 3.5% on the year.

You simply don’t get it. We are going to have a global depression because of oil prices. Also, did you watch the address tonight? Prob not. You really have no fking clue do you? Our stock market has so much further to fall. Go watch Fox News and stay out of the financial forum. You have no clue what’s going on.

Ignore the PP. There's some stiuations where return of capital is more important than return on capital. This is one of them. Already the largest energy shock in our lifetime with no end in sight at a time when stocks are at all time high P/E values. And dude still thinks this is a garden variety correction.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Op here. I am so fking glad I stayed in G. Market is going to drill tomorrow and I will be safely ensconced in the G fund. I may actually move some funds into I when it’s down like 500 points or whatever tomorrow. Either way, couldn’t you people tell we are on a downward trend? Can’t you understand how market drops work? I will be able to buy so many more shares of cheap stocks now than you folks who just stayed in C or whatever.

This has to be a bit. We’re down like 3.5% on the year.

You simply don’t get it. We are going to have a global depression because of oil prices. Also, did you watch the address tonight? Prob not. You really have no fking clue do you? Our stock market has so much further to fall. Go watch Fox News and stay out of the financial forum. You have no clue what’s going on.

Ignore the PP. There's some stiuations where return of capital is more important than return on capital. This is one of them. Already the largest energy shock in our lifetime with no end in sight at a time when stocks are at all time high P/E values. And dude still thinks this is a garden variety correction.

And by ignore PP, I meant ignore the person you were responding to.

[Anonymous]

Op here. Yeah, super bearish on just everythin today. I am 100% waiting things out before moving G back to C or I. I really want these permabulls on here explain to me how I was an idiot 4 weeks ago moving to G. Explain how stupid it was to avoid a 15% market drop in I fund since moving. The drop is still going. I bet by next week it’ll be down again. I am honestly tempted to buy and hold some 2x and 3x leveraged ETFs like JETD or sqqq right now in taxable brokerage for a bit.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Op here. Yeah, super bearish on just everythin today. I am 100% waiting things out before moving G back to C or I. I really want these permabulls on here explain to me how I was an idiot 4 weeks ago moving to G. Explain how stupid it was to avoid a 15% market drop in I fund since moving. The drop is still going. I bet by next week it’ll be down again. I am honestly tempted to buy and hold some 2x and 3x leveraged ETFs like JETD or sqqq right now in taxable brokerage for a bit.

Probably because it’s dumb to be in I over C generally.

Sounds like a well-reasoned plan. I’m sure it will work out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Op here. Yeah, super bearish on just everythin today. I am 100% waiting things out before moving G back to C or I. I really want these permabulls on here explain to me how I was an idiot 4 weeks ago moving to G. Explain how stupid it was to avoid a 15% market drop in I fund since moving. The drop is still going. I bet by next week it’ll be down again. I am honestly tempted to buy and hold some 2x and 3x leveraged ETFs like JETD or sqqq right now in taxable brokerage for a bit.

Probably because it’s dumb to be in I over C generally.

Sounds like a well-reasoned plan. I’m sure it will work out.

Op here. Normally I’d agree with you that C is the winner. But then again I’m guessing you’ve read nothing about things like digital sovereignty, international decoupling efforts, and new trade partnerships springing up, circumventing us, and basically I’m assuming you have normally/recency bias coupled with dunning Kruger. I’d wager you listen to and respect Alex Jones. Let’s talk in 20 years and see if C outperforms I. The amount of international good will being eroded right now if astounding, but you probably interpret that as strength.

[Anonymous]

OMG I've never seen anyone overestimate their own abilities like this in my entire life.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OMG I've never seen anyone overestimate their own abilities like this in my entire life.

It wasn’t rocket science. I saw a period of immense tumult on the horizon and clicked “exchange fund” and the gambit paid off. I have preserved thousands in capital. All I have to do is click exchange again and I’m back in equities.

Except that wouldn’t make sense because looking at this from a macro perspective we are not going to rally. The jobs report comes out tomorrow, if even remotely accurate it won’t be great, gas is at $111 a barrel and rising without a clear solution in sight, and even then with 20% of capacity apparently having been diminished, inflation is persistent and I’m sure you’ve felt the pressure at the store and the pump.

So what makes you think I’m wrong or overestimating my abilities?

The entire point is that I see the market slipping more days than rising and I have been right. If you read the news about international events right now is a great time to be in G fund where capital does not erode.

I’m guessing I’ll switch into possible 80% I and 20% C in the next few weeks, but not this week. I honestly saved myself like a 17% loss in value by doing what I did with the move, so it wasn’t overestimating myself. It was lucky, but it was also based on a reasonable person’s assumptions based on news of how there are difficult economic headwinds. Anyway, you do you.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OMG I've never seen anyone overestimate their own abilities like this in my entire life.

It wasn’t rocket science. I saw a period of immense tumult on the horizon and clicked “exchange fund” and the gambit paid off. I have preserved thousands in capital. All I have to do is click exchange again and I’m back in equities.

Except that wouldn’t make sense because looking at this from a macro perspective we are not going to rally. The jobs report comes out tomorrow, if even remotely accurate it won’t be great, gas is at $111 a barrel and rising without a clear solution in sight, and even then with 20% of capacity apparently having been diminished, inflation is persistent and I’m sure you’ve felt the pressure at the store and the pump.

So what makes you think I’m wrong or overestimating my abilities?

The entire point is that I see the market slipping more days than rising and I have been right. If you read the news about international events right now is a great time to be in G fund where capital does not erode.

I’m guessing I’ll switch into possible 80% I and 20% C in the next few weeks, but not this week. I honestly saved myself like a 17% loss in value by doing what I did with the move, so it wasn’t overestimating myself. It was lucky, but it was also based on a reasonable person’s assumptions based on news of how there are difficult economic headwinds. Anyway, you do you.

How did you save yourself a 17% loss?

I’m already back in the green. I haven’t lost anything.

[Anonymous]

Also, oil went from $52 a barrel to over $100. Bank of America just predicted “mild stagflation”…stocks are down by they are still too high in value. I am going to jump back in when we have really seen values fall. I don’t know what idiot on here sees a massive rally coming and everyone singing kumbaya.

Things are fked and I am waiting it out a bit and it worked. You can buy all the TQQQ you want right now and see how that works out.