Move TSP to G for a bit?

[Anonymous]

I’m 100% I but considering G for a bit until things seem more “chill”. Anyone else considering this?

[Anonymous]

No.

Your risk profile is already high by being in 100% I.

Going to G makes no sense.

As long as you’re not retiring within the next 5-10 years, stay invested in C S or I

[Anonymous]

The problem is you don’t know when to move back. When timing the market, you have to be right twice - when to get out, and when to get back in.

Assuming you have a long horizon, generally speaking you are better off leaving it where it is.

[Anonymous]

100% in anything doesn't make sense, and swinging from 100% I to 100% G definitely doesn't make sense.

Pick a reasonable distribution, then you can tweak it a bit based on circumstances. For example, I moved my G share from 15 to 20 percent last year because I wanted to be a bit more conservative.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:No.

Your risk profile is already high by being in 100% I.

Going to G makes no sense.

As long as you’re not retiring within the next 5-10 years, stay invested in C S or I

I’m saying for like a month or whenever things calm down a bit. Move it to G and have it safe. Basically we had a massive red day yesterday in the market. It feels like we could see more massive red market days based on all the craziness. Then move it back to I after a few big drops in value on red days. and hopefully you can exchange G for I and you’ve bought stocks cheaper. then hold I fund for another few years until values on C fund have gone down in P/E value compared to international and you switch back to C. You see where I am going with this right? It’s called a macro and holistic look at current market conditions and attempting to time the market. Oh no! Who would even consider that!? My intuition is telling me after so many bullish days a recession is coming soon and coupled with all the other nonsense…I might just throw it in G for a few months to see. So what if I miss out on on some potential green days.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:100% in anything doesn't make sense, and swinging from 100% I to 100% G definitely doesn't make sense.

Pick a reasonable distribution, then you can tweak it a bit based on circumstances. For example, I moved my G share from 15 to 20 percent last year because I wanted to be a bit more conservative.

No, I knew I fund would outperform several months ago and it did. It was up 33% last year. There is anemic C fund growth. I read a ton and it doesn’t take a genius to put together why I fund did well.

My next magic trick is telling you that things are nuts right now and I’m moving to G where I will keep things more safe then when I think enough red days have happened in the market I will simply move to an 80% I, 10 S and 10% C allocation for the next couple years. Trust me. I know better than you about macro conditions.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No.

Your risk profile is already high by being in 100% I.

Going to G makes no sense.

As long as you’re not retiring within the next 5-10 years, stay invested in C S or I

I’m saying for like a month or whenever things calm down a bit. Move it to G and have it safe. Basically we had a massive red day yesterday in the market. It feels like we could see more massive red market days based on all the craziness. Then move it back to I after a few big drops in value on red days. and hopefully you can exchange G for I and you’ve bought stocks cheaper. then hold I fund for another few years until values on C fund have gone down in P/E value compared to international and you switch back to C. You see where I am going with this right? It’s called a macro and holistic look at current market conditions and attempting to time the market. Oh no! Who would even consider that!? My intuition is telling me after so many bullish days a recession is coming soon and coupled with all the other nonsense…I might just throw it in G for a few months to see. So what if I miss out on on some potential green days.

If you think yesterday was a "massive red day" you should not be actively trading. Try a lifecycle fund and then forget it.

[Anonymous]

I was once told that the most dangerous investment move is being right the first time on your timing. That makes you think you have it down and emboldens you to make similar market timing moves in the future thata usually don't work well. Like a gambler who wins big his first time and then tries to repeat it doubling down because of that first streak of good luck.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I was once told that the most dangerous investment move is being right the first time on your timing. That makes you think you have it down and emboldens you to make similar market timing moves in the future thata usually don't work well. Like a gambler who wins big his first time and then tries to repeat it doubling down because of that first streak of good luck.

Yeah, it still feels like moving to G for a bit isn’t really market timing so much as a calculated bet to preserve the massive gains seen in the last year plus at this time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No.

Your risk profile is already high by being in 100% I.

Going to G makes no sense.

As long as you’re not retiring within the next 5-10 years, stay invested in C S or I

I’m saying for like a month or whenever things calm down a bit. Move it to G and have it safe. Basically we had a massive red day yesterday in the market. It feels like we could see more massive red market days based on all the craziness. Then move it back to I after a few big drops in value on red days. and hopefully you can exchange G for I and you’ve bought stocks cheaper. then hold I fund for another few years until values on C fund have gone down in P/E value compared to international and you switch back to C. You see where I am going with this right? It’s called a macro and holistic look at current market conditions and attempting to time the market. Oh no! Who would even consider that!? My intuition is telling me after so many bullish days a recession is coming soon and coupled with all the other nonsense…I might just throw it in G for a few months to see. So what if I miss out on on some potential green days.

You need protection from yourself. Choose an asset allocation you can tolerate and stick with it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:100% in anything doesn't make sense, and swinging from 100% I to 100% G definitely doesn't make sense.

Pick a reasonable distribution, then you can tweak it a bit based on circumstances. For example, I moved my G share from 15 to 20 percent last year because I wanted to be a bit more conservative.

No, I knew I fund would outperform several months ago and it did. It was up 33% last year. There is anemic C fund growth. I read a ton and it doesn’t take a genius to put together why I fund did well.

My next magic trick is telling you that things are nuts right now and I’m moving to G where I will keep things more safe then when I think enough red days have happened in the market I will simply move to an 80% I, 10 S and 10% C allocation for the next couple years. Trust me. I know better than you about macro conditions.[/quote

Great. You know better, so why did you post in the first place?

[Anonymous]

I moved my TSP last year to the G fund when there was a lot of uncertainty about the future of federal positions. I didn’t want to chance losing a lot of money in the event I separated from the government since I’m likely to move my money if I do. However, TSP only represents half of my retirement.

OP, I think you have to do whatever gives you comfort and know that you have the live with that decision which may include losing out on some gains.

[Anonymous]

When do you need the money?

Agree with a PP - just do a lifecycle and forget it.

Also, you'll have a pension, so theoretically your TSP doesn't have to be that risk averse. You may not be ready for that, but just saying.

[Anonymous]

Pick an L fund, put it in and rip the knob off.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:100% in anything doesn't make sense, and swinging from 100% I to 100% G definitely doesn't make sense.

Pick a reasonable distribution, then you can tweak it a bit based on circumstances. For example, I moved my G share from 15 to 20 percent last year because I wanted to be a bit more conservative.

No, I knew I fund would outperform several months ago and it did. It was up 33% last year. There is anemic C fund growth. I read a ton and it doesn’t take a genius to put together why I fund did well.

My next magic trick is telling you that things are nuts right now and I’m moving to G where I will keep things more safe then when I think enough red days have happened in the market I will simply move to an 80% I, 10 S and 10% C allocation for the next couple years. Trust me. I know better than you about macro conditions.[/quote

Great. You know better, so why did you post in the first place?

I was going to say something similar, except if you know so much better, you should be making a killing as an investment manager somewhere instead of posting to a random forum.