2022 Senate Map

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

Masters is clearly the underdog, but he has a few things going for him: favorable trend in narrowing the gap, potential Lake coat tails, gas at $4.50 in Nevada--up 30 cents from last week, and Peter Thiel money.

I don't know. This article in the WaPo shows that despite Masters keeping the polling race close, that there are still major hurdles that he is unlikely to overcome:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/arizona-poll-republican-candidates/

A new CBS News/YouGov poll out of Arizona is one of the best distillations of this dynamic to date. It shows GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, who has largely been abandoned by the GOP establishment, trailing Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) by just three points, 51 percent to 48 percent. That’s a margin-of-error race, and it’s one of the closest polls to date (though a couple others have shown the race very close as well).

So have voters suddenly warmed to Masters? Not really.

Despite him being competitive with Kelly in the poll, it also shows 55 percent of Arizonans say Masters is “extreme” rather than “mainstream.” It also shows a whopping 63 percent say they dislike how Masters handles himself personally.

And many Republicans share these views. About 3 in 10 (29 percent) say Masters is extreme, while 26 percent dislike him personally. But only 12 percent decline to support him. He gains the support of nearly 9 in 10 Republicans, including many who regard him as extreme and don’t like him.

Masters is also polling competitively despite the alternative being quite a broadly acceptable candidate. The poll shows voters say they like Kelly personally by a 57-43 margin — including 24 percent of Republicans. Just 34 percent of voters regard him as extreme. And yet, the poll suggests, he might lose anyway.

So, yes, Masters is the under dog. There is a debate tomorrow evening that may shed light on how this race advances.

Did anyone watch the debate? I think the strategy to paint Kelly as a Bernie-style liberal was weak, and unlikely to convince any voters.

The abortion stuff was brutal.

Masters kept trying to use the lie about 87,000 IRS agents. Does that lie actually work? Do people actually get upset at the thought of tax cheats getting caught?

Neither distinguished themselves on abortion. Kelly was weak on the border issue. Masters got in a zinger that electing Kelly would be electing a third senator from California. Overall edge to Masters but unclear whom the debate will sway.

Everything I read said opposite.

You know the debate is on YouTube. You could actually form your own opinion by watching it yourself.

Optics is everything in debates and it was not a good look for an older, disheveled Kelly to stand next to a much taller, better looking, younger guy. Stuff like this is why Nixon got beat by Kennedy. Optics and one liners win debates and Masters won in both categories by any reasonably nonpartisan standard. Kelly is going to lose this election by 3-5%. Bookmark this post.

If it's optics that matters, Masters comes off as a complete lunatic on the immigration questions and incredibly evasive over the abortion questions.

Optics doesn’t mean what you think it means. People are way more superficial than you think. Being good looking and younger and taller than your opponent counts for a lot more than you think it does.

So running for Congress is now basically a beauty pageant in MAGA world? Be "good looking" and just say what the judges (voters) want to hear?

The voters want to hear that you are fighting for the the protections of Roe v Wade that we all had for almost 50 years. The majority do not want to drag their daughters backwards on this issue and will vote accordingly. Very important issue

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

Masters is clearly the underdog, but he has a few things going for him: favorable trend in narrowing the gap, potential Lake coat tails, gas at $4.50 in Nevada--up 30 cents from last week, and Peter Thiel money.

I don't know. This article in the WaPo shows that despite Masters keeping the polling race close, that there are still major hurdles that he is unlikely to overcome:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/arizona-poll-republican-candidates/

A new CBS News/YouGov poll out of Arizona is one of the best distillations of this dynamic to date. It shows GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, who has largely been abandoned by the GOP establishment, trailing Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) by just three points, 51 percent to 48 percent. That’s a margin-of-error race, and it’s one of the closest polls to date (though a couple others have shown the race very close as well).

So have voters suddenly warmed to Masters? Not really.

Despite him being competitive with Kelly in the poll, it also shows 55 percent of Arizonans say Masters is “extreme” rather than “mainstream.” It also shows a whopping 63 percent say they dislike how Masters handles himself personally.

And many Republicans share these views. About 3 in 10 (29 percent) say Masters is extreme, while 26 percent dislike him personally. But only 12 percent decline to support him. He gains the support of nearly 9 in 10 Republicans, including many who regard him as extreme and don’t like him.

Masters is also polling competitively despite the alternative being quite a broadly acceptable candidate. The poll shows voters say they like Kelly personally by a 57-43 margin — including 24 percent of Republicans. Just 34 percent of voters regard him as extreme. And yet, the poll suggests, he might lose anyway.

So, yes, Masters is the under dog. There is a debate tomorrow evening that may shed light on how this race advances.

Did anyone watch the debate? I think the strategy to paint Kelly as a Bernie-style liberal was weak, and unlikely to convince any voters.

The abortion stuff was brutal.

Masters kept trying to use the lie about 87,000 IRS agents. Does that lie actually work? Do people actually get upset at the thought of tax cheats getting caught?

Neither distinguished themselves on abortion. Kelly was weak on the border issue. Masters got in a zinger that electing Kelly would be electing a third senator from California. Overall edge to Masters but unclear whom the debate will sway.

Everything I read said opposite.

You know the debate is on YouTube. You could actually form your own opinion by watching it yourself.

Optics is everything in debates and it was not a good look for an older, disheveled Kelly to stand next to a much taller, better looking, younger guy. Stuff like this is why Nixon got beat by Kennedy. Optics and one liners win debates and Masters won in both categories by any reasonably nonpartisan standard. Kelly is going to lose this election by 3-5%. Bookmark this post.

If it's optics that matters, Masters comes off as a complete lunatic on the immigration questions and incredibly evasive over the abortion questions.

Optics doesn’t mean what you think it means. People are way more superficial than you think. Being good looking and younger and taller than your opponent counts for a lot more than you think it does.

So running for Congress is now basically a beauty pageant in MAGA world? Be "good looking" and just say what the judges (voters) want to hear?

The voters want to hear that you are fighting for the the protections of Roe v Wade that we all had for almost 50 years. The majority do not want to drag their daughters backwards on this issue and will vote accordingly. Very important issue

LOL. For the majority of voters, this whole abortion issue is way down on the list... behind inflation, gas prices, safety and crime, and a few other more important issues.
Of course, none of those top issues favors Democrats so they are going hard and heavy after abortion even though *they* are the extreme ones. No limits? That is extreme.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

Masters is clearly the underdog, but he has a few things going for him: favorable trend in narrowing the gap, potential Lake coat tails, gas at $4.50 in Nevada--up 30 cents from last week, and Peter Thiel money.

I don't know. This article in the WaPo shows that despite Masters keeping the polling race close, that there are still major hurdles that he is unlikely to overcome:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/arizona-poll-republican-candidates/

A new CBS News/YouGov poll out of Arizona is one of the best distillations of this dynamic to date. It shows GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, who has largely been abandoned by the GOP establishment, trailing Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) by just three points, 51 percent to 48 percent. That’s a margin-of-error race, and it’s one of the closest polls to date (though a couple others have shown the race very close as well).

So have voters suddenly warmed to Masters? Not really.

Despite him being competitive with Kelly in the poll, it also shows 55 percent of Arizonans say Masters is “extreme” rather than “mainstream.” It also shows a whopping 63 percent say they dislike how Masters handles himself personally.

And many Republicans share these views. About 3 in 10 (29 percent) say Masters is extreme, while 26 percent dislike him personally. But only 12 percent decline to support him. He gains the support of nearly 9 in 10 Republicans, including many who regard him as extreme and don’t like him.

Masters is also polling competitively despite the alternative being quite a broadly acceptable candidate. The poll shows voters say they like Kelly personally by a 57-43 margin — including 24 percent of Republicans. Just 34 percent of voters regard him as extreme. And yet, the poll suggests, he might lose anyway.

So, yes, Masters is the under dog. There is a debate tomorrow evening that may shed light on how this race advances.

Did anyone watch the debate? I think the strategy to paint Kelly as a Bernie-style liberal was weak, and unlikely to convince any voters.

The abortion stuff was brutal.

Masters kept trying to use the lie about 87,000 IRS agents. Does that lie actually work? Do people actually get upset at the thought of tax cheats getting caught?

Neither distinguished themselves on abortion. Kelly was weak on the border issue. Masters got in a zinger that electing Kelly would be electing a third senator from California. Overall edge to Masters but unclear whom the debate will sway.

Everything I read said opposite.

You know the debate is on YouTube. You could actually form your own opinion by watching it yourself.

Optics is everything in debates and it was not a good look for an older, disheveled Kelly to stand next to a much taller, better looking, younger guy. Stuff like this is why Nixon got beat by Kennedy. Optics and one liners win debates and Masters won in both categories by any reasonably nonpartisan standard. Kelly is going to lose this election by 3-5%. Bookmark this post.

If it's optics that matters, Masters comes off as a complete lunatic on the immigration questions and incredibly evasive over the abortion questions.

Optics doesn’t mean what you think it means. People are way more superficial than you think. Being good looking and younger and taller than your opponent counts for a lot more than you think it does.

So running for Congress is now basically a beauty pageant in MAGA world? Be "good looking" and just say what the judges (voters) want to hear?

The voters want to hear that you are fighting for the the protections of Roe v Wade that we all had for almost 50 years. The majority do not want to drag their daughters backwards on this issue and will vote accordingly. Very important issue

LOL. For the majority of voters, this whole abortion issue is way down on the list... behind inflation, gas prices, safety and crime, and a few other more important issues.
Of course, none of those top issues favors Democrats so they are going hard and heavy after abortion even though *they* are the extreme ones. No limits? That is extreme.

It’s not extreme to trust women and their doctors to make healthcare decisions. Who wants the government making healthcare decisions? I certainly don’t.

Forced birthers are the extremists, no matter what Fox News says.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

Masters is clearly the underdog, but he has a few things going for him: favorable trend in narrowing the gap, potential Lake coat tails, gas at $4.50 in Nevada--up 30 cents from last week, and Peter Thiel money.

I don't know. This article in the WaPo shows that despite Masters keeping the polling race close, that there are still major hurdles that he is unlikely to overcome:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/arizona-poll-republican-candidates/

A new CBS News/YouGov poll out of Arizona is one of the best distillations of this dynamic to date. It shows GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, who has largely been abandoned by the GOP establishment, trailing Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) by just three points, 51 percent to 48 percent. That’s a margin-of-error race, and it’s one of the closest polls to date (though a couple others have shown the race very close as well).

So have voters suddenly warmed to Masters? Not really.

Despite him being competitive with Kelly in the poll, it also shows 55 percent of Arizonans say Masters is “extreme” rather than “mainstream.” It also shows a whopping 63 percent say they dislike how Masters handles himself personally.

And many Republicans share these views. About 3 in 10 (29 percent) say Masters is extreme, while 26 percent dislike him personally. But only 12 percent decline to support him. He gains the support of nearly 9 in 10 Republicans, including many who regard him as extreme and don’t like him.

Masters is also polling competitively despite the alternative being quite a broadly acceptable candidate. The poll shows voters say they like Kelly personally by a 57-43 margin — including 24 percent of Republicans. Just 34 percent of voters regard him as extreme. And yet, the poll suggests, he might lose anyway.

So, yes, Masters is the under dog. There is a debate tomorrow evening that may shed light on how this race advances.

Did anyone watch the debate? I think the strategy to paint Kelly as a Bernie-style liberal was weak, and unlikely to convince any voters.

The abortion stuff was brutal.

Masters kept trying to use the lie about 87,000 IRS agents. Does that lie actually work? Do people actually get upset at the thought of tax cheats getting caught?

Neither distinguished themselves on abortion. Kelly was weak on the border issue. Masters got in a zinger that electing Kelly would be electing a third senator from California. Overall edge to Masters but unclear whom the debate will sway.

Everything I read said opposite.

You know the debate is on YouTube. You could actually form your own opinion by watching it yourself.

Optics is everything in debates and it was not a good look for an older, disheveled Kelly to stand next to a much taller, better looking, younger guy. Stuff like this is why Nixon got beat by Kennedy. Optics and one liners win debates and Masters won in both categories by any reasonably nonpartisan standard. Kelly is going to lose this election by 3-5%. Bookmark this post.

If it's optics that matters, Masters comes off as a complete lunatic on the immigration questions and incredibly evasive over the abortion questions.

Optics doesn’t mean what you think it means. People are way more superficial than you think. Being good looking and younger and taller than your opponent counts for a lot more than you think it does.

So running for Congress is now basically a beauty pageant in MAGA world? Be "good looking" and just say what the judges (voters) want to hear?

The voters want to hear that you are fighting for the the protections of Roe v Wade that we all had for almost 50 years. The majority do not want to drag their daughters backwards on this issue and will vote accordingly. Very important issue

LOL. For the majority of voters, this whole abortion issue is way down on the list... behind inflation, gas prices, safety and crime, and a few other more important issues.
Of course, none of those top issues favors Democrats so they are going hard and heavy after abortion even though *they* are the extreme ones. No limits? That is extreme.

Nope, it's the second most important issue. Ranks much much higher than crime

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_Politics_USA-NOS-and-Tables_202209021321.pdf

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

Masters is clearly the underdog, but he has a few things going for him: favorable trend in narrowing the gap, potential Lake coat tails, gas at $4.50 in Nevada--up 30 cents from last week, and Peter Thiel money.

I don't know. This article in the WaPo shows that despite Masters keeping the polling race close, that there are still major hurdles that he is unlikely to overcome:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/arizona-poll-republican-candidates/

A new CBS News/YouGov poll out of Arizona is one of the best distillations of this dynamic to date. It shows GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, who has largely been abandoned by the GOP establishment, trailing Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) by just three points, 51 percent to 48 percent. That’s a margin-of-error race, and it’s one of the closest polls to date (though a couple others have shown the race very close as well).

So have voters suddenly warmed to Masters? Not really.

Despite him being competitive with Kelly in the poll, it also shows 55 percent of Arizonans say Masters is “extreme” rather than “mainstream.” It also shows a whopping 63 percent say they dislike how Masters handles himself personally.

And many Republicans share these views. About 3 in 10 (29 percent) say Masters is extreme, while 26 percent dislike him personally. But only 12 percent decline to support him. He gains the support of nearly 9 in 10 Republicans, including many who regard him as extreme and don’t like him.

Masters is also polling competitively despite the alternative being quite a broadly acceptable candidate. The poll shows voters say they like Kelly personally by a 57-43 margin — including 24 percent of Republicans. Just 34 percent of voters regard him as extreme. And yet, the poll suggests, he might lose anyway.

So, yes, Masters is the under dog. There is a debate tomorrow evening that may shed light on how this race advances.

Did anyone watch the debate? I think the strategy to paint Kelly as a Bernie-style liberal was weak, and unlikely to convince any voters.

The abortion stuff was brutal.

Masters kept trying to use the lie about 87,000 IRS agents. Does that lie actually work? Do people actually get upset at the thought of tax cheats getting caught?

Neither distinguished themselves on abortion. Kelly was weak on the border issue. Masters got in a zinger that electing Kelly would be electing a third senator from California. Overall edge to Masters but unclear whom the debate will sway.

Everything I read said opposite.

You know the debate is on YouTube. You could actually form your own opinion by watching it yourself.

Optics is everything in debates and it was not a good look for an older, disheveled Kelly to stand next to a much taller, better looking, younger guy. Stuff like this is why Nixon got beat by Kennedy. Optics and one liners win debates and Masters won in both categories by any reasonably nonpartisan standard. Kelly is going to lose this election by 3-5%. Bookmark this post.

If it's optics that matters, Masters comes off as a complete lunatic on the immigration questions and incredibly evasive over the abortion questions.

Optics doesn’t mean what you think it means. People are way more superficial than you think. Being good looking and younger and taller than your opponent counts for a lot more than you think it does.

So running for Congress is now basically a beauty pageant in MAGA world? Be "good looking" and just say what the judges (voters) want to hear?

The voters want to hear that you are fighting for the the protections of Roe v Wade that we all had for almost 50 years. The majority do not want to drag their daughters backwards on this issue and will vote accordingly. Very important issue

LOL. For the majority of voters, this whole abortion issue is way down on the list... behind inflation, gas prices, safety and crime, and a few other more important issues.
Of course, none of those top issues favors Democrats so they are going hard and heavy after abortion even though *they* are the extreme ones. No limits? That is extreme.

Nope, it's the second most important issue. Ranks much much higher than crime

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_Politics_USA-NOS-and-Tables_202209021321.pdf

This poll is a month and a half old. That is light years in politics.

Monmouth....Oct. 3



https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_100322/

[Anonymous]

Gallup's most important list. Economy totally dominates at 38%. Abortion is at 4% of respondents (down from 8% in July), as is crime. Immigration slightly higher at 6%.

An interesting part of this poll is that 48% of the respondents thought Republicans would better handle the issue they gave as the most important versus 37% who thought the Democrats would do better.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/most-important-problem.aspx

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

Masters is clearly the underdog, but he has a few things going for him: favorable trend in narrowing the gap, potential Lake coat tails, gas at $4.50 in Nevada--up 30 cents from last week, and Peter Thiel money.

I don't know. This article in the WaPo shows that despite Masters keeping the polling race close, that there are still major hurdles that he is unlikely to overcome:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/arizona-poll-republican-candidates/

A new CBS News/YouGov poll out of Arizona is one of the best distillations of this dynamic to date. It shows GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, who has largely been abandoned by the GOP establishment, trailing Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) by just three points, 51 percent to 48 percent. That’s a margin-of-error race, and it’s one of the closest polls to date (though a couple others have shown the race very close as well).

So have voters suddenly warmed to Masters? Not really.

Despite him being competitive with Kelly in the poll, it also shows 55 percent of Arizonans say Masters is “extreme” rather than “mainstream.” It also shows a whopping 63 percent say they dislike how Masters handles himself personally.

And many Republicans share these views. About 3 in 10 (29 percent) say Masters is extreme, while 26 percent dislike him personally. But only 12 percent decline to support him. He gains the support of nearly 9 in 10 Republicans, including many who regard him as extreme and don’t like him.

Masters is also polling competitively despite the alternative being quite a broadly acceptable candidate. The poll shows voters say they like Kelly personally by a 57-43 margin — including 24 percent of Republicans. Just 34 percent of voters regard him as extreme. And yet, the poll suggests, he might lose anyway.

So, yes, Masters is the under dog. There is a debate tomorrow evening that may shed light on how this race advances.

Did anyone watch the debate? I think the strategy to paint Kelly as a Bernie-style liberal was weak, and unlikely to convince any voters.

The abortion stuff was brutal.

Masters kept trying to use the lie about 87,000 IRS agents. Does that lie actually work? Do people actually get upset at the thought of tax cheats getting caught?

Neither distinguished themselves on abortion. Kelly was weak on the border issue. Masters got in a zinger that electing Kelly would be electing a third senator from California. Overall edge to Masters but unclear whom the debate will sway.

Everything I read said opposite.

You know the debate is on YouTube. You could actually form your own opinion by watching it yourself.

Optics is everything in debates and it was not a good look for an older, disheveled Kelly to stand next to a much taller, better looking, younger guy. Stuff like this is why Nixon got beat by Kennedy. Optics and one liners win debates and Masters won in both categories by any reasonably nonpartisan standard. Kelly is going to lose this election by 3-5%. Bookmark this post.

If it's optics that matters, Masters comes off as a complete lunatic on the immigration questions and incredibly evasive over the abortion questions.

Optics doesn’t mean what you think it means. People are way more superficial than you think. Being good looking and younger and taller than your opponent counts for a lot more than you think it does.

So running for Congress is now basically a beauty pageant in MAGA world? Be "good looking" and just say what the judges (voters) want to hear?

The voters want to hear that you are fighting for the the protections of Roe v Wade that we all had for almost 50 years. The majority do not want to drag their daughters backwards on this issue and will vote accordingly. Very important issue

LOL. For the majority of voters, this whole abortion issue is way down on the list... behind inflation, gas prices, safety and crime, and a few other more important issues.
Of course, none of those top issues favors Democrats so they are going hard and heavy after abortion even though *they* are the extreme ones. No limits? That is extreme.

Abortion is an economy issue, abortion is a safety issue, abortion is a freedom issue. Underestimate it at your peril.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

Masters is clearly the underdog, but he has a few things going for him: favorable trend in narrowing the gap, potential Lake coat tails, gas at $4.50 in Nevada--up 30 cents from last week, and Peter Thiel money.

I don't know. This article in the WaPo shows that despite Masters keeping the polling race close, that there are still major hurdles that he is unlikely to overcome:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/arizona-poll-republican-candidates/

A new CBS News/YouGov poll out of Arizona is one of the best distillations of this dynamic to date. It shows GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, who has largely been abandoned by the GOP establishment, trailing Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) by just three points, 51 percent to 48 percent. That’s a margin-of-error race, and it’s one of the closest polls to date (though a couple others have shown the race very close as well).

So have voters suddenly warmed to Masters? Not really.

Despite him being competitive with Kelly in the poll, it also shows 55 percent of Arizonans say Masters is “extreme” rather than “mainstream.” It also shows a whopping 63 percent say they dislike how Masters handles himself personally.

And many Republicans share these views. About 3 in 10 (29 percent) say Masters is extreme, while 26 percent dislike him personally. But only 12 percent decline to support him. He gains the support of nearly 9 in 10 Republicans, including many who regard him as extreme and don’t like him.

Masters is also polling competitively despite the alternative being quite a broadly acceptable candidate. The poll shows voters say they like Kelly personally by a 57-43 margin — including 24 percent of Republicans. Just 34 percent of voters regard him as extreme. And yet, the poll suggests, he might lose anyway.

So, yes, Masters is the under dog. There is a debate tomorrow evening that may shed light on how this race advances.

Did anyone watch the debate? I think the strategy to paint Kelly as a Bernie-style liberal was weak, and unlikely to convince any voters.

The abortion stuff was brutal.

Masters kept trying to use the lie about 87,000 IRS agents. Does that lie actually work? Do people actually get upset at the thought of tax cheats getting caught?

Neither distinguished themselves on abortion. Kelly was weak on the border issue. Masters got in a zinger that electing Kelly would be electing a third senator from California. Overall edge to Masters but unclear whom the debate will sway.

Everything I read said opposite.

You know the debate is on YouTube. You could actually form your own opinion by watching it yourself.

Optics is everything in debates and it was not a good look for an older, disheveled Kelly to stand next to a much taller, better looking, younger guy. Stuff like this is why Nixon got beat by Kennedy. Optics and one liners win debates and Masters won in both categories by any reasonably nonpartisan standard. Kelly is going to lose this election by 3-5%. Bookmark this post.

If it's optics that matters, Masters comes off as a complete lunatic on the immigration questions and incredibly evasive over the abortion questions.

Optics doesn’t mean what you think it means. People are way more superficial than you think. Being good looking and younger and taller than your opponent counts for a lot more than you think it does.

So running for Congress is now basically a beauty pageant in MAGA world? Be "good looking" and just say what the judges (voters) want to hear?

Being younger, taller, and good looking counts for a lot in life in general. Don’t believe me? Ask a portly, bald, 50-year old man how his job prospects compare to a 30ish guy who looks like Blake Masters. Being a taller man projects authority. It’s not fair, it’s just how the world works. These are the same voters who voted GW and a reality show huckster into office. You are really putting too much primacy on political stances. The average person is a very “gut feeling,” superficial voter.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

Masters is clearly the underdog, but he has a few things going for him: favorable trend in narrowing the gap, potential Lake coat tails, gas at $4.50 in Nevada--up 30 cents from last week, and Peter Thiel money.

I don't know. This article in the WaPo shows that despite Masters keeping the polling race close, that there are still major hurdles that he is unlikely to overcome:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/arizona-poll-republican-candidates/

A new CBS News/YouGov poll out of Arizona is one of the best distillations of this dynamic to date. It shows GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, who has largely been abandoned by the GOP establishment, trailing Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) by just three points, 51 percent to 48 percent. That’s a margin-of-error race, and it’s one of the closest polls to date (though a couple others have shown the race very close as well).

So have voters suddenly warmed to Masters? Not really.

Despite him being competitive with Kelly in the poll, it also shows 55 percent of Arizonans say Masters is “extreme” rather than “mainstream.” It also shows a whopping 63 percent say they dislike how Masters handles himself personally.

And many Republicans share these views. About 3 in 10 (29 percent) say Masters is extreme, while 26 percent dislike him personally. But only 12 percent decline to support him. He gains the support of nearly 9 in 10 Republicans, including many who regard him as extreme and don’t like him.

Masters is also polling competitively despite the alternative being quite a broadly acceptable candidate. The poll shows voters say they like Kelly personally by a 57-43 margin — including 24 percent of Republicans. Just 34 percent of voters regard him as extreme. And yet, the poll suggests, he might lose anyway.

So, yes, Masters is the under dog. There is a debate tomorrow evening that may shed light on how this race advances.

Did anyone watch the debate? I think the strategy to paint Kelly as a Bernie-style liberal was weak, and unlikely to convince any voters.

The abortion stuff was brutal.

Masters kept trying to use the lie about 87,000 IRS agents. Does that lie actually work? Do people actually get upset at the thought of tax cheats getting caught?

Neither distinguished themselves on abortion. Kelly was weak on the border issue. Masters got in a zinger that electing Kelly would be electing a third senator from California. Overall edge to Masters but unclear whom the debate will sway.

Everything I read said opposite.

You know the debate is on YouTube. You could actually form your own opinion by watching it yourself.

Optics is everything in debates and it was not a good look for an older, disheveled Kelly to stand next to a much taller, better looking, younger guy. Stuff like this is why Nixon got beat by Kennedy. Optics and one liners win debates and Masters won in both categories by any reasonably nonpartisan standard. Kelly is going to lose this election by 3-5%. Bookmark this post.

If it's optics that matters, Masters comes off as a complete lunatic on the immigration questions and incredibly evasive over the abortion questions.

Optics doesn’t mean what you think it means. People are way more superficial than you think. Being good looking and younger and taller than your opponent counts for a lot more than you think it does.

So running for Congress is now basically a beauty pageant in MAGA world? Be "good looking" and just say what the judges (voters) want to hear?

The voters want to hear that you are fighting for the the protections of Roe v Wade that we all had for almost 50 years. The majority do not want to drag their daughters backwards on this issue and will vote accordingly. Very important issue

LOL. For the majority of voters, this whole abortion issue is way down on the list... behind inflation, gas prices, safety and crime, and a few other more important issues.
Of course, none of those top issues favors Democrats so they are going hard and heavy after abortion even though *they* are the extreme ones. No limits? That is extreme.

Abortion is an economy issue, abortion is a safety issue, abortion is a freedom issue. Underestimate it at your peril.

LOL. Kind of reminds me of this tweet that all the Dems were putting out to promote BBB:

Truth is.....abortion kills a life.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

Masters is clearly the underdog, but he has a few things going for him: favorable trend in narrowing the gap, potential Lake coat tails, gas at $4.50 in Nevada--up 30 cents from last week, and Peter Thiel money.

I don't know. This article in the WaPo shows that despite Masters keeping the polling race close, that there are still major hurdles that he is unlikely to overcome:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/arizona-poll-republican-candidates/

A new CBS News/YouGov poll out of Arizona is one of the best distillations of this dynamic to date. It shows GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, who has largely been abandoned by the GOP establishment, trailing Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) by just three points, 51 percent to 48 percent. That’s a margin-of-error race, and it’s one of the closest polls to date (though a couple others have shown the race very close as well).

So have voters suddenly warmed to Masters? Not really.

Despite him being competitive with Kelly in the poll, it also shows 55 percent of Arizonans say Masters is “extreme” rather than “mainstream.” It also shows a whopping 63 percent say they dislike how Masters handles himself personally.

And many Republicans share these views. About 3 in 10 (29 percent) say Masters is extreme, while 26 percent dislike him personally. But only 12 percent decline to support him. He gains the support of nearly 9 in 10 Republicans, including many who regard him as extreme and don’t like him.

Masters is also polling competitively despite the alternative being quite a broadly acceptable candidate. The poll shows voters say they like Kelly personally by a 57-43 margin — including 24 percent of Republicans. Just 34 percent of voters regard him as extreme. And yet, the poll suggests, he might lose anyway.

So, yes, Masters is the under dog. There is a debate tomorrow evening that may shed light on how this race advances.

Did anyone watch the debate? I think the strategy to paint Kelly as a Bernie-style liberal was weak, and unlikely to convince any voters.

The abortion stuff was brutal.

Masters kept trying to use the lie about 87,000 IRS agents. Does that lie actually work? Do people actually get upset at the thought of tax cheats getting caught?

Neither distinguished themselves on abortion. Kelly was weak on the border issue. Masters got in a zinger that electing Kelly would be electing a third senator from California. Overall edge to Masters but unclear whom the debate will sway.

Everything I read said opposite.

You know the debate is on YouTube. You could actually form your own opinion by watching it yourself.

Optics is everything in debates and it was not a good look for an older, disheveled Kelly to stand next to a much taller, better looking, younger guy. Stuff like this is why Nixon got beat by Kennedy. Optics and one liners win debates and Masters won in both categories by any reasonably nonpartisan standard. Kelly is going to lose this election by 3-5%. Bookmark this post.

If it's optics that matters, Masters comes off as a complete lunatic on the immigration questions and incredibly evasive over the abortion questions.

Optics doesn’t mean what you think it means. People are way more superficial than you think. Being good looking and younger and taller than your opponent counts for a lot more than you think it does.

So running for Congress is now basically a beauty pageant in MAGA world? Be "good looking" and just say what the judges (voters) want to hear?

The voters want to hear that you are fighting for the the protections of Roe v Wade that we all had for almost 50 years. The majority do not want to drag their daughters backwards on this issue and will vote accordingly. Very important issue

LOL. For the majority of voters, this whole abortion issue is way down on the list... behind inflation, gas prices, safety and crime, and a few other more important issues.
Of course, none of those top issues favors Democrats so they are going hard and heavy after abortion even though *they* are the extreme ones. No limits? That is extreme.

Abortion is an economy issue, abortion is a safety issue, abortion is a freedom issue. Underestimate it at your peril.

LOL. Kind of reminds me of this tweet that all the Dems were putting out to promote BBB:

Truth is.....abortion kills a life.

Yawn. And when a Republican Senate candidate pays for one, it’s NBD. But let’s criminalize it because…morals?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

Masters is clearly the underdog, but he has a few things going for him: favorable trend in narrowing the gap, potential Lake coat tails, gas at $4.50 in Nevada--up 30 cents from last week, and Peter Thiel money.

I don't know. This article in the WaPo shows that despite Masters keeping the polling race close, that there are still major hurdles that he is unlikely to overcome:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/arizona-poll-republican-candidates/

A new CBS News/YouGov poll out of Arizona is one of the best distillations of this dynamic to date. It shows GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, who has largely been abandoned by the GOP establishment, trailing Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) by just three points, 51 percent to 48 percent. That’s a margin-of-error race, and it’s one of the closest polls to date (though a couple others have shown the race very close as well).

So have voters suddenly warmed to Masters? Not really.

Despite him being competitive with Kelly in the poll, it also shows 55 percent of Arizonans say Masters is “extreme” rather than “mainstream.” It also shows a whopping 63 percent say they dislike how Masters handles himself personally.

And many Republicans share these views. About 3 in 10 (29 percent) say Masters is extreme, while 26 percent dislike him personally. But only 12 percent decline to support him. He gains the support of nearly 9 in 10 Republicans, including many who regard him as extreme and don’t like him.

Masters is also polling competitively despite the alternative being quite a broadly acceptable candidate. The poll shows voters say they like Kelly personally by a 57-43 margin — including 24 percent of Republicans. Just 34 percent of voters regard him as extreme. And yet, the poll suggests, he might lose anyway.

So, yes, Masters is the under dog. There is a debate tomorrow evening that may shed light on how this race advances.

Did anyone watch the debate? I think the strategy to paint Kelly as a Bernie-style liberal was weak, and unlikely to convince any voters.

The abortion stuff was brutal.

Masters kept trying to use the lie about 87,000 IRS agents. Does that lie actually work? Do people actually get upset at the thought of tax cheats getting caught?

Neither distinguished themselves on abortion. Kelly was weak on the border issue. Masters got in a zinger that electing Kelly would be electing a third senator from California. Overall edge to Masters but unclear whom the debate will sway.

Everything I read said opposite.

You know the debate is on YouTube. You could actually form your own opinion by watching it yourself.

Optics is everything in debates and it was not a good look for an older, disheveled Kelly to stand next to a much taller, better looking, younger guy. Stuff like this is why Nixon got beat by Kennedy. Optics and one liners win debates and Masters won in both categories by any reasonably nonpartisan standard. Kelly is going to lose this election by 3-5%. Bookmark this post.

If it's optics that matters, Masters comes off as a complete lunatic on the immigration questions and incredibly evasive over the abortion questions.

Optics doesn’t mean what you think it means. People are way more superficial than you think. Being good looking and younger and taller than your opponent counts for a lot more than you think it does.

So running for Congress is now basically a beauty pageant in MAGA world? Be "good looking" and just say what the judges (voters) want to hear?

The voters want to hear that you are fighting for the the protections of Roe v Wade that we all had for almost 50 years. The majority do not want to drag their daughters backwards on this issue and will vote accordingly. Very important issue

LOL. For the majority of voters, this whole abortion issue is way down on the list... behind inflation, gas prices, safety and crime, and a few other more important issues.
Of course, none of those top issues favors Democrats so they are going hard and heavy after abortion even though *they* are the extreme ones. No limits? That is extreme.

Abortion is an economy issue, abortion is a safety issue, abortion is a freedom issue. Underestimate it at your peril.

LOL. Kind of reminds me of this tweet that all the Dems were putting out to promote BBB:

Truth is.....abortion kills a life.

So how many lives has Hershel Walker paid to kill?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

Masters is clearly the underdog, but he has a few things going for him: favorable trend in narrowing the gap, potential Lake coat tails, gas at $4.50 in Nevada--up 30 cents from last week, and Peter Thiel money.

I don't know. This article in the WaPo shows that despite Masters keeping the polling race close, that there are still major hurdles that he is unlikely to overcome:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/arizona-poll-republican-candidates/

A new CBS News/YouGov poll out of Arizona is one of the best distillations of this dynamic to date. It shows GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, who has largely been abandoned by the GOP establishment, trailing Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) by just three points, 51 percent to 48 percent. That’s a margin-of-error race, and it’s one of the closest polls to date (though a couple others have shown the race very close as well).

So have voters suddenly warmed to Masters? Not really.

Despite him being competitive with Kelly in the poll, it also shows 55 percent of Arizonans say Masters is “extreme” rather than “mainstream.” It also shows a whopping 63 percent say they dislike how Masters handles himself personally.

And many Republicans share these views. About 3 in 10 (29 percent) say Masters is extreme, while 26 percent dislike him personally. But only 12 percent decline to support him. He gains the support of nearly 9 in 10 Republicans, including many who regard him as extreme and don’t like him.

Masters is also polling competitively despite the alternative being quite a broadly acceptable candidate. The poll shows voters say they like Kelly personally by a 57-43 margin — including 24 percent of Republicans. Just 34 percent of voters regard him as extreme. And yet, the poll suggests, he might lose anyway.

So, yes, Masters is the under dog. There is a debate tomorrow evening that may shed light on how this race advances.

Did anyone watch the debate? I think the strategy to paint Kelly as a Bernie-style liberal was weak, and unlikely to convince any voters.

The abortion stuff was brutal.

Masters kept trying to use the lie about 87,000 IRS agents. Does that lie actually work? Do people actually get upset at the thought of tax cheats getting caught?

Neither distinguished themselves on abortion. Kelly was weak on the border issue. Masters got in a zinger that electing Kelly would be electing a third senator from California. Overall edge to Masters but unclear whom the debate will sway.

Everything I read said opposite.

You know the debate is on YouTube. You could actually form your own opinion by watching it yourself.

Optics is everything in debates and it was not a good look for an older, disheveled Kelly to stand next to a much taller, better looking, younger guy. Stuff like this is why Nixon got beat by Kennedy. Optics and one liners win debates and Masters won in both categories by any reasonably nonpartisan standard. Kelly is going to lose this election by 3-5%. Bookmark this post.

If it's optics that matters, Masters comes off as a complete lunatic on the immigration questions and incredibly evasive over the abortion questions.

Optics doesn’t mean what you think it means. People are way more superficial than you think. Being good looking and younger and taller than your opponent counts for a lot more than you think it does.

So running for Congress is now basically a beauty pageant in MAGA world? Be "good looking" and just say what the judges (voters) want to hear?

Being younger, taller, and good looking counts for a lot in life in general. Don’t believe me? Ask a portly, bald, 50-year old man how his job prospects compare to a 30ish guy who looks like Blake Masters. Being a taller man projects authority. It’s not fair, it’s just how the world works. These are the same voters who voted GW and a reality show huckster into office. You are really putting too much primacy on political stances. The average person is a very “gut feeling,” superficial voter.

Obama had that kind of charisma and looks, especially compared to an aging John McCain.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

Masters is clearly the underdog, but he has a few things going for him: favorable trend in narrowing the gap, potential Lake coat tails, gas at $4.50 in Nevada--up 30 cents from last week, and Peter Thiel money.

I don't know. This article in the WaPo shows that despite Masters keeping the polling race close, that there are still major hurdles that he is unlikely to overcome:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/arizona-poll-republican-candidates/

A new CBS News/YouGov poll out of Arizona is one of the best distillations of this dynamic to date. It shows GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, who has largely been abandoned by the GOP establishment, trailing Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) by just three points, 51 percent to 48 percent. That’s a margin-of-error race, and it’s one of the closest polls to date (though a couple others have shown the race very close as well).

So have voters suddenly warmed to Masters? Not really.

Despite him being competitive with Kelly in the poll, it also shows 55 percent of Arizonans say Masters is “extreme” rather than “mainstream.” It also shows a whopping 63 percent say they dislike how Masters handles himself personally.

And many Republicans share these views. About 3 in 10 (29 percent) say Masters is extreme, while 26 percent dislike him personally. But only 12 percent decline to support him. He gains the support of nearly 9 in 10 Republicans, including many who regard him as extreme and don’t like him.

Masters is also polling competitively despite the alternative being quite a broadly acceptable candidate. The poll shows voters say they like Kelly personally by a 57-43 margin — including 24 percent of Republicans. Just 34 percent of voters regard him as extreme. And yet, the poll suggests, he might lose anyway.

So, yes, Masters is the under dog. There is a debate tomorrow evening that may shed light on how this race advances.

Did anyone watch the debate? I think the strategy to paint Kelly as a Bernie-style liberal was weak, and unlikely to convince any voters.

The abortion stuff was brutal.

Masters kept trying to use the lie about 87,000 IRS agents. Does that lie actually work? Do people actually get upset at the thought of tax cheats getting caught?

Neither distinguished themselves on abortion. Kelly was weak on the border issue. Masters got in a zinger that electing Kelly would be electing a third senator from California. Overall edge to Masters but unclear whom the debate will sway.

Everything I read said opposite.

You know the debate is on YouTube. You could actually form your own opinion by watching it yourself.

Optics is everything in debates and it was not a good look for an older, disheveled Kelly to stand next to a much taller, better looking, younger guy. Stuff like this is why Nixon got beat by Kennedy. Optics and one liners win debates and Masters won in both categories by any reasonably nonpartisan standard. Kelly is going to lose this election by 3-5%. Bookmark this post.

If it's optics that matters, Masters comes off as a complete lunatic on the immigration questions and incredibly evasive over the abortion questions.

Optics doesn’t mean what you think it means. People are way more superficial than you think. Being good looking and younger and taller than your opponent counts for a lot more than you think it does.

So running for Congress is now basically a beauty pageant in MAGA world? Be "good looking" and just say what the judges (voters) want to hear?

The voters want to hear that you are fighting for the the protections of Roe v Wade that we all had for almost 50 years. The majority do not want to drag their daughters backwards on this issue and will vote accordingly. Very important issue

LOL. For the majority of voters, this whole abortion issue is way down on the list... behind inflation, gas prices, safety and crime, and a few other more important issues.
Of course, none of those top issues favors Democrats so they are going hard and heavy after abortion even though *they* are the extreme ones. No limits? That is extreme.

Abortion is an economy issue, abortion is a safety issue, abortion is a freedom issue. Underestimate it at your peril.

LOL. Kind of reminds me of this tweet that all the Dems were putting out to promote BBB:

Truth is.....abortion kills a life.

So how many lives has Hershel Walker paid to kill?

It's a good question. Quite a few of his behaviors are in line with other NFL players.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

Masters is clearly the underdog, but he has a few things going for him: favorable trend in narrowing the gap, potential Lake coat tails, gas at $4.50 in Nevada--up 30 cents from last week, and Peter Thiel money.

I don't know. This article in the WaPo shows that despite Masters keeping the polling race close, that there are still major hurdles that he is unlikely to overcome:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/arizona-poll-republican-candidates/

A new CBS News/YouGov poll out of Arizona is one of the best distillations of this dynamic to date. It shows GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, who has largely been abandoned by the GOP establishment, trailing Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) by just three points, 51 percent to 48 percent. That’s a margin-of-error race, and it’s one of the closest polls to date (though a couple others have shown the race very close as well).

So have voters suddenly warmed to Masters? Not really.

Despite him being competitive with Kelly in the poll, it also shows 55 percent of Arizonans say Masters is “extreme” rather than “mainstream.” It also shows a whopping 63 percent say they dislike how Masters handles himself personally.

And many Republicans share these views. About 3 in 10 (29 percent) say Masters is extreme, while 26 percent dislike him personally. But only 12 percent decline to support him. He gains the support of nearly 9 in 10 Republicans, including many who regard him as extreme and don’t like him.

Masters is also polling competitively despite the alternative being quite a broadly acceptable candidate. The poll shows voters say they like Kelly personally by a 57-43 margin — including 24 percent of Republicans. Just 34 percent of voters regard him as extreme. And yet, the poll suggests, he might lose anyway.

So, yes, Masters is the under dog. There is a debate tomorrow evening that may shed light on how this race advances.

Did anyone watch the debate? I think the strategy to paint Kelly as a Bernie-style liberal was weak, and unlikely to convince any voters.

The abortion stuff was brutal.

Masters kept trying to use the lie about 87,000 IRS agents. Does that lie actually work? Do people actually get upset at the thought of tax cheats getting caught?

Neither distinguished themselves on abortion. Kelly was weak on the border issue. Masters got in a zinger that electing Kelly would be electing a third senator from California. Overall edge to Masters but unclear whom the debate will sway.

Everything I read said opposite.

You know the debate is on YouTube. You could actually form your own opinion by watching it yourself.

Optics is everything in debates and it was not a good look for an older, disheveled Kelly to stand next to a much taller, better looking, younger guy. Stuff like this is why Nixon got beat by Kennedy. Optics and one liners win debates and Masters won in both categories by any reasonably nonpartisan standard. Kelly is going to lose this election by 3-5%. Bookmark this post.

If it's optics that matters, Masters comes off as a complete lunatic on the immigration questions and incredibly evasive over the abortion questions.

Optics doesn’t mean what you think it means. People are way more superficial than you think. Being good looking and younger and taller than your opponent counts for a lot more than you think it does.

So running for Congress is now basically a beauty pageant in MAGA world? Be "good looking" and just say what the judges (voters) want to hear?

Being younger, taller, and good looking counts for a lot in life in general. Don’t believe me? Ask a portly, bald, 50-year old man how his job prospects compare to a 30ish guy who looks like Blake Masters. Being a taller man projects authority. It’s not fair, it’s just how the world works. These are the same voters who voted GW and a reality show huckster into office. You are really putting too much primacy on political stances. The average person is a very “gut feeling,” superficial voter.

Obama had that kind of charisma and looks, especially compared to an aging John McCain.

Blake Masters doesn’t have near the charisma of Obama, but he is kind of Obama for right wingers.

[Anonymous]

DCUM Poster A: “All these Trumpers are bat crazy insurrectionist conspiracy theorists.

Also DCUM Poster A: “These polls in these Senate races are 100% and should be trusted. There’s no way a sizeable portion of the 45-50% of overall voters who voted for Trump would give misleading answers to pollsters.”

These polls are off by 5-8% precisely because a lot of Trump voters are as paranoid conspiracy nuts like you said.