2022 Senate Map

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

Masters is clearly the underdog, but he has a few things going for him: favorable trend in narrowing the gap, potential Lake coat tails, gas at $4.50 in Nevada--up 30 cents from last week, and Peter Thiel money.

I don't know. This article in the WaPo shows that despite Masters keeping the polling race close, that there are still major hurdles that he is unlikely to overcome:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/arizona-poll-republican-candidates/

A new CBS News/YouGov poll out of Arizona is one of the best distillations of this dynamic to date. It shows GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, who has largely been abandoned by the GOP establishment, trailing Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) by just three points, 51 percent to 48 percent. That’s a margin-of-error race, and it’s one of the closest polls to date (though a couple others have shown the race very close as well).

So have voters suddenly warmed to Masters? Not really.

Despite him being competitive with Kelly in the poll, it also shows 55 percent of Arizonans say Masters is “extreme” rather than “mainstream.” It also shows a whopping 63 percent say they dislike how Masters handles himself personally.

And many Republicans share these views. About 3 in 10 (29 percent) say Masters is extreme, while 26 percent dislike him personally. But only 12 percent decline to support him. He gains the support of nearly 9 in 10 Republicans, including many who regard him as extreme and don’t like him.

Masters is also polling competitively despite the alternative being quite a broadly acceptable candidate. The poll shows voters say they like Kelly personally by a 57-43 margin — including 24 percent of Republicans. Just 34 percent of voters regard him as extreme. And yet, the poll suggests, he might lose anyway.

So, yes, Masters is the under dog. There is a debate tomorrow evening that may shed light on how this race advances.

Did anyone watch the debate? I think the strategy to paint Kelly as a Bernie-style liberal was weak, and unlikely to convince any voters.

The abortion stuff was brutal.

Masters kept trying to use the lie about 87,000 IRS agents. Does that lie actually work? Do people actually get upset at the thought of tax cheats getting caught?

Neither distinguished themselves on abortion. Kelly was weak on the border issue. Masters got in a zinger that electing Kelly would be electing a third senator from California. Overall edge to Masters but unclear whom the debate will sway.

Everything I read said opposite.

You know the debate is on YouTube. You could actually form your own opinion by watching it yourself.

Optics is everything in debates and it was not a good look for an older, disheveled Kelly to stand next to a much taller, better looking, younger guy. Stuff like this is why Nixon got beat by Kennedy. Optics and one liners win debates and Masters won in both categories by any reasonably nonpartisan standard. Kelly is going to lose this election by 3-5%. Bookmark this post.

Masters definitely has a lock on the incel bloc.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

Masters is clearly the underdog, but he has a few things going for him: favorable trend in narrowing the gap, potential Lake coat tails, gas at $4.50 in Nevada--up 30 cents from last week, and Peter Thiel money.

I don't know. This article in the WaPo shows that despite Masters keeping the polling race close, that there are still major hurdles that he is unlikely to overcome:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/arizona-poll-republican-candidates/

A new CBS News/YouGov poll out of Arizona is one of the best distillations of this dynamic to date. It shows GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, who has largely been abandoned by the GOP establishment, trailing Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) by just three points, 51 percent to 48 percent. That’s a margin-of-error race, and it’s one of the closest polls to date (though a couple others have shown the race very close as well).

So have voters suddenly warmed to Masters? Not really.

Despite him being competitive with Kelly in the poll, it also shows 55 percent of Arizonans say Masters is “extreme” rather than “mainstream.” It also shows a whopping 63 percent say they dislike how Masters handles himself personally.

And many Republicans share these views. About 3 in 10 (29 percent) say Masters is extreme, while 26 percent dislike him personally. But only 12 percent decline to support him. He gains the support of nearly 9 in 10 Republicans, including many who regard him as extreme and don’t like him.

Masters is also polling competitively despite the alternative being quite a broadly acceptable candidate. The poll shows voters say they like Kelly personally by a 57-43 margin — including 24 percent of Republicans. Just 34 percent of voters regard him as extreme. And yet, the poll suggests, he might lose anyway.

So, yes, Masters is the under dog. There is a debate tomorrow evening that may shed light on how this race advances.

Did anyone watch the debate? I think the strategy to paint Kelly as a Bernie-style liberal was weak, and unlikely to convince any voters.

The abortion stuff was brutal.

Masters kept trying to use the lie about 87,000 IRS agents. Does that lie actually work? Do people actually get upset at the thought of tax cheats getting caught?

Neither distinguished themselves on abortion. Kelly was weak on the border issue. Masters got in a zinger that electing Kelly would be electing a third senator from California. Overall edge to Masters but unclear whom the debate will sway.

Everything I read said opposite.

You know the debate is on YouTube. You could actually form your own opinion by watching it yourself.

Optics is everything in debates and it was not a good look for an older, disheveled Kelly to stand next to a much taller, better looking, younger guy. Stuff like this is why Nixon got beat by Kennedy. Optics and one liners win debates and Masters won in both categories by any reasonably nonpartisan standard. Kelly is going to lose this election by 3-5%. Bookmark this post.

If it's optics that matters, Masters comes off as a complete lunatic on the immigration questions and incredibly evasive over the abortion questions.

Optics doesn’t mean what you think it means. People are way more superficial than you think. Being good looking and younger and taller than your opponent counts for a lot more than you think it does.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

Masters is clearly the underdog, but he has a few things going for him: favorable trend in narrowing the gap, potential Lake coat tails, gas at $4.50 in Nevada--up 30 cents from last week, and Peter Thiel money.

I don't know. This article in the WaPo shows that despite Masters keeping the polling race close, that there are still major hurdles that he is unlikely to overcome:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/arizona-poll-republican-candidates/

A new CBS News/YouGov poll out of Arizona is one of the best distillations of this dynamic to date. It shows GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, who has largely been abandoned by the GOP establishment, trailing Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) by just three points, 51 percent to 48 percent. That’s a margin-of-error race, and it’s one of the closest polls to date (though a couple others have shown the race very close as well).

So have voters suddenly warmed to Masters? Not really.

Despite him being competitive with Kelly in the poll, it also shows 55 percent of Arizonans say Masters is “extreme” rather than “mainstream.” It also shows a whopping 63 percent say they dislike how Masters handles himself personally.

And many Republicans share these views. About 3 in 10 (29 percent) say Masters is extreme, while 26 percent dislike him personally. But only 12 percent decline to support him. He gains the support of nearly 9 in 10 Republicans, including many who regard him as extreme and don’t like him.

Masters is also polling competitively despite the alternative being quite a broadly acceptable candidate. The poll shows voters say they like Kelly personally by a 57-43 margin — including 24 percent of Republicans. Just 34 percent of voters regard him as extreme. And yet, the poll suggests, he might lose anyway.

So, yes, Masters is the under dog. There is a debate tomorrow evening that may shed light on how this race advances.

Did anyone watch the debate? I think the strategy to paint Kelly as a Bernie-style liberal was weak, and unlikely to convince any voters.

The abortion stuff was brutal.

Masters kept trying to use the lie about 87,000 IRS agents. Does that lie actually work? Do people actually get upset at the thought of tax cheats getting caught?

Neither distinguished themselves on abortion. Kelly was weak on the border issue. Masters got in a zinger that electing Kelly would be electing a third senator from California. Overall edge to Masters but unclear whom the debate will sway.

Everything I read said opposite.

You know the debate is on YouTube. You could actually form your own opinion by watching it yourself.

Optics is everything in debates and it was not a good look for an older, disheveled Kelly to stand next to a much taller, better looking, younger guy. Stuff like this is why Nixon got beat by Kennedy. Optics and one liners win debates and Masters won in both categories by any reasonably nonpartisan standard. Kelly is going to lose this election by 3-5%. Bookmark this post.

Masters definitely has a lock on the incel bloc.

Hate to break it to you but incels are jealous of guys that look at act like Masters. I know you probably learned the “everyone I don’t like is an incel” from a steady diet of middlebrow cable news, but it’s cliche and démodé now. Step it up.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

Masters is clearly the underdog, but he has a few things going for him: favorable trend in narrowing the gap, potential Lake coat tails, gas at $4.50 in Nevada--up 30 cents from last week, and Peter Thiel money.

I don't know. This article in the WaPo shows that despite Masters keeping the polling race close, that there are still major hurdles that he is unlikely to overcome:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/arizona-poll-republican-candidates/

A new CBS News/YouGov poll out of Arizona is one of the best distillations of this dynamic to date. It shows GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, who has largely been abandoned by the GOP establishment, trailing Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) by just three points, 51 percent to 48 percent. That’s a margin-of-error race, and it’s one of the closest polls to date (though a couple others have shown the race very close as well).

So have voters suddenly warmed to Masters? Not really.

Despite him being competitive with Kelly in the poll, it also shows 55 percent of Arizonans say Masters is “extreme” rather than “mainstream.” It also shows a whopping 63 percent say they dislike how Masters handles himself personally.

And many Republicans share these views. About 3 in 10 (29 percent) say Masters is extreme, while 26 percent dislike him personally. But only 12 percent decline to support him. He gains the support of nearly 9 in 10 Republicans, including many who regard him as extreme and don’t like him.

Masters is also polling competitively despite the alternative being quite a broadly acceptable candidate. The poll shows voters say they like Kelly personally by a 57-43 margin — including 24 percent of Republicans. Just 34 percent of voters regard him as extreme. And yet, the poll suggests, he might lose anyway.

So, yes, Masters is the under dog. There is a debate tomorrow evening that may shed light on how this race advances.

Did anyone watch the debate? I think the strategy to paint Kelly as a Bernie-style liberal was weak, and unlikely to convince any voters.

The abortion stuff was brutal.

Masters kept trying to use the lie about 87,000 IRS agents. Does that lie actually work? Do people actually get upset at the thought of tax cheats getting caught?

Neither distinguished themselves on abortion. Kelly was weak on the border issue. Masters got in a zinger that electing Kelly would be electing a third senator from California. Overall edge to Masters but unclear whom the debate will sway.

Masters distinguished himself as an inflexible know-it-all that thinks he will tell Arizona's daughters what their decisions should be regarding their reproductive struggles. He needs to stay away from our daughters....far away.

Oh honey he is going to win so it sounds like you will have to move. Republicans are motivated to protect the unborn, we’ve got a good start but need more republicans in office to finish the job. Plus Kelly is so weak!!

Polls in GA looking good for Walker too- woohoo. Going to have some really fresh faces in the senate. I’m betting on Oz to pull through too.

So motivated to protect the unborn that Masters wouldn't even give a straight answer on his abortion stance. The moderator kept trying to get him to say whether he supports an abortion ban from conception, and he kept dodging and talking about late term abortions. Why is he so afraid to say what he thinks? Weak!

[Anonymous]

RCP projection has Rs winning NV, AZ, and PA and Ds winning GA for 52 R to 48 D.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

Masters is clearly the underdog, but he has a few things going for him: favorable trend in narrowing the gap, potential Lake coat tails, gas at $4.50 in Nevada--up 30 cents from last week, and Peter Thiel money.

I don't know. This article in the WaPo shows that despite Masters keeping the polling race close, that there are still major hurdles that he is unlikely to overcome:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/arizona-poll-republican-candidates/

A new CBS News/YouGov poll out of Arizona is one of the best distillations of this dynamic to date. It shows GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, who has largely been abandoned by the GOP establishment, trailing Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) by just three points, 51 percent to 48 percent. That’s a margin-of-error race, and it’s one of the closest polls to date (though a couple others have shown the race very close as well).

So have voters suddenly warmed to Masters? Not really.

Despite him being competitive with Kelly in the poll, it also shows 55 percent of Arizonans say Masters is “extreme” rather than “mainstream.” It also shows a whopping 63 percent say they dislike how Masters handles himself personally.

And many Republicans share these views. About 3 in 10 (29 percent) say Masters is extreme, while 26 percent dislike him personally. But only 12 percent decline to support him. He gains the support of nearly 9 in 10 Republicans, including many who regard him as extreme and don’t like him.

Masters is also polling competitively despite the alternative being quite a broadly acceptable candidate. The poll shows voters say they like Kelly personally by a 57-43 margin — including 24 percent of Republicans. Just 34 percent of voters regard him as extreme. And yet, the poll suggests, he might lose anyway.

So, yes, Masters is the under dog. There is a debate tomorrow evening that may shed light on how this race advances.

Did anyone watch the debate? I think the strategy to paint Kelly as a Bernie-style liberal was weak, and unlikely to convince any voters.

The abortion stuff was brutal.

Masters kept trying to use the lie about 87,000 IRS agents. Does that lie actually work? Do people actually get upset at the thought of tax cheats getting caught?

Neither distinguished themselves on abortion. Kelly was weak on the border issue. Masters got in a zinger that electing Kelly would be electing a third senator from California. Overall edge to Masters but unclear whom the debate will sway.

Everything I read said opposite.

You know the debate is on YouTube. You could actually form your own opinion by watching it yourself.

Optics is everything in debates and it was not a good look for an older, disheveled Kelly to stand next to a much taller, better looking, younger guy. Stuff like this is why Nixon got beat by Kennedy. Optics and one liners win debates and Masters won in both categories by any reasonably nonpartisan standard. Kelly is going to lose this election by 3-5%. Bookmark this post.

If it's optics that matters, Masters comes off as a complete lunatic on the immigration questions and incredibly evasive over the abortion questions.

Optics doesn’t mean what you think it means. People are way more superficial than you think. Being good looking and younger and taller than your opponent counts for a lot more than you think it does.

If this were actually true, we wouldn't have a Senate composed of septuagenarians and octogenarians who look like they just came back from shopping for coffins.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

Masters is clearly the underdog, but he has a few things going for him: favorable trend in narrowing the gap, potential Lake coat tails, gas at $4.50 in Nevada--up 30 cents from last week, and Peter Thiel money.

I don't know. This article in the WaPo shows that despite Masters keeping the polling race close, that there are still major hurdles that he is unlikely to overcome:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/arizona-poll-republican-candidates/

A new CBS News/YouGov poll out of Arizona is one of the best distillations of this dynamic to date. It shows GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, who has largely been abandoned by the GOP establishment, trailing Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) by just three points, 51 percent to 48 percent. That’s a margin-of-error race, and it’s one of the closest polls to date (though a couple others have shown the race very close as well).

So have voters suddenly warmed to Masters? Not really.

Despite him being competitive with Kelly in the poll, it also shows 55 percent of Arizonans say Masters is “extreme” rather than “mainstream.” It also shows a whopping 63 percent say they dislike how Masters handles himself personally.

And many Republicans share these views. About 3 in 10 (29 percent) say Masters is extreme, while 26 percent dislike him personally. But only 12 percent decline to support him. He gains the support of nearly 9 in 10 Republicans, including many who regard him as extreme and don’t like him.

Masters is also polling competitively despite the alternative being quite a broadly acceptable candidate. The poll shows voters say they like Kelly personally by a 57-43 margin — including 24 percent of Republicans. Just 34 percent of voters regard him as extreme. And yet, the poll suggests, he might lose anyway.

So, yes, Masters is the under dog. There is a debate tomorrow evening that may shed light on how this race advances.

Did anyone watch the debate? I think the strategy to paint Kelly as a Bernie-style liberal was weak, and unlikely to convince any voters.

The abortion stuff was brutal.

Masters kept trying to use the lie about 87,000 IRS agents. Does that lie actually work? Do people actually get upset at the thought of tax cheats getting caught?

Neither distinguished themselves on abortion. Kelly was weak on the border issue. Masters got in a zinger that electing Kelly would be electing a third senator from California. Overall edge to Masters but unclear whom the debate will sway.

Everything I read said opposite.

You know the debate is on YouTube. You could actually form your own opinion by watching it yourself.

Optics is everything in debates and it was not a good look for an older, disheveled Kelly to stand next to a much taller, better looking, younger guy. Stuff like this is why Nixon got beat by Kennedy. Optics and one liners win debates and Masters won in both categories by any reasonably nonpartisan standard. Kelly is going to lose this election by 3-5%. Bookmark this post.

If it's optics that matters, Masters comes off as a complete lunatic on the immigration questions and incredibly evasive over the abortion questions.

Optics doesn’t mean what you think it means. People are way more superficial than you think. Being good looking and younger and taller than your opponent counts for a lot more than you think it does.

Obviously. That's why we have the tall and pretty Senator Loeffler, instead of that short dumpy looking Warnock....

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

Masters is clearly the underdog, but he has a few things going for him: favorable trend in narrowing the gap, potential Lake coat tails, gas at $4.50 in Nevada--up 30 cents from last week, and Peter Thiel money.

I don't know. This article in the WaPo shows that despite Masters keeping the polling race close, that there are still major hurdles that he is unlikely to overcome:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/arizona-poll-republican-candidates/

A new CBS News/YouGov poll out of Arizona is one of the best distillations of this dynamic to date. It shows GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, who has largely been abandoned by the GOP establishment, trailing Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) by just three points, 51 percent to 48 percent. That’s a margin-of-error race, and it’s one of the closest polls to date (though a couple others have shown the race very close as well).

So have voters suddenly warmed to Masters? Not really.

Despite him being competitive with Kelly in the poll, it also shows 55 percent of Arizonans say Masters is “extreme” rather than “mainstream.” It also shows a whopping 63 percent say they dislike how Masters handles himself personally.

And many Republicans share these views. About 3 in 10 (29 percent) say Masters is extreme, while 26 percent dislike him personally. But only 12 percent decline to support him. He gains the support of nearly 9 in 10 Republicans, including many who regard him as extreme and don’t like him.

Masters is also polling competitively despite the alternative being quite a broadly acceptable candidate. The poll shows voters say they like Kelly personally by a 57-43 margin — including 24 percent of Republicans. Just 34 percent of voters regard him as extreme. And yet, the poll suggests, he might lose anyway.

So, yes, Masters is the under dog. There is a debate tomorrow evening that may shed light on how this race advances.

Did anyone watch the debate? I think the strategy to paint Kelly as a Bernie-style liberal was weak, and unlikely to convince any voters.

The abortion stuff was brutal.

Masters kept trying to use the lie about 87,000 IRS agents. Does that lie actually work? Do people actually get upset at the thought of tax cheats getting caught?

Neither distinguished themselves on abortion. Kelly was weak on the border issue. Masters got in a zinger that electing Kelly would be electing a third senator from California. Overall edge to Masters but unclear whom the debate will sway.

Everything I read said opposite.

You know the debate is on YouTube. You could actually form your own opinion by watching it yourself.

Optics is everything in debates and it was not a good look for an older, disheveled Kelly to stand next to a much taller, better looking, younger guy. Stuff like this is why Nixon got beat by Kennedy. Optics and one liners win debates and Masters won in both categories by any reasonably nonpartisan standard. Kelly is going to lose this election by 3-5%. Bookmark this post.

If it's optics that matters, Masters comes off as a complete lunatic on the immigration questions and incredibly evasive over the abortion questions.

Optics doesn’t mean what you think it means. People are way more superficial than you think. Being good looking and younger and taller than your opponent counts for a lot more than you think it does.

Obviously. That's why we have the tall and pretty Senator Loeffler, instead of that short dumpy looking Warnock....

Martha McSally is pretty easy on the eyes too, but Kelly somehow beat her.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

Masters is clearly the underdog, but he has a few things going for him: favorable trend in narrowing the gap, potential Lake coat tails, gas at $4.50 in Nevada--up 30 cents from last week, and Peter Thiel money.

I don't know. This article in the WaPo shows that despite Masters keeping the polling race close, that there are still major hurdles that he is unlikely to overcome:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/arizona-poll-republican-candidates/

A new CBS News/YouGov poll out of Arizona is one of the best distillations of this dynamic to date. It shows GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, who has largely been abandoned by the GOP establishment, trailing Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) by just three points, 51 percent to 48 percent. That’s a margin-of-error race, and it’s one of the closest polls to date (though a couple others have shown the race very close as well).

So have voters suddenly warmed to Masters? Not really.

Despite him being competitive with Kelly in the poll, it also shows 55 percent of Arizonans say Masters is “extreme” rather than “mainstream.” It also shows a whopping 63 percent say they dislike how Masters handles himself personally.

And many Republicans share these views. About 3 in 10 (29 percent) say Masters is extreme, while 26 percent dislike him personally. But only 12 percent decline to support him. He gains the support of nearly 9 in 10 Republicans, including many who regard him as extreme and don’t like him.

Masters is also polling competitively despite the alternative being quite a broadly acceptable candidate. The poll shows voters say they like Kelly personally by a 57-43 margin — including 24 percent of Republicans. Just 34 percent of voters regard him as extreme. And yet, the poll suggests, he might lose anyway.

So, yes, Masters is the under dog. There is a debate tomorrow evening that may shed light on how this race advances.

Did anyone watch the debate? I think the strategy to paint Kelly as a Bernie-style liberal was weak, and unlikely to convince any voters.

The abortion stuff was brutal.

Masters kept trying to use the lie about 87,000 IRS agents. Does that lie actually work? Do people actually get upset at the thought of tax cheats getting caught?

Neither distinguished themselves on abortion. Kelly was weak on the border issue. Masters got in a zinger that electing Kelly would be electing a third senator from California. Overall edge to Masters but unclear whom the debate will sway.

Everything I read said opposite.

You know the debate is on YouTube. You could actually form your own opinion by watching it yourself.

Optics is everything in debates and it was not a good look for an older, disheveled Kelly to stand next to a much taller, better looking, younger guy. Stuff like this is why Nixon got beat by Kennedy. Optics and one liners win debates and Masters won in both categories by any reasonably nonpartisan standard. Kelly is going to lose this election by 3-5%. Bookmark this post.

If it's optics that matters, Masters comes off as a complete lunatic on the immigration questions and incredibly evasive over the abortion questions.

Optics doesn’t mean what you think it means. People are way more superficial than you think. Being good looking and younger and taller than your opponent counts for a lot more than you think it does.

Obviously. That's why we have the tall and pretty Senator Loeffler, instead of that short dumpy looking Warnock....

Martha McSally is pretty easy on the eyes too, but Kelly somehow beat her.

It's true that Masters is younger and better looking. But you forget that Kelly is a combat veteran and a former NASA astronaut. He's far more intelligent than Masters and he comes across that way when he speaks.

There are other facets of charisma that carry as much weight as youth and looks.

Kelly has the weight of the incumbency which also helps. Frankly, too many people overlook how much sway the question of abortion and women's health rights have spurred new and previously apathetic voters to come out. Kansas found that out. In Arizona, prior to the Dobbs ruling, new male voters registered about 5% more than women. Post-Dobbs, new female voters now outnumber male voters by 2%. A swing of 7% just in the last few months. Women who are trying to protect their rights including young women, are registering in record numbers all around the county including in Arizona. This is why Masters waffled and dodged the abortion question. He knows that if he reveals his stance on abortion, he'll have sunk his campaign. He's already the underdog and fighting from behind, but the Dobbs decision may have been the nail in his coffin. And he's trying to avoid coming out in anything but a fully right-leaning crowd with his actual anti-women stance.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

Masters is clearly the underdog, but he has a few things going for him: favorable trend in narrowing the gap, potential Lake coat tails, gas at $4.50 in Nevada--up 30 cents from last week, and Peter Thiel money.

I don't know. This article in the WaPo shows that despite Masters keeping the polling race close, that there are still major hurdles that he is unlikely to overcome:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/arizona-poll-republican-candidates/

A new CBS News/YouGov poll out of Arizona is one of the best distillations of this dynamic to date. It shows GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, who has largely been abandoned by the GOP establishment, trailing Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) by just three points, 51 percent to 48 percent. That’s a margin-of-error race, and it’s one of the closest polls to date (though a couple others have shown the race very close as well).

So have voters suddenly warmed to Masters? Not really.

Despite him being competitive with Kelly in the poll, it also shows 55 percent of Arizonans say Masters is “extreme” rather than “mainstream.” It also shows a whopping 63 percent say they dislike how Masters handles himself personally.

And many Republicans share these views. About 3 in 10 (29 percent) say Masters is extreme, while 26 percent dislike him personally. But only 12 percent decline to support him. He gains the support of nearly 9 in 10 Republicans, including many who regard him as extreme and don’t like him.

Masters is also polling competitively despite the alternative being quite a broadly acceptable candidate. The poll shows voters say they like Kelly personally by a 57-43 margin — including 24 percent of Republicans. Just 34 percent of voters regard him as extreme. And yet, the poll suggests, he might lose anyway.

So, yes, Masters is the under dog. There is a debate tomorrow evening that may shed light on how this race advances.

Did anyone watch the debate? I think the strategy to paint Kelly as a Bernie-style liberal was weak, and unlikely to convince any voters.

The abortion stuff was brutal.

Masters kept trying to use the lie about 87,000 IRS agents. Does that lie actually work? Do people actually get upset at the thought of tax cheats getting caught?

Neither distinguished themselves on abortion. Kelly was weak on the border issue. Masters got in a zinger that electing Kelly would be electing a third senator from California. Overall edge to Masters but unclear whom the debate will sway.

Everything I read said opposite.

You know the debate is on YouTube. You could actually form your own opinion by watching it yourself.

Optics is everything in debates and it was not a good look for an older, disheveled Kelly to stand next to a much taller, better looking, younger guy. Stuff like this is why Nixon got beat by Kennedy. Optics and one liners win debates and Masters won in both categories by any reasonably nonpartisan standard. Kelly is going to lose this election by 3-5%. Bookmark this post.

If it's optics that matters, Masters comes off as a complete lunatic on the immigration questions and incredibly evasive over the abortion questions.

Optics doesn’t mean what you think it means. People are way more superficial than you think. Being good looking and younger and taller than your opponent counts for a lot more than you think it does.

Obviously. That's why we have the tall and pretty Senator Loeffler, instead of that short dumpy looking Warnock....

Martha McSally is pretty easy on the eyes too, but Kelly somehow beat her.

It's true that Masters is younger and better looking. But you forget that Kelly is a combat veteran and a former NASA astronaut. He's far more intelligent than Masters and he comes across that way when he speaks.

There are other facets of charisma that carry as much weight as youth and looks.

Kelly has the weight of the incumbency which also helps. Frankly, too many people overlook how much sway the question of abortion and women's health rights have spurred new and previously apathetic voters to come out. Kansas found that out. In Arizona, prior to the Dobbs ruling, new male voters registered about 5% more than women. Post-Dobbs, new female voters now outnumber male voters by 2%. A swing of 7% just in the last few months. Women who are trying to protect their rights including young women, are registering in record numbers all around the county including in Arizona. This is why Masters waffled and dodged the abortion question. He knows that if he reveals his stance on abortion, he'll have sunk his campaign. He's already the underdog and fighting from behind, but the Dobbs decision may have been the nail in his coffin. And he's trying to avoid coming out in anything but a fully right-leaning crowd with his actual anti-women stance.

Republicans have increased their voter registration lead in AZ. The GOP now has a 35-31 advantage over Dems. In 2020, it was just 2.5 pts.

Voter Registration Statistics – August 2022
Party Name Registered Voters Percent
Republican 1,434,838 34.52%
Democratic 1,287,179 30.97%
Other 1,401,450 33.72%
Libertarian 32,600 0.78%
Total 4,156,067

https://azsos.gov/elections/results-data/voter-registration-statistics

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

Masters is clearly the underdog, but he has a few things going for him: favorable trend in narrowing the gap, potential Lake coat tails, gas at $4.50 in Nevada--up 30 cents from last week, and Peter Thiel money.

I don't know. This article in the WaPo shows that despite Masters keeping the polling race close, that there are still major hurdles that he is unlikely to overcome:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/arizona-poll-republican-candidates/

A new CBS News/YouGov poll out of Arizona is one of the best distillations of this dynamic to date. It shows GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, who has largely been abandoned by the GOP establishment, trailing Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) by just three points, 51 percent to 48 percent. That’s a margin-of-error race, and it’s one of the closest polls to date (though a couple others have shown the race very close as well).

So have voters suddenly warmed to Masters? Not really.

Despite him being competitive with Kelly in the poll, it also shows 55 percent of Arizonans say Masters is “extreme” rather than “mainstream.” It also shows a whopping 63 percent say they dislike how Masters handles himself personally.

And many Republicans share these views. About 3 in 10 (29 percent) say Masters is extreme, while 26 percent dislike him personally. But only 12 percent decline to support him. He gains the support of nearly 9 in 10 Republicans, including many who regard him as extreme and don’t like him.

Masters is also polling competitively despite the alternative being quite a broadly acceptable candidate. The poll shows voters say they like Kelly personally by a 57-43 margin — including 24 percent of Republicans. Just 34 percent of voters regard him as extreme. And yet, the poll suggests, he might lose anyway.

So, yes, Masters is the under dog. There is a debate tomorrow evening that may shed light on how this race advances.

Did anyone watch the debate? I think the strategy to paint Kelly as a Bernie-style liberal was weak, and unlikely to convince any voters.

The abortion stuff was brutal.

Masters kept trying to use the lie about 87,000 IRS agents. Does that lie actually work? Do people actually get upset at the thought of tax cheats getting caught?

Neither distinguished themselves on abortion. Kelly was weak on the border issue. Masters got in a zinger that electing Kelly would be electing a third senator from California. Overall edge to Masters but unclear whom the debate will sway.

Everything I read said opposite.

You know the debate is on YouTube. You could actually form your own opinion by watching it yourself.

Optics is everything in debates and it was not a good look for an older, disheveled Kelly to stand next to a much taller, better looking, younger guy. Stuff like this is why Nixon got beat by Kennedy. Optics and one liners win debates and Masters won in both categories by any reasonably nonpartisan standard. Kelly is going to lose this election by 3-5%. Bookmark this post.

If it's optics that matters, Masters comes off as a complete lunatic on the immigration questions and incredibly evasive over the abortion questions.

Optics doesn’t mean what you think it means. People are way more superficial than you think. Being good looking and younger and taller than your opponent counts for a lot more than you think it does.

Obviously. That's why we have the tall and pretty Senator Loeffler, instead of that short dumpy looking Warnock....

+1

And if we’re seriously just going by looks, Blake looks like a blend of Jared “I’m a real boy” Kushner/Skeletor/Graves disease. Handsome he is not.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

Masters is clearly the underdog, but he has a few things going for him: favorable trend in narrowing the gap, potential Lake coat tails, gas at $4.50 in Nevada--up 30 cents from last week, and Peter Thiel money.

I don't know. This article in the WaPo shows that despite Masters keeping the polling race close, that there are still major hurdles that he is unlikely to overcome:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/arizona-poll-republican-candidates/

A new CBS News/YouGov poll out of Arizona is one of the best distillations of this dynamic to date. It shows GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, who has largely been abandoned by the GOP establishment, trailing Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) by just three points, 51 percent to 48 percent. That’s a margin-of-error race, and it’s one of the closest polls to date (though a couple others have shown the race very close as well).

So have voters suddenly warmed to Masters? Not really.

Despite him being competitive with Kelly in the poll, it also shows 55 percent of Arizonans say Masters is “extreme” rather than “mainstream.” It also shows a whopping 63 percent say they dislike how Masters handles himself personally.

And many Republicans share these views. About 3 in 10 (29 percent) say Masters is extreme, while 26 percent dislike him personally. But only 12 percent decline to support him. He gains the support of nearly 9 in 10 Republicans, including many who regard him as extreme and don’t like him.

Masters is also polling competitively despite the alternative being quite a broadly acceptable candidate. The poll shows voters say they like Kelly personally by a 57-43 margin — including 24 percent of Republicans. Just 34 percent of voters regard him as extreme. And yet, the poll suggests, he might lose anyway.

So, yes, Masters is the under dog. There is a debate tomorrow evening that may shed light on how this race advances.

Did anyone watch the debate? I think the strategy to paint Kelly as a Bernie-style liberal was weak, and unlikely to convince any voters.

The abortion stuff was brutal.

Masters kept trying to use the lie about 87,000 IRS agents. Does that lie actually work? Do people actually get upset at the thought of tax cheats getting caught?

Neither distinguished themselves on abortion. Kelly was weak on the border issue. Masters got in a zinger that electing Kelly would be electing a third senator from California. Overall edge to Masters but unclear whom the debate will sway.

Masters distinguished himself as an inflexible know-it-all that thinks he will tell Arizona's daughters what their decisions should be regarding their reproductive struggles. He needs to stay away from our daughters....far away.

Oh honey he is going to win so it sounds like you will have to move. Republicans are motivated to protect the unborn, we’ve got a good start but need more republicans in office to finish the job. Plus Kelly is so weak!!

Polls in GA looking good for Walker too- woohoo. Going to have some really fresh faces in the senate. I’m betting on Oz to pull through too.

“Protect the unborn?” Aren’t you mad that Blake scrubbed his website of his craziest forced birther hopes and dreams?

And as to your dubious polling claim:

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

Masters is clearly the underdog, but he has a few things going for him: favorable trend in narrowing the gap, potential Lake coat tails, gas at $4.50 in Nevada--up 30 cents from last week, and Peter Thiel money.

I don't know. This article in the WaPo shows that despite Masters keeping the polling race close, that there are still major hurdles that he is unlikely to overcome:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/arizona-poll-republican-candidates/

A new CBS News/YouGov poll out of Arizona is one of the best distillations of this dynamic to date. It shows GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, who has largely been abandoned by the GOP establishment, trailing Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) by just three points, 51 percent to 48 percent. That’s a margin-of-error race, and it’s one of the closest polls to date (though a couple others have shown the race very close as well).

So have voters suddenly warmed to Masters? Not really.

Despite him being competitive with Kelly in the poll, it also shows 55 percent of Arizonans say Masters is “extreme” rather than “mainstream.” It also shows a whopping 63 percent say they dislike how Masters handles himself personally.

And many Republicans share these views. About 3 in 10 (29 percent) say Masters is extreme, while 26 percent dislike him personally. But only 12 percent decline to support him. He gains the support of nearly 9 in 10 Republicans, including many who regard him as extreme and don’t like him.

Masters is also polling competitively despite the alternative being quite a broadly acceptable candidate. The poll shows voters say they like Kelly personally by a 57-43 margin — including 24 percent of Republicans. Just 34 percent of voters regard him as extreme. And yet, the poll suggests, he might lose anyway.

So, yes, Masters is the under dog. There is a debate tomorrow evening that may shed light on how this race advances.

Did anyone watch the debate? I think the strategy to paint Kelly as a Bernie-style liberal was weak, and unlikely to convince any voters.

The abortion stuff was brutal.

Masters kept trying to use the lie about 87,000 IRS agents. Does that lie actually work? Do people actually get upset at the thought of tax cheats getting caught?

Neither distinguished themselves on abortion. Kelly was weak on the border issue. Masters got in a zinger that electing Kelly would be electing a third senator from California. Overall edge to Masters but unclear whom the debate will sway.

Everything I read said opposite.

You know the debate is on YouTube. You could actually form your own opinion by watching it yourself.

Optics is everything in debates and it was not a good look for an older, disheveled Kelly to stand next to a much taller, better looking, younger guy. Stuff like this is why Nixon got beat by Kennedy. Optics and one liners win debates and Masters won in both categories by any reasonably nonpartisan standard. Kelly is going to lose this election by 3-5%. Bookmark this post.

If it's optics that matters, Masters comes off as a complete lunatic on the immigration questions and incredibly evasive over the abortion questions.

Optics doesn’t mean what you think it means. People are way more superficial than you think. Being good looking and younger and taller than your opponent counts for a lot more than you think it does.

I guess looks are in the eye of the beholder, but I do not find Masters even slightly handsome. He looks very bony and malnourished. Not really attracted to Kelly either.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

Masters is clearly the underdog, but he has a few things going for him: favorable trend in narrowing the gap, potential Lake coat tails, gas at $4.50 in Nevada--up 30 cents from last week, and Peter Thiel money.

I don't know. This article in the WaPo shows that despite Masters keeping the polling race close, that there are still major hurdles that he is unlikely to overcome:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/arizona-poll-republican-candidates/

A new CBS News/YouGov poll out of Arizona is one of the best distillations of this dynamic to date. It shows GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, who has largely been abandoned by the GOP establishment, trailing Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) by just three points, 51 percent to 48 percent. That’s a margin-of-error race, and it’s one of the closest polls to date (though a couple others have shown the race very close as well).

So have voters suddenly warmed to Masters? Not really.

Despite him being competitive with Kelly in the poll, it also shows 55 percent of Arizonans say Masters is “extreme” rather than “mainstream.” It also shows a whopping 63 percent say they dislike how Masters handles himself personally.

And many Republicans share these views. About 3 in 10 (29 percent) say Masters is extreme, while 26 percent dislike him personally. But only 12 percent decline to support him. He gains the support of nearly 9 in 10 Republicans, including many who regard him as extreme and don’t like him.

Masters is also polling competitively despite the alternative being quite a broadly acceptable candidate. The poll shows voters say they like Kelly personally by a 57-43 margin — including 24 percent of Republicans. Just 34 percent of voters regard him as extreme. And yet, the poll suggests, he might lose anyway.

So, yes, Masters is the under dog. There is a debate tomorrow evening that may shed light on how this race advances.

Did anyone watch the debate? I think the strategy to paint Kelly as a Bernie-style liberal was weak, and unlikely to convince any voters.

The abortion stuff was brutal.

Masters kept trying to use the lie about 87,000 IRS agents. Does that lie actually work? Do people actually get upset at the thought of tax cheats getting caught?

Neither distinguished themselves on abortion. Kelly was weak on the border issue. Masters got in a zinger that electing Kelly would be electing a third senator from California. Overall edge to Masters but unclear whom the debate will sway.

Masters distinguished himself as an inflexible know-it-all that thinks he will tell Arizona's daughters what their decisions should be regarding their reproductive struggles. He needs to stay away from our daughters....far away.

Oh honey he is going to win so it sounds like you will have to move. Republicans are motivated to protect the unborn, we’ve got a good start but need more republicans in office to finish the job. Plus Kelly is so weak!!

Polls in GA looking good for Walker too- woohoo. Going to have some really fresh faces in the senate. I’m betting on Oz to pull through too.

“Motivated to protect the unborn” supports Hershel Walker.
Enough said.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Latest AZ polls from RCP. Notice the trend line.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/az/arizona-senate-masters-vs-kelly-7390.html#polls

Undecideds deciding and Republicans coming home. Will be interesting. Think Kelly wins handily.

Masters is clearly the underdog, but he has a few things going for him: favorable trend in narrowing the gap, potential Lake coat tails, gas at $4.50 in Nevada--up 30 cents from last week, and Peter Thiel money.

I don't know. This article in the WaPo shows that despite Masters keeping the polling race close, that there are still major hurdles that he is unlikely to overcome:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/05/arizona-poll-republican-candidates/

A new CBS News/YouGov poll out of Arizona is one of the best distillations of this dynamic to date. It shows GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, who has largely been abandoned by the GOP establishment, trailing Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) by just three points, 51 percent to 48 percent. That’s a margin-of-error race, and it’s one of the closest polls to date (though a couple others have shown the race very close as well).

So have voters suddenly warmed to Masters? Not really.

Despite him being competitive with Kelly in the poll, it also shows 55 percent of Arizonans say Masters is “extreme” rather than “mainstream.” It also shows a whopping 63 percent say they dislike how Masters handles himself personally.

And many Republicans share these views. About 3 in 10 (29 percent) say Masters is extreme, while 26 percent dislike him personally. But only 12 percent decline to support him. He gains the support of nearly 9 in 10 Republicans, including many who regard him as extreme and don’t like him.

Masters is also polling competitively despite the alternative being quite a broadly acceptable candidate. The poll shows voters say they like Kelly personally by a 57-43 margin — including 24 percent of Republicans. Just 34 percent of voters regard him as extreme. And yet, the poll suggests, he might lose anyway.

So, yes, Masters is the under dog. There is a debate tomorrow evening that may shed light on how this race advances.

Did anyone watch the debate? I think the strategy to paint Kelly as a Bernie-style liberal was weak, and unlikely to convince any voters.

The abortion stuff was brutal.

Masters kept trying to use the lie about 87,000 IRS agents. Does that lie actually work? Do people actually get upset at the thought of tax cheats getting caught?

Neither distinguished themselves on abortion. Kelly was weak on the border issue. Masters got in a zinger that electing Kelly would be electing a third senator from California. Overall edge to Masters but unclear whom the debate will sway.

Everything I read said opposite.

You know the debate is on YouTube. You could actually form your own opinion by watching it yourself.

Optics is everything in debates and it was not a good look for an older, disheveled Kelly to stand next to a much taller, better looking, younger guy. Stuff like this is why Nixon got beat by Kennedy. Optics and one liners win debates and Masters won in both categories by any reasonably nonpartisan standard. Kelly is going to lose this election by 3-5%. Bookmark this post.

If it's optics that matters, Masters comes off as a complete lunatic on the immigration questions and incredibly evasive over the abortion questions.

Optics doesn’t mean what you think it means. People are way more superficial than you think. Being good looking and younger and taller than your opponent counts for a lot more than you think it does.

So running for Congress is now basically a beauty pageant in MAGA world? Be "good looking" and just say what the judges (voters) want to hear?