Harris vs Trump poll numbers

[Anonymous]

The 2024 presidential campaign has hit a reset with more voters moving into the undecided camp now that Kamala Harris is potentially the Democratic nominee, a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds…

Harris and Trump are statistically tied

In a head-to-head matchup, Trump gets 46%, while Harris is at 45%, with 9% undecided. In Marist’s survey earlier this month, just 2% were undecided between Trump and Biden. The poll of 1,309 adults was conducted Monday via online research panels. It has a +/- 3.2 percentage point margin of error, meaning results could be roughly 3 points higher or lower.
In a five-way contest, Trump and Harris each get 42%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pulls in 7%, the lowest since Marist has been testing him since April, and independent Cornel West and the Green Party’s Jill Stein get just 1%.
Notably, Harris holds onto Gen Z/Millennial voters and nonwhite voters more so than Biden was able to when the contest moves from a head-to-head with Trump to one with third-party choices. Earlier this month, Biden declined 13 points with those younger voters and 10 points with nonwhite voters. Harris, on the other hand, largely retains her support with those groups.

https://www.michiganpublic.org/2024-07-23/poll-presidential-race-hits-a-reset-with-harris-vs-trump

The interesting thing is the increase in undecideds from 2% to 9%. Is that good for Harris or Trump. It seems most people have already decided on Trump and Biden. So I am thinking this is good for Harris.

This is a national poll which is useless because it is only a few swing states that matter - Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Question for VP pick for the Dems is is Pennsylvania tracker your way? If so you need to pick someone who will win you Michigan or Arizona.

Dems need Pennsylvania, Michigan and either Arizona or Wisconsin. That’s the race.

[Anonymous]

More on this. The Dems can not win without PA and they are behind right now. Josh Shapiro will be the VP is polling show he can deliver the state.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

The 2024 presidential campaign has hit a reset with more voters moving into the undecided camp now that Kamala Harris is potentially the Democratic nominee, a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds…

Harris and Trump are statistically tied

In a head-to-head matchup, Trump gets 46%, while Harris is at 45%, with 9% undecided. In Marist’s survey earlier this month, just 2% were undecided between Trump and Biden. The poll of 1,309 adults was conducted Monday via online research panels. It has a +/- 3.2 percentage point margin of error, meaning results could be roughly 3 points higher or lower.
In a five-way contest, Trump and Harris each get 42%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pulls in 7%, the lowest since Marist has been testing him since April, and independent Cornel West and the Green Party’s Jill Stein get just 1%.
Notably, Harris holds onto Gen Z/Millennial voters and nonwhite voters more so than Biden was able to when the contest moves from a head-to-head with Trump to one with third-party choices. Earlier this month, Biden declined 13 points with those younger voters and 10 points with nonwhite voters. Harris, on the other hand, largely retains her support with those groups.

https://www.michiganpublic.org/2024-07-23/poll-presidential-race-hits-a-reset-with-harris-vs-trump

The interesting thing is the increase in undecideds from 2% to 9%. Is that good for Harris or Trump. It seems most people have already decided on Trump and Biden. So I am thinking this is good for Harris.

This is a national poll which is useless because it is only a few swing states that matter - Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Question for VP pick for the Dems is is Pennsylvania tracker your way? If so you need to pick someone who will win you Michigan or Arizona.

Dems need Pennsylvania, Michigan and either Arizona or Wisconsin. That’s the race.

The undecideds is VERY VERY bad for Trump. People already know what they think of him. Their opinion of him did not change with Harris' entry into the race. If you think he'd make a good president or if you think he's a nightmare, you already know that. That poll means that Harris' base number—the people who automatically knew they'd vote for her is 45 percent. Surely, a lot of the undecideds will not go for her, but she doesn't need many of them to easily push past Trump.

It's also bad for him because there were people who didn't want to vote for Biden but abhor Trump so they were considering Kennedy. They're coming home. If Kennedy sees any upside from here on in, it's going to be from Trump voters, and as we talk more and more about how Trump played such a big role in introducing the pfizer and moderna vacines it might quickly become a rush for the exits. Also, a lot of MAGA types are not going to be happy when Trump buckles to Wall Street and dumps Vance.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:More on this. The Dems can not win without PA and they are behind right now. Josh Shapiro will be the VP is polling show he can deliver the state.

The thing about Shapiro is that I think he will be just as effective for Harris if he remains governor and is just an extremely noisy cheerleader. I liked him as a pick, but now think it will be Kelly, and Shapiro as the most prominent surrogate.

[Anonymous]

I'm waiting on 538, they have paused their models for a bit to let things stabilize. Makes more sense than trying to infer anything this early.

[Anonymous]

👀 independents in Georgia

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:👀 independents in Georgia

Rest of Georgia - this is way closer than Biden was IIRC

[Anonymous]

RCP only has Pennsylvania polls from before Biden stepped down, as of yet. IOW, useless.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harris

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

The thing about Shapiro is that I think he will be just as effective for Harris if he remains governor and is just an extremely noisy cheerleader. I liked him as a pick, but now think it will be Kelly, and Shapiro as the most prominent surrogate.

Agree 100%

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

lol, there were no trump defectors to biden!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

They have, at best, two days of polling data? Monday and Tuesday?

Why do I have a hard time taking this information seriously?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm waiting on 538, they have paused their models for a bit to let things stabilize. Makes more sense than trying to infer anything this early.

So far, Harris is up:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:More on this. The Dems can not win without PA and they are behind right now. Josh Shapiro will be the VP is polling show he can deliver the state.

Not a chance Pa is voting for her.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm waiting on 538, they have paused their models for a bit to let things stabilize. Makes more sense than trying to infer anything this early.

So far, Harris is up:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

538 doesn’t mean anything now that Nate Silver is gone.