2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

The polls usually massively overstate Democrats support. These polls are not good for Harris. I think Trump is the favorite to win in battleground states. Trump almost won the Presidency while losing the popular vote by 4.5% in 2020. I see no evidence that Harris has the margin over Trump that she needs to win. Beating Trump by millions of votes in liberal California won’t win her the presidency.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote: Nate Silver Model update - Trump is back in the lead

🔴 Trump 52% (Chance)
🔵 Harris 47%

The explanation for this is that they’re factoring in a post convention bounce. If she continues her momentum and doesn’t lose the post convention bounce, her chances will improve in next week or two.

She is not losing momentum. That the Dems actually listened to polling and stopped with it’s Trump is going to ruin democracy bit (he is, but the message didn’t resonate) they are thriving. People are loving Dems taking back freedom, the flag, chants of USA. It is working with boomer voters and younger. So smart. I feel energized by this campaign and so do so many people around me IRL and online. Finally the Dems haven’t screwed it up, and I’ve never voted GOP.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The polls usually massively overstate Democrats support. These polls are not good for Harris. I think Trump is the favorite to win in battleground states. Trump almost won the Presidency while losing the popular vote by 4.5% in 2020. I see no evidence that Harris has the margin over Trump that she needs to win. Beating Trump by millions of votes in liberal California won’t win her the presidency.

🤔

I don’t think that’s accurate. And I don’t see Democrats getting overconfident. But if I were a Republican I would have some huge pause over the massive numbers of 17.5s registering as well as the numbers of young Black women registering. How well do you think young, first time voters are captured in polls?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The polls usually massively overstate Democrats support. These polls are not good for Harris. I think Trump is the favorite to win in battleground states. Trump almost won the Presidency while losing the popular vote by 4.5% in 2020. I see no evidence that Harris has the margin over Trump that she needs to win. Beating Trump by millions of votes in liberal California won’t win her the presidency.

🤔

I don’t think that’s accurate. And I don’t see Democrats getting overconfident. But if I were a Republican I would have some huge pause over the massive numbers of 17.5s registering as well as the numbers of young Black women registering. How well do you think young, first time voters are captured in polls?

I also wonder how pollsters are calibrating young people voting as well as the Republican women who don't want their husbands to know who they're voting for. If they vote like they did in 2022, then it could be a massive repudiation of Republicans.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The polls usually massively overstate Democrats support. These polls are not good for Harris. I think Trump is the favorite to win in battleground states. Trump almost won the Presidency while losing the popular vote by 4.5% in 2020. I see no evidence that Harris has the margin over Trump that she needs to win. Beating Trump by millions of votes in liberal California won’t win her the presidency.

🤔

I don’t think that’s accurate. And I don’t see Democrats getting overconfident. But if I were a Republican I would have some huge pause over the massive numbers of 17.5s registering as well as the numbers of young Black women registering. How well do you think young, first time voters are captured in polls?

I also wonder how pollsters are calibrating young people voting as well as the Republican women who don't want their husbands to know who they're voting for. If they vote like they did in 2022, then it could be a massive repudiation of Republicans.

And the fact that 2022 SHOULD HAVE, historically, been a red wave election year for the midterms. The party of the President always loses power at the midterms, doubly so because Biden was never all that popular. The only one who avoided it was GWB in 2002 post 9-11. But it didn’t happen. It was like a … red trickle. A red 6th day of your period, if you will.

[Anonymous]

But Guam did go red, so they had that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The polls usually massively overstate Democrats support. These polls are not good for Harris. I think Trump is the favorite to win in battleground states. Trump almost won the Presidency while losing the popular vote by 4.5% in 2020. I see no evidence that Harris has the margin over Trump that she needs to win. Beating Trump by millions of votes in liberal California won’t win her the presidency.

Dems have been outperforming polls since Dobbs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The polls usually massively overstate Democrats support. These polls are not good for Harris. I think Trump is the favorite to win in battleground states. Trump almost won the Presidency while losing the popular vote by 4.5% in 2020. I see no evidence that Harris has the margin over Trump that she needs to win. Beating Trump by millions of votes in liberal California won’t win her the presidency.

🤔

I don’t think that’s accurate. And I don’t see Democrats getting overconfident. But if I were a Republican I would have some huge pause over the massive numbers of 17.5s registering as well as the numbers of young Black women registering. How well do you think young, first time voters are captured in polls?

“Massive numbers”? Young people aren’t reliable voters and don’t vote at nearly the rate the the elderly do.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The polls usually massively overstate Democrats support. These polls are not good for Harris. I think Trump is the favorite to win in battleground states. Trump almost won the Presidency while losing the popular vote by 4.5% in 2020. I see no evidence that Harris has the margin over Trump that she needs to win. Beating Trump by millions of votes in liberal California won’t win her the presidency.

Dems have been outperforming polls since Dobbs.

The 2022 midterm polls were pretty accurate. I didn’t see a Democrat overperformance. It’s just that because of redistricting/gerrymandering, there are very few competitive seats in the House of Representatives.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The polls usually massively overstate Democrats support. These polls are not good for Harris. I think Trump is the favorite to win in battleground states. Trump almost won the Presidency while losing the popular vote by 4.5% in 2020. I see no evidence that Harris has the margin over Trump that she needs to win. Beating Trump by millions of votes in liberal California won’t win her the presidency.

🤔

I don’t think that’s accurate. And I don’t see Democrats getting overconfident. But if I were a Republican I would have some huge pause over the massive numbers of 17.5s registering as well as the numbers of young Black women registering. How well do you think young, first time voters are captured in polls?

“Massive numbers”? Young people aren’t reliable voters and don’t vote at nearly the rate the the elderly do.

50% of young people voted in 2020, which is up 11 points from how they voted in 2016. If even most of these young women vote, Republicans should be very, very afraid.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

From Wikipedia:

Trafalgar's polls for the 2022 midterms were inaccurate, predicting Republican wins or close races in multiple states where Republicans ended up losing by significant margins.[3]

Trafalgar does not fully disclose its polling methodology, which has drawn criticism from conventional pollsters. FiveThirtyEight has found that Trafalgar typically overestimates Republican Party performance by two points.[1][4]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:From Wikipedia:

Trafalgar's polls for the 2022 midterms were inaccurate, predicting Republican wins or close races in multiple states where Republicans ended up losing by significant margins.[3]

Trafalgar does not fully disclose its polling methodology, which has drawn criticism from conventional pollsters. FiveThirtyEight has found that Trafalgar typically overestimates Republican Party performance by two points.[1][4]

+1 and looking at one poll is really not that helpful.

[Anonymous]

lol trafalger

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The polls usually massively overstate Democrats support. These polls are not good for Harris. I think Trump is the favorite to win in battleground states. Trump almost won the Presidency while losing the popular vote by 4.5% in 2020. I see no evidence that Harris has the margin over Trump that she needs to win. Beating Trump by millions of votes in liberal California won’t win her the presidency.

🤔

I don’t think that’s accurate. And I don’t see Democrats getting overconfident. But if I were a Republican I would have some huge pause over the massive numbers of 17.5s registering as well as the numbers of young Black women registering. How well do you think young, first time voters are captured in polls?

“Massive numbers”? Young people aren’t reliable voters and don’t vote at nearly the rate the the elderly do.

While this is true, there is also evidence that people registering close to elections are extremely motivated voters, and turn out reliably.