2024 POTUS - polling only

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Please show me where in the polls this Harris momentum is building.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Please show me where in the polls this Harris momentum is building.

Monday, August 26 - NPR https://www.opb.org/article/2024/08/26/harris-momentum-continues-as-she-ties-with-trump-in-these-swing-states/
Wednesday, August 28 - Newsweek citing Fox News poll https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-surges-battleground-states-fox-news-polling-1945872
Thursday, August 29 - Forbes https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/08/29/trump-vs-harris-2024-polls-harris-takes-first-ever-lead-in-wsj-poll/

Just a few...there are more.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote: Nate Silver Model update - Trump is back in the lead

🔴 Trump 52% (Chance)
🔵 Harris 47%

Silver said Fetterman was going to lose and he won by five.

No, Silver said Oz was slightly favored, based on an average of many polls, all but one of which far underestimated Fetterman's result.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/pennsylvania/

People don't understand basic statistics.

Reading the minds of millions of people is not an exact science.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote: Nate Silver Model update - Trump is back in the lead

🔴 Trump 52% (Chance)
🔵 Harris 47%

Silver said Fetterman was going to lose and he won by five.

No, Silver said Oz was slightly favored, based on an average of many polls, all but one of which far underestimated Fetterman's result.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/pennsylvania/

People don't understand basic statistics.

Reading the minds of millions of people is not an exact science.

Part of why people expected Fetterman to lose as part of the “red wave” that didn’t happen is that in the last weeks before the election there were a ton of junky Republican-sponsored polls thrown onto the pile that drowned out the quality polls that were a bit older so the recent junk was given much more weight than it should have had in forecasts and polling compilations like Cook, 538 and RCP (RCP thought the current senate would be 53 R-47 D - it’s not.) I expect this to happen again.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Please show me where in the polls this Harris momentum is building.

That’s about what I expect the result to be + I think one of the southern or western states for Harris as well. NV or AZ most likely.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Please show me where in the polls this Harris momentum is building.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Please show me where in the polls this Harris momentum is building.

That’s about what I expect the result to be + I think one of the southern or western states for Harris as well. NV or AZ most likely.

Both of those will choose Harris.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

I guess that's that then - time to cancel the remaining rallies.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

And that is the best poll for Trump in Michigan. That is literally the only poll in the last 3 weeks that shows Trump positive in Michigan
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

Other polls from the same period (roughly AUgust 23-26)
Morning Consult (Bloomberg) Harris +2 or +3
ActiVote Even
Emerson College (The Hill) Harris +4

Older polls (August 19-22)
TIPP Insights (American Greatness) Harris +2
Fabrizio Ward (Pinpoint Policy Institute) Harris +1

Older polls (August 6-16)
Focaldata Harris +6 to +8

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

This guy is a joke.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

And that is the best poll for Trump in Michigan. That is literally the only poll in the last 3 weeks that shows Trump positive in Michigan
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

Other polls from the same period (roughly AUgust 23-26)
Morning Consult (Bloomberg) Harris +2 or +3
ActiVote Even
Emerson College (The Hill) Harris +4

Older polls (August 19-22)
TIPP Insights (American Greatness) Harris +2
Fabrizio Ward (Pinpoint Policy Institute) Harris +1

Older polls (August 6-16)
Focaldata Harris +6 to +8

I wonder why he only focused on that one poll.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

And that is the best poll for Trump in Michigan. That is literally the only poll in the last 3 weeks that shows Trump positive in Michigan
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

Other polls from the same period (roughly AUgust 23-26)
Morning Consult (Bloomberg) Harris +2 or +3
ActiVote Even
Emerson College (The Hill) Harris +4

Older polls (August 19-22)
TIPP Insights (American Greatness) Harris +2
Fabrizio Ward (Pinpoint Policy Institute) Harris +1

Older polls (August 6-16)
Focaldata Harris +6 to +8

I wonder why he only focused on that one poll.

I WONDER!!!

*goes to profile, sees guy bragging about Trump reposting him on Truth Social*

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote: Nate Silver Model update - Trump is back in the lead

🔴 Trump 52% (Chance)
🔵 Harris 47%

The explanation for this is that they’re factoring in a post convention bounce. If she continues her momentum and doesn’t lose the post convention bounce, her chances will improve in next week or two.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

And that is the best poll for Trump in Michigan. That is literally the only poll in the last 3 weeks that shows Trump positive in Michigan
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

Other polls from the same period (roughly AUgust 23-26)
Morning Consult (Bloomberg) Harris +2 or +3
ActiVote Even
Emerson College (The Hill) Harris +4

Older polls (August 19-22)
TIPP Insights (American Greatness) Harris +2
Fabrizio Ward (Pinpoint Policy Institute) Harris +1

Older polls (August 6-16)
Focaldata Harris +6 to +8

I wonder why he only focused on that one poll.

I WONDER!!!

*goes to profile, sees guy bragging about Trump reposting him on Truth Social*

Political Analyst. Augustana College Alum. Reposted by Trump on Truth Social (2).

(He's a political analyst in his mind only.)