For parents that were shocked their kids didn't get accepted...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Dc’s unhooked friend who may not even graduate due to school avoidance got into a stop 25 school; meanwhile another friend who is a Valedictorian ( in a school that only has one) was rejected from that school and is looking like best options are below Top 50, and may choose a school below top 100 for the full ride, because at that point, what’s the difference?

Damn. That’s really hard to understand

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Where you unaware of the significant increase in applications since COVID? Did you think TO would have no effect on the applicant pool? Did anyone (e.g., college counselor) discuss yield projection for perceived "safety" schools? Do you consider the math/odds in applying to a school that accepts less than 20% of applicants? Did you discuss any of these issues with your kids before they applied? Or is it something else?

I heard there was expected to be a huge increase in applications but I wasn't sure what that impact would be. We figured that the schools would still look at tests for those students that did submit them. I remember seeing statistics showing that for TO schools in the prior year, the acceptance rate was higher for students that did submit test scores. We guessed that the increase in applications is mainly from students who are reaching at schools that they normally would not have applied to and that the schools will still find a way to admit students according to their normal standards. In short, we figured that TO was largely a form of virtue signaling. Apparently, we were wrong.

My kid's counselor was very reassuring to our kid regarding his chances of being accepted. Looking at the Naviance map for his ED school, his stats are in the heart of a cluster of checkmarks and only one X. Despite this, we applied to 20+ schools because ED/EA rounds completely shattered our preconceived notions. Now the counselor is voicing frustration and the sinking feeling that the students haven't been given adequate guidance this year. One student with a 3.6 GPA and 1350 SAT applied to a "normal" number of schools and did not get into any of them.

We did consider the math/odds but felt confident about our kid's stats, ECs, recommendations, and essay quality. Even if he has bad luck at one, two, three, or four schools, he should not have bad luck at 10 or 20 schools. We are engineers and we understand statistics; both of us are also in administrative roles and write documents targeted toward a variety of audiences so we understand the importance of connecting with the reader. I believe we were rationally optimistic based on the then-best-available information.

I do want to congratulate all the students that got into a school that they are happy with. It's a valuable opportunity and I wish them the very best.

And???

And is right.

And by the way, if this is a public school you're talking about, all you're doing is proving our point. A 3.6 GPA is inconsistent with a 1350 SAT score.

NP, still waiting to hear how a 3.6 is inconsistent with a 1350. Should the SAT score be lower or higher?

If a kid is doing 3.6 level work, then the SAT should be higher - at least 1400, and probably 1450. That's why I asked if it's a public school. A 3.6 at a public school is not the same as a 3.6 at a private.

You assertion does not take into account a student's test-taking abilities. My DD is super-bright and has always done well in math, but she does not do well on the math portion of standardized tests because she can never finish in time. She has tried everything (tutors, etc.), so it really is about her test-taking abilities (or lack thereof).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As the parent of a sophomore the thing I find concerning reading all these posts is that the system seems so capricious with a hefty dose of luck involved. My kid will probably be fairly high stats and I think is going to want to ED to a school ranked around 25. That may work out or not, and we get that and that other top schools are a lottery. What freaks me out a little is the stories of kids not getting into the safeties it’s been recommended they fall in love with either because of yield protection or increases in applications. It seems like some kids can fall betwixt and between. Hopefully applying to enough schools will lessen that risk however 1) it may be hard to “fall in love” with multiple safeties and 2) it does seem like all of that is just compounding the problem with kids feeling they need to apply to 15 plus schools to spread the risk.

Part of the phenomenon that I think I'm seeing is that particular schools that have been safeties all of a sudden get incredibly "hot." So you may have 1/3 of the graduating class applying to the same school as a safety. At some point, there is simply a limit to how many students are going to be admitted from any one school to Pitt, or UVM, or UCSB, or UICU. The parents and the college counselor are looking at Naviance and seeing a sea of green checkmarks, but they aren't taking into account that there are literally 5X as many students applying in this cycle then 3-4 years ago. And because schools tend to get "hot" not just at one school but regionally/throughout similar school districts with similar student bodies, it becomes even harder to stand out. And so acceptances plummet.

You could kind of see this happening in real time over last summer and early fall, and you could also see the acceptances and merit aid at those schools dropping precipitously. My DC is at a private school, but just looking at Naviance, and to give one example, the number of students applying to Pitt more than tripled between 2018 and 2022, to the point where more than 1/3 of the class applied there. The number of acceptances remained about the same, but it means that it completely changed category-wise. UCSB applications more than doubled in the past five years, and UVM application numbers were also markedly up.

In trying to figure out whether a school that was previously a safety remains a safety (and a match a match, reach a reach), you need to look not just at historic admissions rates but also at sheer volume of applications and trends over time. That's the only way to assess whether the historic admissions data can be a reliable indicator of DC's chances.

FWIW, all of my kids' safeties were at small schools, but there just weren't a lot of kids from DC's school applying to them and there weren't any more this year than in past years, with our DC as often the only applicant or one of only 1-2. In our case, the historic #s were extremely predictive of admissions outcomes, although we had a couple of nice surprises from reach schools also.

Bump. Nobody wants to hear this, but it's true.

ITA. Thinking more about this, some ideas for "safety" universities that aren't as hot as Pitt, UVM, etc but which are great (and fun) schools:

Indiana--Bloomington
UMass Amherst
Delaware
Auburn

and SLACs:

Clark
Lawrence
St. Olaf
Muhlenberg
Wooster
Wheaton (MA)

PP here - and this is hilarious. Don't disagree, but Auburn and Indiana University Bloomingdale already probably doubled applications this year - they are in the class of the schools that I think exploded - and if I had to guess, Auburn and UMass-Amherst did too. My DC's school is very small so the Naviance #s aren't that insightful (although still hugely helpful). Just saying that the "safety" schools are already not these ones.

For the small schools, those all seem like great schools. I don't know if those application #s are up, but you couldn't go wrong with a kid going there. At least based on my kids' application cycle, they are still in line with historic norms. And with all the small SLACs, I'd urge you to look closely at the endowment and financial stability trajectory.

[Anonymous]

Actual Safeties with in state tuition to boot

JMU, GMU, Towson, UMBC

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Actual Safeties with in state tuition to boot

JMU, GMU, Towson, UMBC

Yeah, but only at this point in time. UMBC is changing very, very quickly. Plus GMU, and probably JMU.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As the parent of a sophomore the thing I find concerning reading all these posts is that the system seems so capricious with a hefty dose of luck involved. My kid will probably be fairly high stats and I think is going to want to ED to a school ranked around 25. That may work out or not, and we get that and that other top schools are a lottery. What freaks me out a little is the stories of kids not getting into the safeties it’s been recommended they fall in love with either because of yield protection or increases in applications. It seems like some kids can fall betwixt and between. Hopefully applying to enough schools will lessen that risk however 1) it may be hard to “fall in love” with multiple safeties and 2) it does seem like all of that is just compounding the problem with kids feeling they need to apply to 15 plus schools to spread the risk.

Part of the phenomenon that I think I'm seeing is that particular schools that have been safeties all of a sudden get incredibly "hot." So you may have 1/3 of the graduating class applying to the same school as a safety. At some point, there is simply a limit to how many students are going to be admitted from any one school to Pitt, or UVM, or UCSB, or UICU. The parents and the college counselor are looking at Naviance and seeing a sea of green checkmarks, but they aren't taking into account that there are literally 5X as many students applying in this cycle then 3-4 years ago. And because schools tend to get "hot" not just at one school but regionally/throughout similar school districts with similar student bodies, it becomes even harder to stand out. And so acceptances plummet.

You could kind of see this happening in real time over last summer and early fall, and you could also see the acceptances and merit aid at those schools dropping precipitously. My DC is at a private school, but just looking at Naviance, and to give one example, the number of students applying to Pitt more than tripled between 2018 and 2022, to the point where more than 1/3 of the class applied there. The number of acceptances remained about the same, but it means that it completely changed category-wise. UCSB applications more than doubled in the past five years, and UVM application numbers were also markedly up.

In trying to figure out whether a school that was previously a safety remains a safety (and a match a match, reach a reach), you need to look not just at historic admissions rates but also at sheer volume of applications and trends over time. That's the only way to assess whether the historic admissions data can be a reliable indicator of DC's chances.

FWIW, all of my kids' safeties were at small schools, but there just weren't a lot of kids from DC's school applying to them and there weren't any more this year than in past years, with our DC as often the only applicant or one of only 1-2. In our case, the historic #s were extremely predictive of admissions outcomes, although we had a couple of nice surprises from reach schools also.

Bump. Nobody wants to hear this, but it's true.

ITA. Thinking more about this, some ideas for "safety" universities that aren't as hot as Pitt, UVM, etc but which are great (and fun) schools:

Indiana--Bloomington
UMass Amherst
Delaware
Auburn

and SLACs:

Clark
Lawrence
St. Olaf
Muhlenberg
Wooster
Wheaton (MA)

IU and Auburn, especially Auburn, should not be on that list. They are no longer reliable safeties after this cycle.

Bummer! I will keep looking.

Auburn got 150% more applications than they did two years ago and will probably have an acceptance rate in the 20’s when it’s all done.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Entitlement despite the fact that there are thousands of kids domestically and internationally with similar academic profiles applying to the same 50 schools.

It's not "entitlement" so stop saying that. THey aren't saying their kids are ENTITLED to get in. They are saying their kids worked hard, got great grades, checked all the boxes. And working hard has, in the past, managed to get those kids into "good" colleges. That is not the norm now. But, many parents' views are colored by what has been the case in the past. You can argue whether the past v. present is the better model. But that feeling is not "entitlement."

It is entitlement to think your kid is so super duper special that they should get in where they want to go because they’re one of hundreds of thousands of kids with top apps and stats. We don’t live in the past, so the past is irrelevant.

For some reason, I think of Gilmore Girls whenever someone mentions elite schools being easier for...them? to get into in the past. Obviously, it's a TV show, but it's not 2003 anymore. If you watch it again, you'll notice it is lily-white.

Well, Rory was the granddaughter of a high-donor alumnus. They ended up buying a building on campus and were going to name it after her.
That will still get lily-white Rory in today.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As the parent of a sophomore the thing I find concerning reading all these posts is that the system seems so capricious with a hefty dose of luck involved. My kid will probably be fairly high stats and I think is going to want to ED to a school ranked around 25. That may work out or not, and we get that and that other top schools are a lottery. What freaks me out a little is the stories of kids not getting into the safeties it’s been recommended they fall in love with either because of yield protection or increases in applications. It seems like some kids can fall betwixt and between. Hopefully applying to enough schools will lessen that risk however 1) it may be hard to “fall in love” with multiple safeties and 2) it does seem like all of that is just compounding the problem with kids feeling they need to apply to 15 plus schools to spread the risk.

Part of the phenomenon that I think I'm seeing is that particular schools that have been safeties all of a sudden get incredibly "hot." So you may have 1/3 of the graduating class applying to the same school as a safety. At some point, there is simply a limit to how many students are going to be admitted from any one school to Pitt, or UVM, or UCSB, or UICU. The parents and the college counselor are looking at Naviance and seeing a sea of green checkmarks, but they aren't taking into account that there are literally 5X as many students applying in this cycle then 3-4 years ago. And because schools tend to get "hot" not just at one school but regionally/throughout similar school districts with similar student bodies, it becomes even harder to stand out. And so acceptances plummet.

You could kind of see this happening in real time over last summer and early fall, and you could also see the acceptances and merit aid at those schools dropping precipitously. My DC is at a private school, but just looking at Naviance, and to give one example, the number of students applying to Pitt more than tripled between 2018 and 2022, to the point where more than 1/3 of the class applied there. The number of acceptances remained about the same, but it means that it completely changed category-wise. UCSB applications more than doubled in the past five years, and UVM application numbers were also markedly up.

In trying to figure out whether a school that was previously a safety remains a safety (and a match a match, reach a reach), you need to look not just at historic admissions rates but also at sheer volume of applications and trends over time. That's the only way to assess whether the historic admissions data can be a reliable indicator of DC's chances.

FWIW, all of my kids' safeties were at small schools, but there just weren't a lot of kids from DC's school applying to them and there weren't any more this year than in past years, with our DC as often the only applicant or one of only 1-2. In our case, the historic #s were extremely predictive of admissions outcomes, although we had a couple of nice surprises from reach schools also.

Bump. Nobody wants to hear this, but it's true.

ITA. Thinking more about this, some ideas for "safety" universities that aren't as hot as Pitt, UVM, etc but which are great (and fun) schools:

Indiana--Bloomington
UMass Amherst
Delaware
Auburn

and SLACs:

Clark
Lawrence
St. Olaf
Muhlenberg
Wooster
Wheaton (MA)

You are part of the problem.

[Anonymous]

Parent of a HS junior who is now terrified. Student has a 34 ACT and 4.3 WGPA, will have 10 APs total, so far all 5s on those taken in 9th and 10th.

Sounds like all the schools he thought were targets are actually reaches, what he thought were safetys are now targets, and I cannot imagine what actual safetys will be because he will be rejected for yield protection.

It is not entitlement, but there should be some expectation that if you do this, then you will get I
into that (isn't that the rubric they've been taught in MCPS from day one?!?)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Parent of a HS junior who is now terrified. Student has a 34 ACT and 4.3 WGPA, will have 10 APs total, so far all 5s on those taken in 9th and 10th.

Sounds like all the schools he thought were targets are actually reaches, what he thought were safetys are now targets, and I cannot imagine what actual safetys will be because he will be rejected for yield protection.

It is not entitlement, but there should be some expectation that if you do this, then you will get I
into that (isn't that the rubric they've been taught in MCPS from day one?!?)

There is a rubric, but the rubric has quickly changed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Dc’s unhooked friend who may not even graduate due to school avoidance got into a stop 25 school; meanwhile another friend who is a Valedictorian ( in a school that only has one) was rejected from that school and is looking like best options are below Top 50, and may choose a school below top 100 for the full ride, because at that point, what’s the difference?

Why, in this tale, is there no difference between a school ranked 55 and a school ranked 105, but there is an ocean of difference between the school ranked 5 and the school ranked 55? This doesn't make much sense.

Because it's a normal distribution with most of the population clustered near the median; and as you move towards the right, the distance between the schools become larger.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Where you unaware of the significant increase in applications since COVID? Did you think TO would have no effect on the applicant pool? Did anyone (e.g., college counselor) discuss yield projection for perceived "safety" schools? Do you consider the math/odds in applying to a school that accepts less than 20% of applicants? Did you discuss any of these issues with your kids before they applied? Or is it something else?

I heard there was expected to be a huge increase in applications but I wasn't sure what that impact would be. We figured that the schools would still look at tests for those students that did submit them. I remember seeing statistics showing that for TO schools in the prior year, the acceptance rate was higher for students that did submit test scores. We guessed that the increase in applications is mainly from students who are reaching at schools that they normally would not have applied to and that the schools will still find a way to admit students according to their normal standards. In short, we figured that TO was largely a form of virtue signaling. Apparently, we were wrong.

My kid's counselor was very reassuring to our kid regarding his chances of being accepted. Looking at the Naviance map for his ED school, his stats are in the heart of a cluster of checkmarks and only one X. Despite this, we applied to 20+ schools because ED/EA rounds completely shattered our preconceived notions. Now the counselor is voicing frustration and the sinking feeling that the students haven't been given adequate guidance this year. One student with a 3.6 GPA and 1350 SAT applied to a "normal" number of schools and did not get into any of them.

We did consider the math/odds but felt confident about our kid's stats, ECs, recommendations, and essay quality. Even if he has bad luck at one, two, three, or four schools, he should not have bad luck at 10 or 20 schools. We are engineers and we understand statistics; both of us are also in administrative roles and write documents targeted toward a variety of audiences so we understand the importance of connecting with the reader. I believe we were rationally optimistic based on the then-best-available information.

I do want to congratulate all the students that got into a school that they are happy with. It's a valuable opportunity and I wish them the very best.

And???

And is right.

And by the way, if this is a public school you're talking about, all you're doing is proving our point. A 3.6 GPA is inconsistent with a 1350 SAT score.

NP, still waiting to hear how a 3.6 is inconsistent with a 1350. Should the SAT score be lower or higher?

If a kid is doing 3.6 level work, then the SAT should be higher - at least 1400, and probably 1450. That's why I asked if it's a public school. A 3.6 at a public school is not the same as a 3.6 at a private.

DC had a bit of the opposite - 35 ACT and 3.5ish GPA. DC easily able to demonstrated consistent upwards progress in grades, but the first two semesters in the 3.2 range are a millstone around a GPA.

Again, public school or private school?

SOME private schools. I am personally familiar with the grade deflation at a Big 3. I get it. But not ALL private schools are like that. AOs know this. At a different private school, a high test score and lower GPA might signal that they aren’t working hard. You just can’t judge all privates the same.

[Anonymous]

Big schools (by student population) in urban, sort of urban and/or warm regions are SURGING in popularity.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Parent of a HS junior who is now terrified. Student has a 34 ACT and 4.3 WGPA, will have 10 APs total, so far all 5s on those taken in 9th and 10th.

Sounds like all the schools he thought were targets are actually reaches, what he thought were safetys are now targets, and I cannot imagine what actual safetys will be because he will be rejected for yield protection.

It is not entitlement, but there should be some expectation that if you do this, then you will get I
into that (isn't that the rubric they've been taught in MCPS from day one?!?)

He should have been cultivating some unique ground breaking interest with all his spare time. Or he could apply to some universities abroad that focus on grades.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Parent of a HS junior who is now terrified. Student has a 34 ACT and 4.3 WGPA, will have 10 APs total, so far all 5s on those taken in 9th and 10th.

Sounds like all the schools he thought were targets are actually reaches, what he thought were safetys are now targets, and I cannot imagine what actual safetys will be because he will be rejected for yield protection.

It is not entitlement, but there should be some expectation that if you do this, then you will get I
into that (isn't that the rubric they've been taught in MCPS from day one?!?)

He should have been cultivating some unique ground breaking interest with all his spare time. Or he could apply to some universities abroad that focus on grades.

Visit the safeties - many have incredible programs and kids will have an amazing experience if they really find one that appeals to them. But also be realistic. A 34 ACT is not the highest score out there. Did he really get all high As in his classes? The 5s on APs bode well but the stakes are much higher than when we were kids. I disagree with the posters who suggest doing stuff to get into school- that seems like a recipe for disaster or at least therapy. But I do think we all have to have realistic expectations that your kid is talented and awesome but the applicant pool is much bigger and more savvy than it used to be. FWIW, I do think your kid will get into a school that he can be really excited about attending at the end of the day that doesn’t feel like settling. But the days of long shots are over.